The latest is out for us from the NWS...here is the forecast from the NWS for the Watertown/Fort Drum area:
Friday: Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after noon. High near 37. Breezy, with a west wind between 18 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Friday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. Breezy, with a west wind between 16 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Saturday: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a west wind between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
So, Friday and Friday night, 4 to 9 inches expected. My forecast isn't too shabby then (and a bit tighter, too).
The latest LES Warning:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EST THU NOV 25 2010
NYZ006>008-260500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.101126T2000Z-101128T0000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
400 PM EST THU NOV 25 2010
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY.
* LOCATIONS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INCLUDING JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND NORTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTIES.
* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FRIDAY EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR
THE ROUTE 3 CORRIDOR FROM WATERTOWN TO CARTHAGE AND HARRISVILLE
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE BAND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE TUG HILL REGION BEFORE MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO OSWEGO COUNTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATER FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST.
* WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
* VISIBILITIES: VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
IN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
* IMPACTS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE
VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.
&&
$$
HITCHCOCK/JJR/SAGE
And the latest AFD as well (7 pm):
...WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIR CROSSING THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE
GREAT LAKES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONCERNS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
SHALLOW /4-5 KFT DEPTH/ MOISTURE IN THE DRY SLOT AND DIURNAL
INFLUENCES MAY TEND TO KEEP THE ACTIVITY LIMITED IN SCOPE AS IT
TRIES TO GET ORGANIZED ON AN INITIAL WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...
EXPECT THE LAKE SNOWS TO GRADUALLY GET BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND
FETCH INCREASES...AND AS LARGER-SCALE MOISTURE STARTS TO SLOWLY
DEEPEN AGAIN...AS PER THE 12Z GEM/GFS WHICH CURRENTLY APPEAR TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE BANDS
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND SLOWLY
GAINING STRENGTH WITH TIME...ENOUGH TO PERHAPS DROP A FEW INCHES
DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES.
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY /SEE THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS/...HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS EAST OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ERIE AND
GENESEE COUNTIES. WHILE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WE CAN
EXPECT...FEEL ALL ZONES WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ARE AT LEAST SOME
RISK FOR WARNING-CRITERIA AMOUNTS. EVEN IF WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS
ARE ULTIMATELY NOT REALIZED IN SOME LOCATIONS...CONSIDERING THAT
THIS IS THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON...THE FACT THAT IT IS
OCCURRING ON A MAJOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT...THE WARNING IS EASILY JUSTIFIED BASED ON
POTENTIAL IMPACT ALONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE EARLY PART OF THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE VERY CHALLENGING AND
CRITICAL DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE
EFFECT BANDS FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THOSE GENERATED OFF LAKE ERIE
WHERE JUST A LITTLE WIND DIRECTION CHANGE CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE
OVER A HIGHLY POPULATED REGION.
THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR WILL BE A WELL STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A DEEP LAYER OF WELL ALIGNED WEST
TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND MINUS 10C WHICH WILL GIVE US MODERATE
INSTABILITY CONSIDERING LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 9C. THERE ARE SOME
CRITICAL DIFFERENCES IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.
OFF LAKE ERIE...THE NAM12 AND THE GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TARGETED SOUTH OF METRO BUFFALO AND BATAVIA BUT
THE GEM REGIONAL WOULD GIVE BUFFALO AND BATAVIA A HALF INCH OF QPF
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH OF THE LAKES AND THE FACT THAT
THE WINDS CLIMATOLOGICALLY BACK MORE THIS TIME OF YEAR BECAUSE OF
THAT FACT...WE WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS IN PLACE AS FAR
NORTH AS GENESEE AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP
EDGE THOUGH WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY STILL LIKELY SOUTH OF A
BUFFALO BATAVIA LINE.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE STEERING WINDS WILL VEER AS THE WELL STACKED
LOW MOVES EAST AND THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL MARCH SOUTHWARD AND
FAVOR THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WE HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT THE STEERING WINDS
ARE SOUTHWEST LONGER. WE ARE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WATERTOWN
WILL GET WARNING CRITERIA LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAN BUFFALO. STILL
THOUGH THE TUG HILL AREA WILL GET HIT THE HARDEST. THE WINDS WILL
VEER A FEW HOURS LATER THAN THE LAKE ERIE SCENARIO BUT THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR THROUGH THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WE WILL STILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES WILL BE
LOWER. WE WILL CARRY JUST A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS. WILL
KEEP POPS A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THERE MAY
BE SOME UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER US FROM THE WEST...