Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST MON NOV 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG LOW PRESSURES IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BOIL AT MID LATITUDES...BUT ONLY WEAK AND
VERY BROAD TROUGH PASSAGES ON THEIR PERIPHERIES WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA NAMELY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO CUBA BY TONIGHT AND
RETURN ONLY WEAKLY ON THURSDAY. BROAD TROUGHING FROM A STRONG MID
LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LOW WILL EXTEND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL NEXT MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
MOVE BEYOND NEWFOUNDLAND BY WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
CARRYING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF THE UNITED STATES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IT WILL BE PUSHED
ASIDE BY A STRONG TROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR CONTINUED TO SPAWN
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT BRUSHED THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WERE SLIGHT WHERE THEY
OCCURRED. THE 00Z SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 800 MB
AND THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH VARIATIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 8 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FORMING A VERY NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TOMORROW THAT WILL SHUNT A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF COOL AIR TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
USHER IN ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY SPAWN A FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
AND KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WITH SO LITTLE
MOISTURE IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS THOUGH...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
MEAGER AND SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.

PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFERING
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS HINT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE CIRCULATION WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
ABOUT THE ONLY EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. THEN BANDS
OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER BOUNDARY RIDING INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DRIVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A COOLING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT OF
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THAT THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT MOISTURE MAY SURGE AND WARMER MORE TROPICAL
AIR MAY RETURN AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 30/03Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PASSING -SHRA OR VCSH. LLVL NE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS... WITH
SURFACE OCNL WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE EXPERIENCED...ESPECIALLY
IN AND NEAR PASSING SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT TOO HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. NEVERTHELESS SOME INCREASE IN SEAS
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ATLANTIC WATERS BACK INTO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CATEGORY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 73 / 20 20 30 30
STT 84 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

Yesterday the central part of El Salvador had moderate rains but they only lasted for about 20 or 30 minutes so the amounts are not very high. These were the temperatures and rainfall registered yesterday:

Temperatures
Acajutla min: 23.4°C (74.1°F) max: 30.5°C (86.9°F)
San Salvador min: 19.5°C (67.1°F) max: 29.8°C (85.6°F)
El Pacayal min: 15.1°C (59.2°F) max: 24.5°C (76.1°F)
San Miguel min: 20.8°C (69.4°F) max: 35.3°C (95.5°F)

Rainfall
San Salvador Volcano 19.8 mm/0.78 inches
Santa Tecla 16 mm/0.63 inches
San Andres 8 mm/0.31 mm
San Salvador 3.5 mm/0.14 inches

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST MON NOV 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC... AND A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WILL HELP MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITHOUT THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN REACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRAGMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANDS NORTH
AND NORTH EAST OF THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED SOUTH
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEING STEERED
BY THE FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...SOME OF THE CLOUD
FRAGMENTS WILL BRING INTERVALS OF MOSTLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH...EXPECT SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA ...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH EASTERLIES WILL BRING FAIRLY
DECENT AMOUNTS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AND FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
PASSING SHOWERS AND SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... EXPECT MOSTLY STRATIFORM TYPE CLOUDINESS WITH
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS WITH A QUICK PASSING VCSH OR -SHRA POSSIBLE
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...MAY SEE A VERY BRIEF MVFR CIG INA
FEW OF THESE QUICK PASSING -SHRAS. LLVL ENE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20
KTS...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS...EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL PASSAGES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TRADE WIND WILL CREATE
CONFUSED AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 73 82 / 20 30 30 30
STT 72 84 73 83 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

I saved the graphic of the GFS model from November 14 at long range and you can see why sometimes, the models get some bad feedback of data and not perform greatly.We would be dealing right now with Tropical Storm Virginie in the Lesser Antilles.Having said that,GFS has been the best model in 2010 and that is indisputable.

[cycloneye]

Those with marine interests in the NE Caribbean have to read this message.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST MON NOV 29 2010

...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS...AND LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY...WILL RESULT IN CONFUSED AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS.

AMZ710-301015-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0078.101130T2200Z-101202T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
1014 PM AST MON NOV 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO
8 PM AST WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
6 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Good morning.The winterlike breezes,high seas and temperatures will continue in Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST TUE NOV 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARDS TODAY REACHING THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
ON SHORE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WERE REPORTED.

A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...USVI AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A DRY POCKET BEHIND THIS
PATCH OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER COVERAGE FOR MOST
OF TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE ON
SHOWERS AND WINDS STARTING TONIGHT. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS WITH A QUICK PASSING VCSH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. LLVL ENE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
EVEN MORE AS A LARGE NE SWELL WILL START TO REACH THE LOCAL OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND REACH THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWO WIND
SURGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE FIRST WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE OLD COLD FRONT BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AND THE SECOND SURGE WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
WIND SURGES WILL COMBINE WITH THE NE SWELL AND PRODUCE A DANGEROUS
SEAS CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE NE SWELL IS
FORECAST TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.

[chrisjslucia]

Last day of the season and no sign of any late surprises as far as I know. Semi overcast but sunny day in St Lucia, nice breeze keeping us cool and the Caribbean is still looking choppy. The Atlantic Race for Cruisers (ARC) is underway and the first arrivals are expected in a few days time. The crick in my neck from permanently looking East for the next system should fade away soon.

Thanks to all the Moderators, members and organisers of Storm 2K - couldn't have coped with the season without your advice, opinions and support. Thanks in particular to:
Ivanhater
BVI Gal
Cycloneye
Gustywinds
Abajan
Wxman 57
Southerngale
KWT

Take care one and all. Personally, I'm simply glad to be here and not freezing my **** off in England and all that snow!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST TUE NOV 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SECTIONS OF NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF AN
OLD COLD FRONT STARTING TO SINK SOUTHWARD PAST 20N THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FRONT...WITH
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH...AND A RETURN TO GENERALLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER BY THURSDAY.
THE REMNANTS OF A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A MUCH
MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POSSIBLE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENDED
FORECAST...AND OPTED TO REMAIN WITH MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS OR OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUICK PASSING VCSH OR -SHRA
WILL REMAIN PSBL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FM 30/21Z-01/12Z.
HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.
LLVL ENE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS...SFC-150K FT BCMG NRLY AND
BACKING WITH HEIGHT. OCNL SFC WND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS PSBL AT LOCAL
TAF SITES AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS AT LEAST TIL 30/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON WEDNESDAY...AND
PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS GENERATING LARGE WIND WAVES IN ADDITION TO LONG
PERIOD SWELL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THESE LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL ALSO GENERATE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Last day of the season and no sign of any late surprises as far as I know. Semi overcast but sunny day in St Lucia, nice breeze keeping us cool and the Caribbean is still looking choppy. The Atlantic Race for Cruisers (ARC) is underway and the first arrivals are expected in a few days time. The crick in my neck from permanently looking East for the next system should fade away soon.

Thanks to all the Moderators, members and organisers of Storm 2K - couldn't have coped with the season without your advice, opinions and support. Thanks in particular to:
Ivanhater
BVI Gal
Cycloneye
Gustywinds
Abajan
Wxman 57
Southerngale
KWT

Take care one and all. Personally, I'm simply glad to be here and not freezing my **** off in England and all that snow!

You can continue to report about how is the weather in St Lucia,even if hurricane season is over,because this thread is for that all year around. Thank you for those words.

[Gustywind]

Last day of the season and no sign of any late surprises as far as I know. Semi overcast but sunny day in St Lucia, nice breeze keeping us cool and the Caribbean is still looking choppy. The Atlantic Race for Cruisers (ARC) is underway and the first arrivals are expected in a few days time. The crick in my neck from permanently looking East for the next system should fade away soon.

Thanks to all the Moderators, members and organisers of Storm 2K - couldn't have coped with the season without your advice, opinions and support. Thanks in particular to:
Ivanhater
BVI Gal
Cycloneye
Gustywinds
Abajan
Wxman 57
Southerngale
KWT

Take care one and all. Personally, I'm simply glad to be here and not freezing my **** off in England and all that snow!

Thanks for these words my friend i appreciate

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST TUE NOV 30 2010

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWED THE REMNANTS
OF AN OLD COLD FRONT STARTING TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
RESULT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS BOUNDARY. A RETURN TO A GENERALLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS OR OPERATIONAL
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUICK PASSING VCSH OR
-SHRA WILL REMAIN PSBL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FM 01/04-01/12Z.
HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.A High Surf Advisory will be in effect from 12:00 PM.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST WED DEC 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SECTIONS OF
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH A RETURN TO
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON
SHORE AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
ADJACENT ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND DISSIPATE.

ONCE AGAIN A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS AREA
WILL BE ARRIVING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AT MID AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE SHOWER PROBABILITY. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS.

OUR MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST EXPOSED BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS OR OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUICK PASSING VCSH OR -SHRA WILL REMAIN PSBL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FM 30/21Z-01/12Z. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. LLVL ENE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS...SFC-
150K FT BCMG NRLY AND BACKING WITH HEIGHT. OCNL SFC WND GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS PSBL AT LOCAL TAF SITES AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS AT LEAST TIL
30/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...CONFUSES MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY. ALSO A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7 AND
9 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES. THESE
SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST THE INCOMING WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH THE WW3 SUGGEST THIS SWELL EVENT TO GENERATE BEAKING
WAVES OF BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA...THE NORTHERN BUOYS ARE
REPORTING ENOUGH ENERGY TO GENERATE NEAR OR ABOVE HIGH SURF
CRITERIA AS THESE SWELLS REACH THE LOCAL COASTS. THE 41043 IS
REPORTING 9 FEET AT 15 SECONDS AND THE 41044 IS REPORTING 11.2
FEET AT 15 SECONDS. ENOUGH ENERGY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE
BREAKING WAVES OF ABOVE 10 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COAST OF VIEQUES WILL BE
LARGER THAN NORMAL...THE HEIGHT OF THE BREAKING WAVES WILL NOT
MEET THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 70 / 10 10 10 0
STT 84 72 83 72 / 10 10 10 10

[BZSTORM]

today we get cold front for dec 1st, season done for us thankful it wasn't as bad as it could have been.
Luis just found some cams for Placencia area these are North on the peninsula, best you post them as I don't know how.
http://www.aplaceinbelize.com/
see you all next season, just hope we don't get any freak winter/spring storms this coming year keep safe everyone in meantime

[cycloneye]

today we get cold front for dec 1st, season done for us thankful it wasn't as bad as it could have been.
Luis just found some cams for Placencia area these are North on the peninsula, best you post them as I don't know how.
http://www.aplaceinbelize.com/
see you all next season, just hope we don't get any freak winter/spring storms this coming year keep safe everyone in meantime

Posted at first post of the thread as a hyperlink,the cams from Placencia. I am glad that nothing very bad occured during the hurricane season over there. You can continue to come and post about anything that you may consider is important that may occur weatherwise in Belize on the next 6 months before the 2011 season starts.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST WED DEC 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH...NWS
DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER LAND
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW FRONT
NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE QUITE RAPIDLY AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS A RESULT...A SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
WITH LOW PWAT VALUES EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. BY
FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO EXPECTED EACH
MORNING...AS PATCHY SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. BETTER CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED BY THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND THE NEXT WEEK... WHEN A SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

BIGGER CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT...PEAKING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS OR OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET...WITH LARGE BREAKING
WAVES UP TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS...IN ADDITION
TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS
AND REEFS OF PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND ST
CROIX IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AT 10 PM AST.

[Macrocane]

As BZSTORM said above, a cold front reached Central America today. Last week and this week have been quiet warm but the high pressure behind the front is producing strong to moderate winds and thankfully the temperatures are going to drop on the next few days. These are the temperatures registered yesterday in El Salvador (some of the warmest of the month):

Temperatures
Acajutla min: 23.6°C (74.5°F) max: 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Santa Ana min: 19.0°C (66.2°F) max: 30.8°C (87.4°F)
San Salvador min: 19.1°C (66.4°F) max: 30.9°C (87.6°F)
El Pacayal min: 15.5°C (59.9°F) max: 25.1°C (77.2°F)
San Miguel min: 19.8°C (67.6°F) max: 35.8°C (96.4°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
932 PM AST WED DEC 1 2010

.UPDATE...FEW SHOWERS PERSISTED UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED ONLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY THE TYPICAL NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH
LIMITED PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. THIS FAIRLY DRY WEATHER REGIME
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC
BY SATURDAY...THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS BY SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS.

ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET...WITH LARGE BREAKING
WAVES UP TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF
PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND FOR ST CROIX
THROUGH 10 PM AST THURSDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another weak front will arrive by late Saturday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST THU DEC 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. A WEAK FRONT NOW LOCATED BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INCREASING THE SHOWER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN
USVI...CULEBRA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS REPORTED.

SATELLITES AND RADAR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND NORTHERN USVI.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE MID
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS A MORE STABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK FRONT NOW LOCATED BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INCREASING THE SHOWER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES. THESE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER PULSE OF NE SWELLS WILL REACH OUR
LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGH AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 70 80 70 / 40 10 10 10
STT 83 70 83 68 / 20 10 10 10

[BZSTORM]

today we get cold front for dec 1st, season done for us thankful it wasn't as bad as it could have been.
Luis just found some cams for Placencia area these are North on the peninsula, best you post them as I don't know how.
http://www.aplaceinbelize.com/
see you all next season, just hope we don't get any freak winter/spring storms this coming year keep safe everyone in meantime

Posted at first post of the thread as a hyperlink,the cams from Placencia. I am glad that nothing very bad occured during the hurricane season over there. You can continue to come and post about anything that you may consider is important that may occur weatherwise in Belize on the next 6 months before the 2011 season starts.

Thanks Cycloneye - didn't know this forum was open out of hurricane season as well good to know.