Final Prediction - November 22-30

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

Only Invest 94L generated any kind of interest this past week, and I called for no development. My confidence was 65%, and in hindsight I probably should have heightened it. That said, it was in a favorable area for development in November, models were slow to disintegrate it, and 2010 has been very unpredictable as we all know. Still, I was correct in not picking development there or elsewhere, so my grade is an A for this past week.

Let’s take a look at the next ten days now, shall we? This will also be my last official weekly prediction for 2010. And yes, with only two days left of hurricane season next week, there’s little use in my opinion in making a prediction for next week so I’m spilling over to include those two.

Current situation and models

It appears we can finally take a breath and live now. There is nothing threatening right now and nothing looks imminent per models this upcoming week. The GFS was previously looking at the eastern Caribbean for some sort of development, but even that support appears to have dwindled. Overall, models do not suggest anything of interest happening this upcoming week.

Recent history

During the last ten days of November, since 1995, there have been five new tropical developments:

Nicole in 1998
Olga in 2001
Otto in 2004
Delta in 2005
Epsilon in 2005

All of these developments occurred in subtropical regions and far from any land areas. Nicole, Olga, and Epsilon all eventually became hurricanes, and Delta was very close. Only Otto stayed as a weak to middling storm, but also occurred after 2004 had transitioned to El Nino.

Coming into these last ten days, only Lenny in 1999 was still intact, and dissipating over the cooler open Atlantic waters.

So what does this all tell us?

The Caribbean is no longer a favorable area for development. Anything that happens from here on out is more than likely to stay over open waters and have some kind of subtropical-related origin. With models not even showing this, the season is likely over.

Back to looking ahead

It’s a longer-range forecast, so I must not take this too lightly. Still, with models showing virtually nothing these last ten or so days of the hurricane season, and recent history only suggesting developments in the subtropics now, I predict no more developments in the Atlantic in November 2010. Confidence is 85%.

I will still evaluate this period when it is over, and am thinking about an analysis of how I did throughout the season.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Sorry this is a few days late. The last few days or so have been pretty busy with Thanksgiving and getting ready for Christmas and all. That said, FINALLY we can evaluate the last ten days:

Models and climatology were both correct on forecasting no development in the last 10 days of November, and that is what I called for. I lowered my confidence slightly due to the longer time frame, but it came to full fruition anyway. Therefore, my grade for the final ten days of November is an A.

I will work on putting together a full look-back at the hurricane season now. Stay tuned, could be a little bit.

-Andrew92