Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[frigidice77]

Accuweather has a wintry mix for charlotte Nc dec 7 night and dec 8 morning. But their forecast changes alot. Still a sign of things to come.

[Ntxw]

Interesting for Ok City NWS to go out on a limb and even discuss something like that this early in the game.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it would seem that they have some fairly high confidence (as much as you can have this far out) that something is going to happen around the first of next week.

It's not always a bad thing to point out a forecast when models are persistent at bringing in something and the pattern matches that of events in analog years which to an extent this does via blocking. After all it is Oklahoma, and snow is not uncommon. Now for the Texas side confidence is much less. I'd go out on a limb and say there will be a storm. But as usual the further north you are the better it will be for chances.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Let the usual model flip flopping begin..

The 12z GFS loses the storm.

UPDATE: The 12z ECMWF, on the other hand, does not. See the discussion going on below.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Op Euro is going to raise some eyebrows.

[Ntxw]

The 12Z Op Euro is going to raise some eyebrows.

I see how it bombs a storm in the southwest, deepens it, and cuts it off, very cold indeed, if this were to verify you would have a major winter storm all over the southern plains. Cold air is also coming in prior to the storm. Beautiful to look at. Maybe the trend will continue on the EC...if only it wasn't so far out.

[frigidice77]

Does it have snow as far south as corpus christi texas?

[wxman57]

10-day GFS & Euro are complete opposites as far as the location of trofs/ridges across the U.S. Which is right? Give it another 5 days or so for the models to come to agreement. I wouldn't buy either solution yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nice trends with the 00z model runs tonight. The GFS looks to be back on board with a southern to central plains winter storm early/mid next week, and the ECMWF continues to be on board as well (though much more progressive with the system than the 12z run).

[wxman57]

AccuWeather has a wintry mix for Charlotte NC Dec 7 night and Dec 8 morning. But their forecast changes a lot. Still a sign of things to come.

That free/public AccuWeather long-range "forecast" is nothing more than raw GFS model data. It's not seen, touched or edited by a meteorologist. The forecast changes a lot because every GFS run can be quite different.

[Portastorm]

Wow ... did y'all see the massive Southern Plains snowstorm for next week progged by the 12z GFS? Right, neither did I.

The GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away.

[HockeyTx82]

Wow ... did y'all see the massive Southern Plains snowstorm for next week progged by the 12z GFS? Right, neither did I.

The GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away.

What did I miss? I sense some sarcasm here................

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is going to again raise some eyebrows.

[Ntxw]

Crazy how 12z Euro is so persistent at making a significant winter storm. Every major city in the Southern plains from OKC south would be in it...if only the GFS was more consistent with it too sigh...

[orangeblood]

It appears the GFS runs of late have no idea how to handle the energy coming out of the southwest early next week. Has this been a GFS problem in the past and what do some of the pro mets on here think will happen with this energy coming out of the Southwest early next week ?

[Ntxw]

It appears the GFS runs of late have no idea how to handle the energy coming out of the southwest early next week. Has this been a GFS problem in the past and what do some of the pro mets on here think will happen with this energy coming out of the Southwest early next week ?

Tonight's 0z GFS actually has a shortwave for that time frame but isn't very strong with it. Very different than the 18z with nothing . It's having a lot of trouble depicting what will happen out in the Pacific. I'd say the GFS is on vacation. Even though I think the euro is a bit extreme, it's been somewhat consistent on a digging trough though, just varies run to run on location and strength.

And the GFS has been notorious for sniffing stuff out long term, losing them medium range only to bring it back for short term.

[TwisterFanatic]

It appears the GFS runs of late have no idea how to handle the energy coming out of the southwest early next week. Has this been a GFS problem in the past and what do some of the pro mets on here think will happen with this energy coming out of the Southwest early next week ?

Tonight's 0z GFS actually has a shortwave for that time frame but isn't very strong with it. Very different than the 18z with nothing . It's having a lot of trouble depicting what will happen out in the Pacific. I'd say the GFS is on vacation. Even though I think the euro is a bit extreme, it's been somewhat consistent on a digging trough though, just varies run to run on location and strength.

And the GFS has been notorious for sniffing stuff out long term, losing them medium range only to bring it back for short term.

Yea, the exact same thing happened for the Thanksgiving winter precip.

[Ntxw]

0z euro (finally) is in line with the 12z run showing a snowstorm in Oklahoma and Texas (Dallas to Waco and maybe further south, not real sure about temperature profiles in SE Texas with a close call) should it verify early/mid next week.

Also looking at some precip amounts from Accuwx site, it would be one heck of a snowstorm too...IF

[TwisterFanatic]

Just watched the news replay, and the meteorologist is worried about a Major Winter Storm during the middle of next week.

[TwisterFanatic]

Well, to my surprise i just stepped outside, and it is spitting flurries right now.

[somethingfunny]

Well, to my surprise i just stepped outside, and it is spitting flurries right now.

Lucky!!!!

Fort Worth just released their AM Discussion and it's much more interested than they've been thus far:

THE SECOND PART OF THIS FORECAST CONCERNS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT
SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH COLD AIR
IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
WINTER PRECIP. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED NORTH
40N LATITUDE...AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS
SHOULD ENSURE A PROGRESSIVE MOTION TO PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ONLY
ADD MORE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH WINTER WEATHER NEXT TUESDAY...SHOWING A CLOSED/POTENT UPPER
LOW...BUT IS OFTEN TOO STRONG WITH THESE FEATURES BEYOND DAY 5.
THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER SOLUTION THAT WOULD BRING
NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS UNLIKELY...HAVING
LITTLE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT OR BACKING FROM THE CANADIAN/UKMET. SINCE
MODELS ARE OFFERING NO HELP...IT IS USEFUL TO NOTE THAT THERE IS A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL FOR THIS TYPE OF UPPER PATTERN TO PRODUCE
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. MOST OF THE PREVIOUS EVENTS SHOWED
THESE PACIFIC SHORTWAVES CAME ACROSS AS OPEN TROUGHS AND NOT
CLOSED LOWS...AGAIN SUGGESTING THE ECMWF IS OVERDONE. CLIMO ALSO
SAYS THIS PATTERN HAS A HARD TIME GETTING THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLED
BELOW FREEZING AS POLAR TRAJECTORY IS NOT OPTIMAL...BUT OBVIOUSLY
THIS WAS/IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. EITHER
WAY THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND ITS UNLIKELY MODELS
WILL SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS. IF I HAD
TO ASSIGN A CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER IN THE CWA AT THIS POINT...I
WOULD SAY ABOUT 1 OR 2 CHANCES IN 20.