Shear is forecast to be favorable for 15 or 20 minutes during that timeframe.
La Nina, so you never can tell, but the pro-mets point out that models are horrible down here this time of year.
North of Panama, minimal model support
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tolakram
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North of Panama, minimal model support
Someone has to mention ....
Shear is forecast to be favorable for 15 or 20 minutes during that timeframe.
La Nina, so you never can tell, but the pro-mets point out that models are horrible down here this time of year.
Shear is forecast to be favorable for 15 or 20 minutes during that timeframe.
La Nina, so you never can tell, but the pro-mets point out that models are horrible down here this time of year.
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M a r k
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cycloneye
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Re: North of Panama, minimal model support
Mark.you are not alone as NHC mentions it too.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: North of Panama, minimal model support
FWIW the GFS has been very consistant predicting the development of this system though it needs more support from other models IMO.
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Florida1118
Re: North of Panama, minimal model support
Eh well you never know we might get Virginie this year after all...and off topic but Why didnt they put TD's in their seasonal maps?
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Hurricanehink
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AdamFirst
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Re: North of Panama, minimal model support
Check the NHC one final time and there's a yellow blob on the map. Crazy.
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Ad Novoxium
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Re: North of Panama, minimal model support
How ironic if this forms:
A post by jinftl back in March wrote:I am a sucker for storm names that just seem destined to make great news headlines....so for that reason, I expect that the following storms will be the newsmakers this upcoming season....because headlines like these are just too media-ready to go unused in this day and age:
[...]
Yes Virginie, there is a hurricane in December
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Crostorm
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Re: North of Panama, minimal model support
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...JUST NORTH OF PANAMA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD GRADUALLY WESTWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...JUST NORTH OF PANAMA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD GRADUALLY WESTWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Re: North of Panama, minimal model support
And that will end the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season...
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON. ISSUANCE OF THIS
PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2011. SHOULD THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
DEVELOP FURTHER...OR ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP
DURING THE OFF-SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WOULD BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED UNDER THE SAME WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC...AND AWIPS
HEADER MIATWOAT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON. ISSUANCE OF THIS
PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2011. SHOULD THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
DEVELOP FURTHER...OR ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP
DURING THE OFF-SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WOULD BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED UNDER THE SAME WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC...AND AWIPS
HEADER MIATWOAT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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tolakram
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Re: North of Panama, minimal model support
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M a r k
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tolakram
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- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: North of Panama, minimal model support
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5
Still firing and some consolidation plus banding (or the appearance of banding) is showing up. Model support seems to be drying up though.
Still firing and some consolidation plus banding (or the appearance of banding) is showing up. Model support seems to be drying up though.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: North of Panama, minimal model support
Storm loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5
Rotation appears to be over land.
Ripples: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10
Rotation appears to be over land.
Ripples: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10
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M a r k
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yes, it appears to be slowly moving south and now it's inlandWho is online
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