Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST FRI NOV 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...FRAGMENTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DERIVED TPW DATA REVEALS A
FRAGMENTED COLD FRONT LOCATED ABOUT 315 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...SPREADING BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL
SUSTAIN SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESTRENGTHEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING TO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 27/04Z. HOWEVER...VERY
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
IN TNCM...TKPK. LLVL WINDS NE 10 TO 20 KT WILL BECOME ENE AFT 26/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
RAPIDLY LATE TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS...
MODERATE TO LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS WITHIN THE
SURF ZONE. AS A RESULT...SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT LATER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 73 / 20 50 50 20
STT 84 73 87 77 / 20 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

chrisjslucia,how are things going there in terms of cleaning up the damage that Tomas did? I see cruise ships going to that island meaning that things are progressing good.

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Image updates



In another topic,GFS has backed off from the very wet scenario for the Windwards that it had by the last days of the month going to the first days of December. It still has some moisture during those days.

[chrisjslucia]

chrisjslucia,how are things going there in terms of cleaning up the damage that Tomas did? I see cruise ships going to that island meaning that things are progressing good.

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Image updates



In another topic,GFS has backed off from the very wet scenario it had by the last days of the month going to the first days of December. It still has some moisture during those days.

Morning Cycloneye, St Lucia is still recovering - some things will take a long time, especially in the South around Soufriere. Fond St Jacques was pretty much wiped out and those people who have stayed on are now housed in tents. The roads are open but will need major works over the coming months and power came back quickly but water is still a problem for many people. The country wasn't helped by the heavy rainfall over 2 days on the 18th / 19th of this month, just couldn't cope with the volume of water after the earlier flooding. Bexon, just south of Castries flooded again, as the river is higher than the road. Reports of water from Tomas vary but the figures on the national Met Office site for the first day - October 30th- were over 550mm of rain in Vieux Fort and around 515mm in Vigie (the 2 airports) in 24 hours. That is one hell of a lot of water, given the annual rainfall here is around 1350 to 1500 mm a year dependent on location. I've not seen a figure that includes the first 8 hours of the 31st as well, as Tomas was still dumping water until then.

Cruise ships are back, most schools have re-opened but many lost all their books and equipment. Most major hotels are up and running apart from Jalousie and Ladera in Soufriere and if you travel around the North, it is difficult to tell Tomas was here. As you go further south, then the damage is more evident.

People here are just getting on with it and trying to recover best they can. The loss of life was tragic but could have been much worse but generally buildings are well constructed here so water damage, flooding and mud are the big clean up items. I think there is a realisation we need to conserve our forestry better and review exactly what is built where and re-think how we use and conserve water. Also, people are vexed that there was so little warning of Tomas and its size and strength.

This is a film clip of Bexon on You Tube, following the rains on the 18th. The opening shots are of the road not the river!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kE5PqjSKrU4

Good news that GFS is backing off its previous forecast - we still need rainwater until our piped supplies are fully restored but not any torrential rain please!!

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

The 11/26/10 12z GFS came a little more moist for the southern Windwards,but not on the scale that the model had almost two weeks ago.

Also, people are vexed that there was so little warning of Tomas and its size and strength

That for sure was an important cause of the casualties that occured in that island.

Good summary from St Lucia,that shows there is still work to do.

[abajan]

The 11/26/10 12z GFS came a little more moist for the southern Windwards,but not on the scale that the model had almost two weeks ago...

Well, Grenada’s presently getting rain (some of it heavy) with thunder and judging by the moisture drifting in from the south in recent WV loops, we’re in for some of that later. The ITCZ looks pretty active in our area.

[cycloneye]

A high surf advisory will be in effect from early Saturday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST FRI NOV 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING AS A
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AHEAD THE REMNANTS
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT....WITH
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES HUNG AROUND NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO TODAY LONGER THAN EXPECTED...BUT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER SLOT OF AIR AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT
FILTERS IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT
TO REACH THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT...QUICK PASSING
SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW. BIGGER CONCERN IS DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING AT
6 AM AST TOMORROW MORNING.

AFTER THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORESEEN FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SECOND FRONT LIKELY TO
BRING A BRIEF...BUT MINOR...SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...A VCSH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ
THROUGH 26/22Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO
PUSH ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TOMORROW...WITH A -SHRA OR VCSH LIKELY
MOST SITES...AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS IN NE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS EVENING...BRINGING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF LOCAL COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THESE SWELLS WILL CREATE VERY ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING AT 6 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 73 84 / 10 50 20 20
STT 72 85 75 86 / 10 40 20 30

[cycloneye]

Abajan,surely that ITCZ is on fire so to speak. Let's see if our friend Firebird comes to report from Trinidad as it has rained a lot there in the past few days.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( 7pmET Thu-7pmET Fri) for
Fri Nov 26 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 25.7C 78F 50.0mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 25.3C 77F 17.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 28.3C 83F 39.1mm

Point Salines, Grenada 26.7C 80F 48.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.1C 84F 17.0mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 29.7C 86F 24.6mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 30.4C 86F trace

Melville Hall, Dominica 29.4C 85F 3.9mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.8C 86F 1.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.7C 84F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.6C 84F 0.2mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.2C 81F 0.8mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.7C 86F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.0C 88F
Havana, Cuba 29.1C 84F
Nassau, Bahamas 28.0C 82F

Hato Airport, Curacao 29.8C 86F 0.1mm
Queen Beatriz, Aruba 30.7C 87F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 30.3C 86F 1.2mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1012 PM AST FRI NOV 26 2010

.UPDATE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING. NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW...RESULTING
IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

NORTHERLY SWELLS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS
AND REEFS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM AST SUNDAY.
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN VERY ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHRA. WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU
SAT...E 10 TO 20 KT SFC TO 20 KFT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST SAT NOV 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND RETURNS FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH STRONGER WINDS BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA MOVES TO CUBA BY TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN
REMAINS ZONAL UNTIL A BROAD TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS IS ABSORBED INTO THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE HIGH MOVES TO NEWFOUNDLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FROM THIS HIGH FILLS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND STRETCHES INTO THE CARIBBEAN PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AFTER NEXT. A
WEAK LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS
GREATLY...WEAKENING THE GRADIENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING ON THE FIRST MONDAY OF DECEMBER AND
USHERING IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA REACHED
18.6 NORTH AND 60 WEST THIS MORNING...AND CROSSED SOUTH OF 20
NORTH DUE NORTH OF SAN JUAN...BUT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING
CONSIDERABLY. SHOWERS ARE VISIBLE ON RADAR ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
THE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MEANWHILE A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST PUERTO
RICO...LEAVING STREETS DAMP BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION. IT IS NOT
CLEAR THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT PATCHES OF VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR REACHES SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...MOISTURE ABRUPTLY
APPEARS IN THE GFS 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY DEPICTION JUST 6 HOURS
LATER AT 12Z ON SUNDAY...KEEPING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT...A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
FIRST IS SHOWN MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO FALL. COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES
TO SINK OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH A 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
MINIMUM OF 1389 METERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH THE SATURDAY MOS MAXIMUM COMING IN
AT 77 DEGREES FOR SAN JUAN...A FULL 7 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL
MAXIMUM FOR DECEMBER. SO FAR THE SCENARIO OF TRANSIENT HIGHS AND
PASSING FRONTS IS VERIFYING...BUT NOT SURE TEMPS CAN BECOME QUITE
SO COOL WITHOUT SOME RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE. LIGHT SHALLOW
SHOWERS IN MULTIPLE BANDS FROM THE COOL ADVECTION AROUND THESE
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH LESS SHOWERS FARTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OR
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHWRS...MAINLY
ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TIST. LLVL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FROM THE E AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
MARINE ZONE PEAKED AT 9.5 FEET JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUBSIDED
BELOW 8 FEET. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SEAS TO RISE AGAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO REGISTER IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE...AND WIND WAVES ARE ADDING CHOP TO THE SWELLS
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN RISE ABOVE 5.6
FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS. SEAS FALL OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN
THE ATLANTIC...BUT REMAIN AT OR NEAR 7 FEET UNTIL TUESDAY. THEN
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN...POSSIBLY GREATER THAN THE PRESENT ONE
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL
REPEAT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF DECEMBER AS STRONG LOWS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE IN THE MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC OUT THROUGH 10 DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...UNOFFICIAL LOWS IN PUERTO RICO ARE REACHING THE MID
60S IN CAGUAS AND CAYEY. THE OFFICIAL LOW SO FAR IN SAN JUAN HAS BEEN 70
DEGREES. THIS IS BELOW NORMAL...BUT THE RECORD IS 66 DEGREES SET
IN 1955 AND THIS RECORD WILL STAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 85 75 / 50 30 30 20
STT 85 74 87 76 / 40 20 30 20

[chrisjslucia]

The GFS model was not so far wrong in terms of a wet end to the month. The band of weather over Grenada and Trinidad has moved North and we are having torrential rain again this morning, after overnight showers. Looks as if this is going to be over us for some time as this seems to have a long tail - wish I could read wind charts properly!

[Gustywind]

The GFS model was not so far wrong in terms of a wet end to the month. The band of weather over Grenada and Trinidad has moved North and we are having torrential rain again this morning, after overnight showers. Looks as if this is going to be over us for some time as this seems to have a long tail - wish I could read wind charts properly!

Be safe and dry my friend. Thanks to keep us informed.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST SAT NOV 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THEN BECOME
FLATTENED AND WEAKEN ITS HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
AMPLIFIED AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY A COLD FRONT NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES TODAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE WEST ATLANTIC IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH FURTHER SOUTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONTAL
REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT HUNG UP JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE INDUCED NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT COOL AIR AND SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AND REACH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COASTAL SECTIONS FOR THE NORTHERNMOST ISLANDS DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.

THEREAFTER...AND FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LITTLE OF NO RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS.
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AN INCH
WITH LATEST AND FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDING...FOR TJSJ...SHOWING
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. IN ADDITION...WITH DEW POINTS WELL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT COOL AND FAIR WEATHER TREND TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY PASSING LATE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS... AND PLEASANT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE TO
SINK SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRONTAL MOISTURE AND COOLED TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY... AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND SHIFTS EASTWARD... TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A QUICK PASSING VCSH OR -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TJSJ
AND TJBQ THROUGH 28/14Z. LLVL ENE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 EXPECTED ALL
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC INDICATED THAT
SEAS PEAKED EARLIER TODAY...AND HAD SUBSIDED DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 8 FEET AT 14 SECONDS. EXPECT OVERALL SEA CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH CONTINUED SWELL ACTION IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH IN THE 16 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...WITH WIND WAVES CONTINUING TO MAKE
FOR CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE...A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT A BRIEF BUT GRADUAL DECLINE IN SEAS DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR 7 FEET UNTIL
TUESDAY. ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

[msbee]

what is that convection to the east? is that going to make it north to us?

[cycloneye]

what is that convection to the east? is that going to make it north to us?

No worries about that as it is a jet stream moving eastward with upper winds very strong. See loop below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( 7pmET-7pmET) for
Sat Nov 27 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.9C 89F 1.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.8C 87F 15.5mm
Point Salines, Grenada 28.5C 84F 20.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.4C 86F 20.0mm

Hewanorra Airport, St Lucia 29.9C 86F 40.5mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 28.0C 82F 6.4mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 28.3C 83F 4.4mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.0C 84F
VC Bird, Antigua 28.7C 84F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.5C 84F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.7C 87F
Havana, Cuba 28.7C 84F 1.0mm
Nassau, Bahamas 29.6C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 24.1C 76F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning.It turned out,the cause of the much rain in St Lucia and adjacent islands was a Tropical Wave that moved thru St Lucia and adjacent islands.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SUN NOV 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
COLLAPSE AS A TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TUESDAY.
AS A SECOND RIDGE APPROACHES...AFTER TUESDAY...IT WILL ALSO
COLLAPSE INTO ZONAL FLOW AS A LARGE AND DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE TO CUBA
BY TUESDAY. IT RETURNS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRIEFLY BEFORE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
FADE TODAY...BUT A MUCH STRONGER HIGH MOVING INTO NEWFOUNDLAND
TUESDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY ONLY A WEAK HIGH WILL BE LEFT JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. A VERY STRONG LOW FORMING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO NEXT
WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLOUD BAND THAT
DEMARCATED THE FRONT DISSIPATING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT THEN STREAMED ACROSS
THE AREA AND BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MAY HAVE KEPT THIS
FRONT FROM REACHING THE ISLANDS UNTIL THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN CROSSING THE NORTHEAST PART
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
WEAKENING HIGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MUCH THE SAME WEATHER AS HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY. AT PRESENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NEARLY ABSENT SO ALL SHOWERS ARE SHALLOW AND
LIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
ON TUESDAY 30/18Z. THE 850 MB FORECAST SHOWS THIS MOISTURE DELAYED
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE THE FRONT...WHICH COULD
BE RELATIVELY DRY...BUT RATHER COOL...MOIST AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT OUT OF THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL
MORE DAYS OF PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS. THEN BEGINNING THURSDAY WINDS
LIGHTEN AS A WEAK RIDGE BECOMES ALL THAT`S LEFT OF THE STRONG HIGH
OF TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE REMAINS INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK UNTIL A
STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSES A COL TO FORM IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THUS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE RAIN BROUGHT BY THE FRONT THE FOLLOWING
MONDAY MAY ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH 29/12Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN VERY ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHRA...MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...
TIST AND TNCM. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE AT 10 TO 20
KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT LOWER THAN THE
MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS AND ALL LOCAL BUOYS HAVE
BEEN REPORTING LESS THAN 7 FEET. ADDITIONALLY...AS OF 5 AM AST...BUOY
41043 REPORTED LESS THAN 6 FEET. THEREFORE HAVE CANCELED THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AND LOWERED ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO COME DOWN AT NOON. THE NEXT WAVE
TRAIN FROM STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
SUPPOSED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLDS MODELS MAY
BE OVER-FORECASTING AGAIN AND 10 FOOT SEAS SHOULD BE SEEN JUST
NORTH OF OUR OUTER WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 84 74 / 30 20 20 20
STT 84 74 86 75 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SUN NOV 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME FLATTENED AND
WEAKEN ITS HOLD...AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE
UNITED STATES...AND ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SECOND
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE MOISTURE FIELD ALONG
A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...FURTHER SOUTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADES INDUCED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FRAGMENTS OF SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAIRLY STABLE
CLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND FROM ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECT MAINLY PARTS OF
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO LATER THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
OVERALL FAIR AND PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL. BY WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE... AS WELL AS THE NAM BOTH
SUGGEST MOISTURE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO SINK
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF AREA SHOULD
ENHANCE SOME LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN BY MID WEEK. STILL DO NOT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL AT THIS TIME...AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL AND WEAKEN JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...SO DO NOT EXPECT
FROPA AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
IN A QUICK PASSING -SHRA OR VCSH...MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST
AND TNCM THROUGH 29/14Z. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY AND FROM
THE NE AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

[Macrocane]

Hi guys, I have not posted anything on the last few days because nothing has happened in El Salvador, no cold fronts, no rains, not extreme heat, temperatures in San Salvador have been 30°C the highs and 19°C the lows, but tonight finally something different is happening and moderate to heavy showers are moving just over the city tomorrow I will post the observations. By the way, on wednesday a cold front may reach the region so this week I may be posting observations again.