SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[jasons2k]

I got down to 31F last Saturday night. There was some mild freeze burn on the tops of the bananas but that was all.

I was standing outside earlier this evening just as the front came through. I was telling my neighbor 'that front should come through this location at any minute'. Within seconds, we heard the trees rustle and I felt a puff of cool wind on my face. Then the wind shifted to the north with a steady breeze. It feels pleasant - for now at least. Looks like a another decent cold shot on the way...sure seems odd for a La Nina winter.

[vbhoutex]

Wind has been out of the North for quite a while here, but the temp has only dropped one degree to 68f. the cold air must be lagging behind the front by quite a bit.

[pwrdog]

Some pretty good sleet falling this morning around lake livingston... Temp at 48.2 F..

This is a unexpected...?? but nice to see... Must be some pretty cold air a few thousand feet up..

[srainhoutx]

There was mention of some possible sleet in the Lufkin area as the Upper Air disturbance pulled away this morning. Congrats!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
616 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

.UPDATE...

TO INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLEET AND LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE
THAN ONE REPORT OF LIGHT...MELTY SLEET. TWEAKED SKY AND POP/WX.

[jasons2k]

Up in the Spring area, 7:50 this morning, it was 52 degrees outside........and sleeting.

It only lasted for about 30 seconds, but I was sitting at a stoplight on Riley Fuzzel road and sleet pellets starting pinging on my car. Not slushy either - they were rock solid sleet pellets. And just as quickly as it started....it stopped.

Pretty amazing stuff - that's for sure!

[Flyinman]

WOW! Just saw this on the weather forecast for next week:

Wed
Dec 8

Scattered Snow Showers

49°
39°
40%
49°F

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well we did not get any sleet today but did read a interesting long range discussion for our area next week(Baton Rouge).
I know this goes in realtion to the winter storm thread for the plains but since it is for south LA I will put it here.


THIS IS WHERE
THINGS GET INTERESTING...DEPENDING ON WHICH GLOBAL SOLUTION YOU
LIKE.

BOTH THE EURO AND THE NORTH AMERICAN SUITES ARE INITIALIZING VERY
WELL. THEREFORE...MUST GO WITH EXPERIENCE AS WE APPROACH THE END
OF THE 7TH DAY GOING INTO THE 8TH DAY. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS DIG AN
UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH BUT THEY DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE
UPPER CUT OFF LOW OUT OF THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE SW. THE GFS
ERODES THE LOW WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT IN TACT. THE IN TACT
SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKELY SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER HIGH. THE UPPER LOWS WOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH TEMPS THAT ARE WARMER THAN ITS CORE WHICH WOULD
CAUSE IT TO STAY TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EAST. IT WOULD THEN OPEN UP
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SINCE THE TEMP STRUCTURE
BETWEEN THEM WILL BE OF LITTLE DIFFERENCE. THIS IS THE EURO
SCENARIO. NOW COMES THE BIG PROBLEM...BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF
THIS UPPER LOW STAYS IN TACT...WHICH IT SHOULD...A STRONG GULF LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL SLING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
BACK OVER THIS COLD AIR BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OBVIOUSLY...TIMING
AND A BUNCH OF OTHER THINGS CAN AND PROBABLY WILL CHANGE WITH THIS
BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO BE WEARY OF AS WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEK.

[southerngale]

Had a low of 28° this past Friday night (Sat. morning) and a low of 34° Saturday night (Sun. morning) - brrrrr!!

So far, I'm not enjoying the cold weather like I always have. I'm always cold and trying to warm up. Just give me some warm sunshine, shorts, & flip-flops and I'm a happy girl. lol

I did enjoy the fireplace this past weekend, though... first time I've lit it up this year.


But... if it's gonna be cold anyway, I hope I can get some snow to play in. Otherwise, it's just wasted discomfort.

[Tireman4]

Had a low of 28° this past Friday night (Sat. morning) and a low of 34° Saturday night (Sun. morning) - brrrrr!!

So far, I'm not enjoying the cold weather like I always have. I'm always cold and trying to warm up. Just give me some warm sunshine, shorts, & flip-flops and I'm a happy girl. lol

I did enjoy the fireplace this past weekend, though... first time I've lit it up this year.


But... if it's gonna be cold anyway, I hope I can get some snow to play in. Otherwise, it's just wasted discomfort.

You betcha Gale!!!

[vbhoutex]

Already down to 41f here at the house. Could get interesting tonight. Progged to only 32f in my area, but I'm wondering if that is going to bust?
Now the question is are the models going to bust for next week or are we going to have snow in December for the 4th(?) year in a row. Watching with interest to say the least. Not about to predict it will happen yet!!!

[BigB0882]

I can not believe there is a chance, even if slim, for snow. This would make the 3rd or 4th December in a row for snow. If it pans out, then this would be a bit earlier than the last few years and continue to break the record for earliest snow fall in Baton Rouge. It was Dec 13, then I think it was Dec 11 and now, maybe the 8th? lol Unreal...

[vbhoutex]

Already down to 41f here at the house. Could get interesting tonight. Progged to only 32f in my area, but I'm wondering if that is going to bust?
Now the question is are the models going to bust for next week or are we going to have snow in December for the 4th(?) year in a row. Watching with interest to say the least. Not about to predict it will happen yet!!!

already down to 30..6f @ 1:24am. Looks like another bout of several hours below freezing as opposed ot a couple of hours at or near freezing as predicted. Guess I'll just have to start assuming the worst with these and hoping for the best if the plants survive this night too.

[southerngale]

David, it seems like it's just always going to be a little colder than predicted. My low for tonight is supposed to be 30° and it's 29° right now. It's been steadily dropping all night and who knows if it's done?

I still haven't had a chance to read about this possibility of snow. I keep making drive-by visits online and I'm not getting much sleep these days either, so I'm always tired. I really need to slow down!

[vbhoutex]

Slow down woman!! It was 26.6f for the low this am and we were once again below freezing for over 8 hours. I need to look at the snow possibilities/probabilities a lot closer, but with a few models it is almost becoming a "trend". The cold shot is almost a definite. The question is whether the short wave coming in after the cold shot either holds together and pulls up enough moisture over the cold or if it causes a surface low in the NW GOM that throws the needed moisture up over the cold. I've definitely become more "concerned" vs just saying "yeah right".

[wxman57]

Models (that is, the Euro) are trending away from any frozen precip threat along the Gulf Coast. The Euro is now more in line with the Canadian and GFS indicating little or no precip in the cold air. I didn't really believe the Euro for the past 2-3 days, as it's been an extreme outlier in predicating a significant freezing/frozen precip event down here. But it is the time of year when such events can happen.

[wxman57]

As the event draws nearer, models are actually indicating a little less cold air than they were earlier. GFS still doesn't forecast any precip, nor does it forecast any freezing temps in Houston. A few clouds Tuesday night with the passing disturbance is all it forecasts. Canadian is a bit colder and wetter, but still looks like some light rain at best:

[vbhoutex]

Wow! This is the first I have been online today. Things sure have changed!! That is a lot warmer than what was being predicted. I'll be interested to see if the local OCM's follow suit or stick by their upper 20's.

[vbhoutex]

Well we had our third freeze of the season this am at 31f and expect another tomorrow I think. I'm starting to wonder if La Nina knows what it is supposed to do to the weather. Fortunately this freeze wasn't long like the other two.

[CajunMama]

Hard freeze warning for central LA tonight with my area just expecting a freeze warning (north Lafayette parish on the borderline) with the low to be around the upper 20's. Brrrrrrr!

[srainhoutx]

41 last hour at Hooks. That is a bit lower than I was expecting at this time of the early evening...

Code: Select all

2010.12.06 2353 UTC 
Wind  Calm 
Visibility  10 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  clear 
Temperature  41.0 F (5.0 C) 
Dew Point  30.9 F (-0.6 C) 
Relative Humidity  67% 
Pressure (altimeter)  30.35 in. Hg (1027 hPa) 
Pressure tendency  0.03 inches (0.9 hPa) lower than three hours ago 
ob  KDWH 062353Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 05/M01 A3035 RMK AO2 SLP278 T00501006 10128 20050 56009