Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[vbhoutex]

That one picture tells me I need to be more watchful of the weather for the next week!! I haven't been on hardly at all today or even looked at the models but that sure does peak my interest.

[Ntxw]

Still early, but anyone realize the trends lately? The 0z Nam has the low closing off as it exits the rockies before it opens again. Further west this round. There's still hope! Still not convince it will have much moisture to work it yet.

[iorange55]

Still early, but anyone realize the trends lately? The 0z Nam has the low closing off as it exits the rockies! There's still hope! Still not convince it will have much moisture to work it yet.

It's December. We're up for a few closely wrapped surprises ;]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Below is a look at the 00z NAM Composite Reflectivity output for next Tuesday...

6am Tuesday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
9am Tuesday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
12pm Tuesday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
3pm Tuesday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
6pm Tuesday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
9pm Tuesday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
12am Wednesday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

Definitely starting to look like this could become a little more exciting than originally thought a few days ago.

[Ntxw]

^ Before you know it we'll be trending blizzard in the SoPlains!

What's different in the model trends is that the low currently doesn't transfer as much energy out in the pacific to the number 2 storm up north making it somewhat more robust. Secondly, there is hints of a southern jet possibly at work with streams of energy following along the storm west of the Baja...hmm.

[iorange55]

Starting to look very interesting. This website and the southern threads especially make me feel like we're part of some underdog team who always seem to squeak out a victory once a year.

Hopefully this is our victory.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Check out the difference in the upper-level system between yesterday and today...

Yesterday's 00z NAM (valid 6am Tues.)


Today's 00z NAM (valid 6am Tues.)

[HockeyTx82]

What is going on? What do you all see? This board just woke up all of a sudden.

[srainhoutx]

Check out the difference in the upper-level system between yesterday and today...

Yesterday's 00z NAM (valid 6am Tues.)


Today's 00z NAM (valid 6am Tues.)

Amplification looks impressive at this range. Let's see what it brings tomorrow with some U/A sampling from Coastal CA.

[TwisterFanatic]

What the Pro-Met told me looks like it might be happening just as he said. The models will trend more, and more in the favor of some 'decent' winter precip. Lets see if this continues.

[Ntxw]

GFS is still the party pooper. Breaks down the shortwave pretty quick once it enters California. At least it's keeping it fairly strong longer in the Pacific.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Unlike the NAM, it appears as though the GFS is showing a less amplified upper level system than its earlier runs. Because of this, it is also now showing less precipitation and in turn warmer temperatures. I guess I shouldn't really be surprised though. It seems like these models never want to be in agreement about anything.

00z GFS snow accumulation at midnight Wednesday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

18z GFS snow accumulation at midnight Wednesday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

I guess its now time to wait and see what tomorrow's runs bring..

edit: just saw that ntxw pointed this out in the post above.

[iorange55]

I'm not going to let the GFS get me down. I've never liked it anyhow.

[Ntxw]

Seems the GFS has hacked into the Canadian and injected it with it's own DNA. Two are nearly identical.



Run after, moisture goes straight into the gulf.

[iorange55]

Seems like this won't settle itself out till Tuesday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well after getting somewhat excited about the model runs this afternoon and the 00z NAM this evening, it looks like we're right back to where we were a couple of days ago...still not knowing exactly what will happen. The shortwave path is pretty much nailed down at this point, but the amplitude of the shortwave and the moisture availability seem to still be the big question marks. Hopefully by the start of next week we will finally have this situation figured out..

[Ntxw]

Well overall the globals have a solution and are fairly similar between each other and run to run. They aren't exactly everywhere, we're just cherry picking on the runs/models/details that show the most optimism . We said by the weekend, should have a pretty good idea of what's to come, and it doesn't look like much, but question is where will the most (relatively) end up.

If there was a major winter storm by now, generally this would be the time frame in which winter storm watches are posted, so not much hope in that regards.

[iorange55]

Well overall the globals have a solution and are fairly similar between each other and run to run. They aren't exactly everywhere, we're just cherry picking on the runs/models/details that show the most optimism . We said by the weekend, should have a pretty good idea of what's to come, and it doesn't look like much, but question is where will the most (relatively) end up.

If there was a major winter storm by now, generally this would be the time frame in which winter storm watches are posted, so not much hope in that regards.

I don't think anything major will come, but I'm still latching on to the idea of a surprise happening. Like a dusting or something. Which would be enough to make me happy.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z ECMWF QPF output for the "event" (lol)...

Oklahoma City: 0.02"

Dallas/Fort Worth: 0.03"

[Ntxw]

I don't think anything major will come, but I'm still latching on to the idea of a surprise happening. Like a dusting or something. Which would be enough to make me happy.

I think the snowgods are playing with us. Probably had enough snow for the decade with that foot. Look at how we were spoiled last year, we don't usually see anything this early in the season and already we're riding the coaster!
Edit:

00z ECMWF QPF output for the "event" (lol)...

Oklahoma City: 0.02"

Dallas/Fort Worth: 0.03"

Hey! Adjust for inflation and those numbers might hit 0.10 by Tues! Ecmwf doesn't look too promising and is on par with GEM/GFS.