Tropical Wave ESE Winwards?

[Anthonyl]

I am not entirlelt sure but as per the NHC's surface analysis map it seems that we may have some showery activity entering the Caribbean by mid week.

[Gustywind]

[frigidice77]

It would be interesting if it does indeed develop. What do the conditions look like.

[Hylian Auree]

The trough and its associated convection are currently amidst warm sea surface temperatures (27–29 °C), and wind shear seems to be pretty insignificant, though I'm somewhat dubious of significant development. Its actual environment seems conducive, yeah, but it's still a pretty awkward place for TCs to be developing at this time of year; also, upper-level conditions within its encounter could very well become adverse quickly. On a side note, check out the 70–90 kt wind shear to its northwest @_@

Edit: I must add that, regardless of development, you are probably right about the shower activity. Seems the Windward Islands will be receiving another couple of rainy days soon. It's been pouring here (Curaçao) all day, and streets and houses are once again flooded — as if Tomas wasn't enough!

[abajan]

...It's been pouring here (Curaçao) all day, and streets and houses are once again flooded — as if Tomas wasn't enough!

Yeah, I've been monitoring the situation in Curaçao for several weeks. In just a single day (early last month, I think it was) you guys had more rain than you normally get in an entire year!
Welcome to S2K, BTW. Be sure to post in the Caribbean - Central America weather thread sometime.

[chrisjslucia]

I believe this is the location GFS were forecasting something for during late November - that is roughly the same point of origin as Tomas. This was revised to early December then from what I recall, they backed off this idea. Is this the possible system they had in mind? Cycloneye was keeping a close watch on the GFS forecasts, so maybe he will know.

[cycloneye]

I believe this is the location GFS were forecasting something for during late November - that is roughly the same point of origin as Tomas. This was revised to early December then from what I recall, they backed off this idea. Is this the possible system they had in mind? Cycloneye was keeping a close watch on the GFS forecasts, so maybe he will know.

GFS had plenty of moisture by the end of November going towards the first days of December and in some form,it panned out as we have seen with the high rainfall totals being reported in the Southern Caribbean caused by the ITCZ being more active than normal for this time of year,combined with surface troughs embedded within the convergence zone. The idea that GFS had of a Tropical Cyclone by the end of November,was abandoned rapidly after it showed up on November 14th on the long range as I posted that graphic on page 383 of the Caribbean thread.