Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[vbhoutex]

Well.... lets see.... uuhm... there the seems to be round after round of cold air and you dont know when a extreme event might come like last year where the jet stream stay down and create a prolonged event of cold.

Try this one again. The Southern jet is still well to the North of where it was last year and is still predicted to be by all the models. Obviously something could change like you suggest, but it doesn't just happen, it evolves, so we would be somewhat aware of something like what you suggest happening. Again, just thoughts and wishful thinking is not what we forecast on. Can you back it up?

[Ntxw]

The duration of cold will not be what it was last year, however the source regions (NW Canada and Alaska) are much colder during La Ninas so when intrusions do come, they may pack more of a short term punch (this is not always a good thing for snow lovers because it can get too cold and dry, no precip). Perhaps that's what Frigidice77 was trying to say.

There's still a lot of uncertainties for the deep south regarding snow (if any) but what I've learned over the years is that gulf lows are driven too far south and eventually corrects to a reasonable north solution. This happened several times last winter, we'll have to wait and see how deep the trough digs as the energy tends to round about the base of it.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS hurts but the 00z Canadian is wetter at 144 hours

[frigidice77]

Well vbhoutex the forecasted temps next will be much colder than last winter. Even though we dont have the precip for the snow last year that doesnt it wont be colder. At this rate we may be colder unless we see this warm january.

[dwsqos2]

Considering that we have quite a nice Nina and quite a nice negative PDO, I am going to suppose that this winter will be warmer than 2009-2010 for the Deep South. Both those things tend to correlate with above normal heights over the South. The NAO is a wild card.

Last winter was really anomalous. I would have to check, but I recall high temperatures rarely exceeding 60 degrees in southern AL for most of DJF. As a heat lover, I found it miserable.

[vbhoutex]

Well vbhoutex the forecasted temps next will be much colder than last winter. Even though we dont have the precip for the snow last year that doesnt it wont be colder. At this rate we may be colder unless we see this warm january.

Is this just for your area or are you talking the whole South? I'm not sure if you are trying to correlate the precip and the cold, but they don't always go hand in hand and they definitely don't cause each other. The cold shots we are experiencing here in TX and where you are are relatively normal for this time of year when we talk duration. Even here in TX the cold hasn't been extreme by any stretch of the imagination. I know you guys have had colder than we have, but a few short cold shots does not a long cold winter make. Also normally during a La Nina winter you will find that what we are having is rather typical and will probably include a warmer than normal January. As far as the currently forecasted temps in your area I don't follow them closely but I know here in SE TX we are definitely warmer overall than we were last winter at this time and the cold shots are nor lasting as long either.

[frigidice77]

Do the models still have that deep south snow? lol

[Jag95]

Do the models still have that deep south snow? lol

I haven't checked the other models, but the GFS doesn't. It keeps any shower activity on the 7th and 8th (previous time frame for the wintry precip) disorganized and way to the south over the southern GOM. Accuweather's long-range calls for a wintry mix on the morning of the 13th, with showers on the 11th and 12th with night time temps falling below freezing. That'll change too. lol.

[frigidice77]

OMG its gonna be frigid next week. These temps in my location will be colder than last year temps. You guys sure it wont be colder than last years

[Snowluvr]

The national weather service in Jackson, Ms is mentioning the possibility of snow flurries Tuesday night.

[Jag95]

The national weather service in Jackson, Ms is mentioning the possibility of snow flurries Tuesday night.

New Orleans NWS has it in the forecast for coastal MS and eastern LA parishes also. Mobile NWS is holding off for now.

ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE INDICATING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE UPPER
TROF SOMETIME AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN FCST AS WE WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER
DEFINE THIS. 12/DS

[wxman57]

GFS-projected vertical profile for south MS does indicate sub-freezing temps aloft, but with very little moisture. Mid-level clouds are indicated. Questionable whether any precip could be squeezed out of these clouds.

[frigidice77]

Theres probably not going to be any snow for any of these locations. Lol

[frigidice77]

Iis gonna snow in charlotte, Nc tommorw. Weather.com has snow/rain mix forecasted tommorow night.

[Snowluvr]

I think we'll have a supriise snow event in the south within the next week or so. Just my opinion.

[Lowpressure]

18z run of the GFS and the NAM show light snow for a good portion of NC. They are actually very similar at 36hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036m.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036m.gif

[wxman57]

I always thought of North Carolina as being way up north rather than the "deep south". The Gulf Coast states are the deep south. South Carolina almost qualifies, though.

18Z NAM does indicate a trace of snow accumulations in far N-NW NC. Nothing unusual there, though.

[vbhoutex]

OMG its gonna be frigid next week. These temps in my location will be colder than last year temps. You guys sure it wont be colder than last years

The lowest temp I see for your area is 26f. Is that lower than any temps you had last year? I doubt it seriously.

[MGC]

NWS Slidell is calling for our first freeze here on the Miss Coast Tuesday morning. Tuesday night calling for light rain and a low of 31 for Wednesday morning. Usually when it snows down here it is not forecast, when it is forecast it don't snow......MGC

[frigidice77]

I agree with you Mgc. Florida mainly see snow flurries or so when not in the forecast.But last winter on February 12 2010 they were forecasting a possibility of 4-7 inches. A few areas seen an inch as the most.Conditions are also ripe for snow in deep south. The only thing preventing this is dry air or no moisture support.