ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

Unchanged at 1AM, remains at 20%

[WeatherGuesser]

7AM, still 20%

[GCANE]

Not much left on WV.

Air is stabilizing; i.e. convective cap is in place; CINH = 27.

Looks like it is over.

[plasticup]

I really thought we had a shot at Hurricane Alpha this year, but without this picking up Virginie I don't see us getting there. Probably best for Nicaragua though!

[Sanibel]

It's definitely consolidated better, it just lost all of its convection (lol). Models failed to read the dry air that consumed it. Watching for very remote chance of refire.

[Ntxw]

It had a small window to organize but took too long. Heat content, and surface temps aren't conducive anymore in the area for development. Continues to cool off.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THE
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED THIS MORNING.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

[wxman57]

Bones can't take it any more.

[wxman57]

The end...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS LIMITED...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Ntxw]

Smooth sailing!

[cycloneye]

And here is the last nail on the coffin.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201011170518
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Sanibel]

Minor re-fire but conditions won't support it.

[HURAKAN]

94L is fighting!

[HURAKAN]

Looks interesting in the visible

[GCANE]

Looks like this was a shear-induced MCS.

Rain rate has been light but the area of coverage has expanded in the last 24 hrs.

A new anti-cyclone has developed close by.

It could be trying to transistion to a warm core.

Need to see how this goes in the next 24 hrs.

[GCANE]

Pressure is pretty high at the Yucatan Buoy.

[HURAKAN]

I have been looking at the visible loops and there's nothing I can see at the surface. It looks interesting but that's all for now! Persistence is always the key.

[HURAKAN]

Some of the posters in WU are going nuts arguing this is close to a tropical depression, if not one already. LOL

[GCANE]

Some of the posters in WU are going nuts arguing this is close to a tropical depression, if not one already. LOL

LOL.

Four letters: MSLP

[HURAKAN]

People tend to make the mistake sometimes that if looks like a depression, it must be a depression. Looks aren't everything.