Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

RESULT FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS THE GFS ADVERTISING A ROUND OF
RAIN...AND EVEN SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIXED IN AT THE END
TUESDAY...WHILST THE ECMWF IS DRY THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE
COMING WEEK. THIS SCENARIO IS A FLIP-FLOP FROM YESTERDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF ADVERTISING A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ENDING WITH A WINTRY
MIX...WHILE THE GFS WAS DRY. WITH THIS FLIP-FLOPPING...HAVE LESS THAN
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure where the Mobile NWS office is looking to see that winter precip, Arkansas? I don't see so much as a hint of winter precip down south with the 12Z GFS. Just a bit of light rain with temps in the 40s on Tuesday morning. Can't 100% rule out the chance of a stray sleet pellet that would melt as fast as it reaches the ground, but that's about it.

GFS has some light snow in southern Kansas on Tuesday:

[Ivanhater]

You must have missed the 00z and 06z GFS Wxman They were similar to the Euro a couple days ago with a snow storm for the Gulf coast..that is what the NWS Mobile/Pensacola was referring to.



Eh..the 12z run suppresses the storm toward Cuba..which the GFS keeps flipping on.

What is more important to me is the cold air looks to be in place and there is a storm. I remember the snow storm last February, which many models also suppressed the storm toward Cuba, only to trend north a couple days prior to the event. It really only snows along the Gulf coast when the models don't show it

The players are on the field...

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian has our Gulf storm with the GFS and Euro having the cold air in place..this could get very interesting...

[wxman57]

12z Canadian has our Gulf storm with the GFS and Euro having the cold air in place..this could get very interesting...

Oh, yeah, the previous runs. Thought they were looking at the 12Z and seeing winter weather somehow. I think we'll make it through the first week or two of December THIS year without a significant winter event down south. I do get a bit excited when I see the models forecasting snow, as I grew up in south Louisiana where it doesn't snow that often. So if I see something to get excited about, I'll be the first to say so.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Wxman, it is so hard to get snow down here as you know. However, if there is a sliver of hope..I will jump on it.

[Ivanhater]

I'm telling you..this setup is very interesting for the Gulf coast...GFS coming in even colder and a Gulf storm heading east in the Gulf. Just like the big Gulf coast snow last February the GFS kept inching northward with the Gulf storm as we got closer to the event.

Regardless...this setup raises a few eyebrows for those of us on the Gulf coast.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS ensemble mean looks absolutely lovely

[frigidice77]

Imo is gonna be a bust. Are the models even showing any snow?

[Ivanhater]

Imo is gonna be a bust. Are the models even showing any snow?

Somewhat. The Canadian and GFS have come in line with a stronger Gulf low. GFS ensembles have the low further north in the Gulf in line with the Canadian.

By the way, many of the deep south's memorable snows have come from "busts". Statistically, you will be right many more times betting against snow in the deep south. If you want guaranteed snow, you need to move to the north.

[frigidice77]

Whats that big blue line on the gfs 18z ensemble? I hope its what I think it is.

[wxman57]

Whats that big blue line on the gfs 18z ensemble? I hope its what I think it is.

That's the freezing line at 850mb (5000 ft up).

[frigidice77]

So temps will be below freezing in the places above the line. Well that explains why he said it was lovely. Is that snow in southern georgia?

[Jag95]

I like snow as much as anybody, and these maps are fun to look at. But these types of scenarios with the Gulf lows seem to never occur here. Either the low center is 20 miles too far south (no precip), or 20 miles too far north (all rain). It has to be exact. Those lucky enough to see anything will end up being in a 10 mile swath. It's like winning the lottery.

[Ivanhater]

I like snow as much as anybody, and these maps are fun to look at. But these types of scenarios with the Gulf lows seem to never occur here. Either the low center is 20 miles too far south (no precip), or 20 miles too far north (all rain). It has to be exact. Those lucky enough to see anything will end up being in a 10 mile swath. It's like winning the lottery.

It comes with the territory for us on the Gulf doesn't it?

Even to have a possibility of snow here is a success in my book

[Kennethb]

It is deja vu all over again. A potential early December wintry precipitation event here in the Deep South, in an area where it could snow as easily next week as it could be another 10 years before we see measurable snow again. At least here in Baton Rouge.

In order to have measurable snow three consecutives years, which I cannot recall ever, you need to have two consecutive years. And we have that; at least here in Baton Rouge. And actually we had two measurable snows in the same season (December 2009 and February 2010), something that had not occurred since 1988.

And like the past two years, I am skeptical this year. Heck I would be skeptical in January and February to see models supporting any wintry precip here.
Regardless, it will be interesting to see what occurs.

If not next week, It looks like the next three weeks keep us cold. So maybe we can get a snow pack above us, consecutive lows pushing even more cold air down, with additional disturbances coming across the south Pacific, and some additonal opportunities.

[frigidice77]

This winter gonna be colder than last years. Strong la ninas have unpredictable weather.

[vbhoutex]

This winter gonna be colder than last years. Strong la ninas have unpredictable weather.

Somewhat of a bold statement and very general. Can you back it up with some evidence or analysis that would support it?
Earlier you said the snow threat is gonna bust. Which one do you want to back up?

[Ivanhater]

Individual GFS ensemble members are out...many showing a nice gulf low. Here are some of my favorites

[frigidice77]

Well.... lets see.... uuhm... there the seems to be round after round of cold air and you dont know when a extreme event might come like last year where the jet stream stay down and create a prolonged event of cold.