Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[CaptinCrunch]

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving!

At 6:30 am, looks like the polar front is stretched from Amarillo to just west of the Metroplex. 12 degrees in Dalhart at the moment ... bbrrrr!!!



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Have already reached high for today, Temps have now dropped into the upper 30's, currently sitting at 39 degrees with a strong north wind making it feel like 32. Looking at the first hard freeze of the season with a forecasted low of 27 tonight. Going to be damn nice to sit by the fireplace and sip on some tasty eggnog while watching football.

[orangeblood]

Anyone checked out the GFS 12Z run yet ? It depicting sub-freezing temps for over 100 consecutive hours across a large portion of the southern plains starting on December 7. It's more than likely in La La Land but impressive none the less - its been a long time since I've seen a crazy run like that. The GFS has shown something somewhat similar over the past couple of days...possible trend we may need to follow.

[iorange55]

Anyone checked out the GFS 12Z run yet ? It depicting sub-freezing temps for over 100 consecutive hours across a large portion of the southern plains starting on December 7. It's more than likely in La La Land but impressive none the less - its been a long time since I've seen a crazy run like that. The GFS has shown something somewhat similar over the past couple of days...possible trend we may need to follow.

Wow I've never seen that before. Bring it on.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have had some light freezing rain and sleet here in central Missouri today, but most of the precipitation has stayed just to my south and east so far. Definitely a cold Thanksgiving though, with temperatures currently hovering between 30-32F under overcast skies. Brrr..

Beyond the current cold wave, which should end by the weekend, it looks like the focus then shifts to the longer range once again. Another decent shot of cold looks likely down the plains for early/mid next week, followed by perhaps the chilliest airmass of the season so far during the first full week of December (see 12z GFS discussion by orangeblood and iorange55 above).

[Tireman4]

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving!

At 6:30 am, looks like the polar front is stretched from Amarillo to just west of the Metroplex. 12 degrees in Dalhart at the moment ... bbrrrr!!!

Have already reached high for today, Temps have now dropped into the upper 30's, currently sitting at 39 degrees with a strong north wind making it feel like 32. Looking at the first hard freeze of the season with a forecasted low of 27 tonight. Going to be damn nice to sit by the fireplace and sip on some tasty eggnog while watching football.

Bring it here. For the love of God, bring it to Houston, hurry...now....LOL

[TwisterFanatic]

Had and very nice glaze of ice on the trees and other elevated surfaces. Still there and will be there until tomorrow morning. Very, very cold day and even colder night,

[iorange55]

I think the 06z GFS had too much turkey

[Portastorm]

... and it was known as the Great Pearl Harbor Day Texas Blizzard!

I think you're right iorange ... too much turkey for the GFS. Time for a diet.

Edit update: It appears the 12z GFS continues munching on a lot of turkey.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fpc.shtml

[TwisterFanatic]

Going to be interesting to see if the GFS continues to show that storm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest ECMWF (00z) and GFS (12z) continue to look interesting for the southern plains around December 5th-7th. They do not look as crazy as yesterday's wild snowstorm deep into Texas; but for northern parts of the region, including Oklahoma, it looks as though there might be a storm system moving through around that timeframe that could bring a changeover to wintry-type precipitation on the backside.

This is still 200+ hours out though, so there is nothing to really get excited about just yet; and the details are almost guaranteed to change in the coming days. None the less, it is still worth keeping an eye on...especially If the models still show this once we are <168 hours out.

[frigidice77]

Did the models show snow in florida with that storm in deep texas yesterday?

[Ntxw]

Did the models show snow in florida with that storm in deep texas yesterday?

It didn't, but today's 12z GFS (way out in lala land) had a phantom storm for the southeast that showed wintry precip north of I-10/20ish. Doesn't look cold enough for the gulf coast. The recent trend of the GFS has a cold shot here, a cold shot there and maybe a rogue storm.

The euro is colder than the GFS lately but not much of a storm to go with it for the southern plains.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Did the models show snow in florida with that storm in deep texas yesterday?

It didn't, but today's 12z GFS (way out in lala land) had a phantom storm for the southeast that showed wintry precip north of I-10/20ish. Doesn't look cold enough for the gulf coast. The recent trend of the GFS has a cold shot here, a cold shot there and maybe a rogue storm.

The euro is colder than the GFS lately but not much of a storm to go with it for the southern plains.

The euro is actually showing a monster storm taking shape across the southern plains at the end of today's 12z run.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS240.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... TNA240.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... z/f240.gif

Cold air is being pushed south by a 1040-1045mb+ high to the north, a surface low is taking shape across northwest-central TX, and a potent upper level storm to the west is pumping in a southwest flow above. This would be a nice setup for rain turning to wintry precipitation across Oklahoma and north Texas if it came to pass.

Being 240 hours out though, it is still too soon to take anything like this seriously.

[Ntxw]

The euro is actually showing a monster storm taking shape across the southern plains at the end of today's 12z run.

Yeah I noticed that, very reminiscent of the GFS runs. I was answering the previous poster's question about previous runs (euro had it a tad further north).

The trend overall has been good for winter lovers early Dec. I think someone in the southern plains will see a snowstorm early next month (where it will go is the question of interest). Pattern looks conducive for it. The next few shots of cold air is laying down snow cover so modification will become lesser of an issue in the weeks to come.

[frigidice77]

Not trying to get off topic but doesnt the south have better chances of significant snow during la ninas. 1989-90 la nina. The south christmas freeze.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like the GFS and EURO still on it.

[wxman57]

Not trying to get off topic but doesnt the south have better chances of significant snow during la ninas. 1989-90 la nina. The south christmas freeze.

There was no La Nina in 1989-90. The Nino 3.4 temp in January of 1990 was +0.1 deg. It was a "neutral" winter. Current Nino 3.4 temp is -1.5 deg. THAT's a La Nina:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting section from this morning's OUN NWS forecast discussion...

THE COLD AIR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THOUGH...
AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE THAT COULD BRING WINTER
PRECIP TO THE AREA EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF AMPLIFY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN N AMERICA AND
ESTABLISH A LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH ALSO HAVE SOME SORT OF
SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE SW STATES INTO THE S PLAINS AROUND
NEXT MON-TUE... BY WHICH TIME THEY BOTH ALSO HAVE A SIZEABLE
CANADIAN SFC HIGH SUPPLYING COLD AIR TO MUCH OF THE CONUS E OF THE
ROCKIES. BOTH MODELS SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO OK MON-TUE - 4-9
INCHES OF IT IN THE CASE OF THE ECMWF. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT SWINGS IN THE MODELS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...
SO IT IS WAY WAY TOO EARLY TO EVEN TRY TO NAIL DOWN ANY OF
THIS. BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING IN LATER MODEL RUNS AS WE ARE
ABOUT DUE FOR SOME SORT OF WINTER WEATHER.

[frigidice77]

Did it just say 4-9 inches of snow in OKLAHOMA?????

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting for Ok City NWS to go out on a limb and even discuss something like that this early in the game.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it would seem that they have some fairly high confidence (as much as you can have this far out) that something is going to happen around the first of next week.