Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Today,I had a medical appointment, and from the time I came out of my house to the medical office,it was raining with a strong fresh breeze. When I came out of the office,guess what, it was raining again.It looks like a rather wet next 24 hours at least until the winds go down by next Wednesday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST MON NOV 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGING AT LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A NARROW ENLOGATED TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN FLATTEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC FRONT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS TPW IMAGERY
DOES NOT LONGER SHOW ANY CLEAR DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE TWO AIR
MASSES. MODEL FORECASTS OF H10-H85 THICKNESS...DEWPOINT AND LIFTED
INDEX DO NOT SHOW ANY GRADIENTS EITHER SUGGESTING THAT BDRY IS DISSIPATING.
HOWEVER...STRONG TRADES ARE GENERATING NMRS/FREQ SHOWERS OVR THE
NORTH COAST OF PR. THESE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS BEFORE MORE STABLE AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA TUE EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISH MID WEEK AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE MORE STABLE AND
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE SHRA CVRG AND INTENSITY.

RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE 25-KT WINDS OCCURRING AROUND 1800
FEET WITH NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURGE IN WINDS OCCURRING THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY TOMORROW. WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR ELEVS ABV 1500 FT BASED ON
RAOB/VWP AND ACARS AND VALIDATED BY FAA TECHS WORKING AT THE RADAR
SITE TODAY. RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY HAVE
PEAKED LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT JBQ/JSJ/IST/ISX POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
ENE WINDS 15G25KT.


&&

.MARINE...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT MAKING FOR VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 9-11
FT ON NE WIND WAVES. CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE UNTIL MID WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 60 40 60 60
STT 73 85 74 85 / 50 20 30 30

[msbee]

It's been raining here off and on all day too!
but just squalls coming in.
still not much rain accumulation
I am cold though!
LOL

[Gustywind]

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (if any)
for Mon Nov 22 2010 (rainfall 8pm Sun-8pm Mon)

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.4C 92F 31.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.5C 86F trace

Point Salines, Grenada 30.6C 87F 0.9mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.1C 86F 0.8mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 30.9C 87F 7.5mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.8C 86F 3.2mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 30.6C 87F 2.0mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.7C 82F 48.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.8C 84F 5.0mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.3C 83F 20.5mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.3C 85F 11.9mm
Kingston, Jamaica 31.4C 88F
Havana, Cuba 29.0C 84F
Nassau, Bahamas 27.0C 81F
Hamilton, Bermuda 23.1C 74F 5.6mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More of the same today, cool,windy and with scattered showers for PR-VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST TUE NOV 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NARROW
ELONGATED TROUGH AND A WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DEPICTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS MOVING
RAPIDLY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWESTWARD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. DUE TO THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. THE
EXPECTED STRONG TRADES...WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT BANDS OF
MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...THE GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE TPW MIMIC...SUGGEST THAT THIS DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA...WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL PATCHES
OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
STIES. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN
MVFR TO MIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST...TJNR AIRPORTS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LLVL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FROM THE ENE AT 15 TO 20 KTS...HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...BECOMING FRESH TO
MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
IN EFFECT FOR SOME OF THE LOCAL WATERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 40 60 60 20
STT 84 74 86 75 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

2010 rainfall total continues to get closer to the all time record of 87.55 inches.Here are the latest numbers after the .86 that fell yesterday in San Juan.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju//?n=rainfall2010

With the 0.86 inches of precipitation that fell at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport on November 22nd, 2010, a total of 81.79 inches of rainfall has accumulated at the airport since the first of the year. This total first surpassed the annual rainfall record at the Luis Muñoz International Airport back on the 7th of November (the previous record was 77.28 inches recorded back in 2005).

Code: Select all

Top 10 Wettest Years in the San Juan, PR Area


Rank
 Precipitation Amount  (inches)
 Year
 
1
 87.55 inches
 1931
 
2
 84.97 inches
 1950
 
3
 84.93 inches
 1927
 
4
 81.79 inches
 2010*
 
5
 78.96 inches
 1902
 
6
 77.61 inches
 1899
 
7
 77.28 inches
 2005
 
8
 76.60 inches
 1952
 
9
 75.70 inches
 1901
 
10
 74.55 inches
 1979
 


[cycloneye]

A great long weekend ahead for outdoor activities.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST TUE NOV 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS PR/USVI INTO NEXT WEEK. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NARROW ENLOGATED TROF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TIME
WITH RIDGING ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT SURPRISED ABOUT THE LACK OF SHRA ACTIVITY
OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON CONSIDERING THE SAME AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WIND FLOW. LOOKING BACK AT THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PAST 24 HRS SHOWS THAT AXIS OF 400-250 MB TROF AXIS HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO JUST SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA WITH MOISTURE GRADIENT ON WATER VAPOR NOW SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX INSTEAD OF ALONG 20N YESTERDAY. SO WE ARE LIKELY LOSING A
LOT OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY THAT HELPED TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS YESTERDAY.

MODELS SHOW DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PW VALUES NEAR 0.62
INCHES JUST UPSTREAM NEAR 21.5N AND 60W THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED IN ON EAST NORTHEAST WINDS. OVERALL...EXPECT A MUCH
QUIETER NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHRA
ONLY LEAVING TRACE AMOUNTS. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ITSELF OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS UNDER A VERY DRY AND STABLE PATTERN. VERY
LITTLE PRECIP IF ANY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS SEEM TO HAVE COME DOWN BASED ON RECENT ACARS SOUNDING WITH
20-KT WINDS MAINLY CONFINED TO 2KFT AND ABOVE. WILL REEVALUATE THE
SITUATION AGAIN SOON AND CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24
HOURS WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A QUICK PASSING SHRA OR
VCSH. LLVL WIND FLOW TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY AND BREEZY...AT 15 TO
25 KTS THROUGH 24/12Z...AND BECOME NE AT 10 TO 20 KT AFT 24/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...VERY ROUGH SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY BUOY
41053 WITH 9 FT SEAS AT 8 SECONDS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ANYTIME SOON WITH A MORE SIG SWELL EVENT EXPECTED FOR SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 83 / 20 10 20 20
STT 73 86 73 85 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Wind Advisory extended to 4 AM AST Wednesday

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 PM AST TUE NOV 23 2010

...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

PRZ002>004-006-007-009-240800-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-101124T0800Z/
NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR-
959 PM AST TUE NOV 23 2010

...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO ABOVE 1500 FEET UNTIL 4 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
REMAIN A BORDERLINE SITUATION...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO ABOVE 1500 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE
CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST WED NOV 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUSTAIN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIGRATORY HIGHS WILL HELP SUSTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING A DRIER AND STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN FACT...SATELLITE DERIVED MOISTURE ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN AREA OF 30-40 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AMOUNTS UPSTREAM OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL
LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IF ANY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE LOCAL
AREA AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN A MOISTURE
SURGE BY SATURDAY...INCREASING THE RISK OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS AND WAVES ARE
FORECAST WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL DAYS WITH
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

RECENT WSR-88D AND TDWR VWP DATA SUGGEST WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND A CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED AT 400 AM AST.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. LLVL
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH 24/18Z...AND
BECOME NE AT 10 TO 20 KT AFT 24/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT 500 AM AST...BUOY 41053
JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN INDICATED SEAS AROUND 7 FT AT 8 SECONDS.
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ANYTIME SOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 10 20 20 10
STT 85 74 86 72 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

A cold front will arrive by Saturday,but pleasant weather will rule for Thanksgiving day and Black Friday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST WED NOV 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY ISOLATED QUICK PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE
REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ONE
INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
RECOVERY BEFORE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL CAP SHOULD KEEP LID ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY SATURDAY...QUICKLY PROPAGATING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY SUNDAY. MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. NE WINDS 10-15KT NEXT FIVE
DAYS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY. CDFNT IS XPCD TO MOVE THRU
THE AREA SAT WITH ISOLD/SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...WHILE WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT...SWELLS GENERATED
FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL BRING LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 83 / 10 10 10 10
STT 73 85 73 86 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

I want to take this time to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving day!

[tropicana]

Regional Rainfall (7pmET Tue to 7pmET Wed) and Highs for
Wed Nov 24 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 25.1C 77F 26.0mm
Maraval, W. Trinidad 25.7C 78F 9.4mm
Crown Point, Tobago 27.0C 81F 8.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 84F 1.5mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.0C 86F 0.2mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.6C 85F 0.2mm
Le Lamentin, MArtinique 28.9C 84F

Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.8C 82F 1.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.5C 84F 0.4mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.2C 85F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 30.5C 87F
Havana, Cuba 29.0C 84F (low was 16.5C 62F)
Nassau, Bahamas 27.9C 82F
Hamilton, Bermuda 22.8C 73F 5.4mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 30.2C 86F 1.6mm
Flamingo, Bonaire 30.6C 87F 0.4mm

-justin-

[msbee]

I want to take this time to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving day!

Happy Thanksgiving Luis
and Happy Thanksgiving to all of you!

[chrisjslucia]

Why is that turkey smiling? Was the GFS model correct and Thanksgiving is postponed because of the weather? (Cycloneye - that is a serious question!)

[msbee]

Why is that turkey smiling? Was the GFS model correct and Thanksgiving is postponed because of the weather? (Cycloneye - that is a serious question!)

That's the turkey that President Obama pardoned!

[cycloneye]

Why is that turkey smiling? Was the GFS model correct and Thanksgiving is postponed because of the weather? (Cycloneye - that is a serious question!)

That's the turkey that President Obama pardoned!

Here is the pardoned turkey.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
933 PM AST WED NOV 24 2010

.UPDATE...VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS A DEEP RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO CANADIAN MARITIMES IS ADVECTING DRY
AND VERY STABLE AIR TOWARDS PR/USVI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEE NO REASON THAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL CONTINUE ALL SITES WITH A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WITH PASSING SHRA. ENE WINDS 10-20 KTS SFC TO
20 KFT TO ALSO PERSIST.

[cycloneye]

Good morning on this thanksgiving day.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST THU NOV 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AT MID LEVELS...STRONG RIDGE JUST NORTH OF CUBA
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SHALLOW FRONT WILL APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA
INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE STABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 10
PERCENT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. LACK OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. THEREFORE...
EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING
ISLANDS THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS THE NEXT
WEEKEND...AS A SHALLOW FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. IN ABSENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED
SHALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THEY WILL STAY WITHIN THE
MODERATE TO FRESH REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. LLVL
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH 26/00Z.
PASSING SHRA WILL REMAIN ISOLD.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASE AGAIN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING LARGE
SWELLS WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A
RESULT...HIGH SURF WITH ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD RAPIDLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 74 / 10 10 10 60
STT 84 73 85 77 / 10 10 10 50

[cycloneye]

Someone there knows that there is a cam in that beach and put the message of the day. Great weather for many in the Eastern Caribbean to be with your families eating the turkey.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST THU NOV 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED QUICK
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHY MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A WEEK COLD FRONT...WHICH CAN NOW BE
SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR 26 NORTH...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF A
SECOND COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER MINOR SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN NEXT 7-10 DAYS...WITH GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. NE WINDS 15G20KT DURING
THE DAY DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. CDFNT EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THRU THE AREA SAT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4-6 FT AT BUOYS 41053 AND
41043 RESPECTIVELY...AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE NEAR
TERM HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 72 84 / 20 20 60 60
STT 72 84 74 86 / 20 20 50 50