Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Storm isn't even onshore yet who knows. But I'd feel a lot better if the models were all over the place amongst each other (ironically lol) vs. all of them showing a weak 'disturbance' as they are now. Doesn't look too good consensus wise.

[srainhoutx]

Patience...the pattern is shifting...

[frigidice77]

What will the new pattern look like?

[Texas2Florida]

So what's the next thing coming down the pipe?

[frigidice77]

Warm and dry weather.

[iorange55]

Warm and dry weather.

You're extremely negative, and it seems like you're just repeating what you have heard instead of showing what you say. You also seemed to gloat about it being right about no snow for next week. Which you didn't say till the models started leaning towards that way.

I mean wxman comes in here and he hates winter and is usually the one to calm us down in our hopes but he explains why and how. It just seems to me you like being the negative nancy. Which could be because you want snow bad and you're irritated it hasn't and might not happened. It's easier to have no hopes at all. I get that, but surprises always happen in the winter so the pattern long term can be for or against it, doesn't mean it won't happen.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Warm and dry weather.

You're extremely negative, and it seems like you're just repeating what you have heard instead of showing what you say. You also seemed to gloat about it being right about no snow for next week. Which you didn't say till the models started leaning towards that way.

I mean wxman comes in here and he hates winter and is usually the one to calm us down in our hopes but he explains why and how. It just seems to me you like being the negative nancy. Which could be because you want snow bad and you're irritated it hasn't and might not happened. It's easier to have no hopes at all. I get that, but surprises always happen in the winter so the pattern long term can be for or against it, doesn't mean it won't happen.

I'll add to that iorange....For one it's not going to be warm and dry, it will be quite cold and dry, but we've seen many forecast like these over the years in DFW that will turn around and provide a suprise snowstorm. So any long term weatherwatcher knows we're not dead in the water yet, even though it appears as though we are. I am interested in why someone from Georgia is so captivated by weather in the southern plains.

Btw, fwd has mentioned the possibility of another system and more cold air moving in next weekend.

[frigidice77]

Well actually im not captivated in your weather its just that no one is ever on the deep south thread sometimes.

[utweather]

Its been very dry lately here, yesterday was nice and cool. I'll hope for some sleet this year. Where's the moisture?

[vbhoutex]

Its been very dry lately here, yesterday was nice and cool. I'll hope for some sleet this year. Where's the moisture?

The moisture is MIA!!

[natlib]

I'm starting to get very concerned about the weather in West Central Texas. Its been very dry. In fact not a drop since early October. Looking ahead and listing to the experts on this board, it doesn't appear there is much hope for precip through the end of the year. Then, January and February are normally very dry even without La Nina conditions.

It appears sever drought may be returning to my neck of the woods.

[vbhoutex]

I'm starting to get very concerned about the weather in West Central Texas. Its been very dry. In fact not a drop since early October. Looking ahead and listing to the experts on this board, it doesn't appear there is much hope for precip through the end of the year. Then, January and February are normally very dry even without La Nina conditions.

It appears sever drought may be returning to my neck of the woods.

Not just your neck of the woods. It is returning to most of Texas except the Northern regions. Saw a drought report this am by a local OCM and he indicated E, SE, C, SC, and W Tx are all heading into severe drought. We are 9" below here in Houston and iirc the Huntsville area to our N is almost 20" below. Not a good scenario if a typical La Nina moisture "pattern" holds.

[natlib]

Interesting....

[srainhoutx]

Shreveport considering Winter Weather Advisories...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
930 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WILL BE MADE AS ALL THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

BIG DECISION TODAY WILL BE ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA DUE TO THE MODELS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ACROSS NORTH AND
EAST AREAS...SEE MAP ON HOMEPAGE FOR AREAS.
WILL HAVE COMPLETE PACKAGE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

[djmikey]

Shreveport considering Winter Weather Advisories...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
930 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WILL BE MADE AS ALL THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

BIG DECISION TODAY WILL BE ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA DUE TO THE MODELS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ACROSS NORTH AND
EAST AREAS...SEE MAP ON HOMEPAGE FOR AREAS.
WILL HAVE COMPLETE PACKAGE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

Wow SRAINHOUTX...That's a lot more of TX and furthur south than anything I've seen today...I thought it was more central LA northward, Arkansas and Oklahoma that would see the majority. I like your graphic better.

[Tireman4]

Not that far from me.....Humble-Huffman area....

[utweather]

Interesting....

Joe Bastardi

I'm surprised he doesn't have at least some part of every state except Florida with ">1"" and the Florida painhandle with "possible". I guess its not looking good this Christmas..

[srainhoutx]

Shreveport issues a Winter Weather Advisory...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
319 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM UNTIL 6 AM
WEDNESDAY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-112-
080530-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0008.101208T0400Z-101208T1200Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MONROE...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...ATLANTA
319 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO 1 INCH...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AS
RAIN BUT COULD MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION WHERE
SNOW IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...THUS
ENDING THE WEATHER THREAT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER...SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON TREES...GRASSY
AREAS...AND ELEVATED SURFACES INCLUDING SOME BRIDGES. SOIL TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL VERY WARM THUS ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED.

[Ntxw]

From the FW office.

We'll have to track where the heaviest precip goes.

[iorange55]

Considering I'm a desperate fool I'll be looking outside all night hoping for some flakes.