Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[iorange55]

I've been watching that close to Christmas and some models keep going back and forth with how much precip will be there and if I remember correctly one even brought some type of disturbance about a day after the cold front comes through straight from new mexico and into central Texas.

[wxman57]

I've been watching that close to Christmas and some models keep going back and forth with how much precip will be there and if I remember correctly one even brought some type of disturbance about a day after the cold front comes through straight from new mexico and into central Texas.

It was only yesterday that the GFS got a fair handle on the Ohio Valley/New England storm system for this coming weekend. You expect the 16-day GFS to be even semi-accurate when it has a hard time forecasting major winter storm systems 4-5 days into the future?

[Ntxw]

I don't know about any snow, but the NAO and AO will remain negative so the eastern half of the country will continue to experience cold blasts up until Christmas with Texas likely getting glancing blows. Just the recipe to rattle Wxman .

Plenty of might cold air in Canada, Alaska, and Siberia to provide the fuel.

[wxman57]

I don't know about any snow, but the NAO and AO will remain negative so the eastern half of the country will continue to experience cold blasts up until Christmas with Texas likely getting glancing blows. Just the recipe to rattle Wxman .

Plenty of might cold air in Canada, Alaska, and Siberia to provide the fuel.

That's OK, I'll get my revenge in Jan-Feb when we reach record highs in Houston.

We did expect a cold December for the eastern half of the U.S. this year (and generally dry). The strong La Nina may lead to a big warm-up in Jan-Feb in the same areas, though.

[iorange55]

I've been watching that close to Christmas and some models keep going back and forth with how much precip will be there and if I remember correctly one even brought some type of disturbance about a day after the cold front comes through straight from new mexico and into central Texas.

It was only yesterday that the GFS got a fair handle on the Ohio Valley/New England storm system for this coming weekend. You expect the 16-day GFS to be even semi-accurate when it has a hard time forecasting major winter storm systems 4-5 days into the future?

I don't expect anything and I didn't say I did. I said I was looking and watching. I'm not sure if you are having a bad day but your post had a lot of assuming in it like the long range models.

[srainhoutx]

I've been watching that close to Christmas and some models keep going back and forth with how much precip will be there and if I remember correctly one even brought some type of disturbance about a day after the cold front comes through straight from new mexico and into central Texas.

It was only yesterday that the GFS got a fair handle on the Ohio Valley/New England storm system for this coming weekend. You expect the 16-day GFS to be even semi-accurate when it has a hard time forecasting major winter storm systems 4-5 days into the future?

And I'm not sure it has a handle on that storm as of yet after seeing the Euro and the UKMET today.

[wxman57]

And I'm not sure it has a handle on that storm as of yet after seeing the Euro and the UKMET today.

Yeah, I know. I only semi-consider the GFS solution beyond 7 days if it's being consistent from run-to-run and if the EC and CMC are somewhat in agreement beyond 7 days. Otherwise, it's garbage. And that's particularly true with winter patterns.

[Portastorm]

I don't know about any snow, but the NAO and AO will remain negative so the eastern half of the country will continue to experience cold blasts up until Christmas with Texas likely getting glancing blows. Just the recipe to rattle Wxman .

Plenty of might cold air in Canada, Alaska, and Siberia to provide the fuel.

That's OK, I'll get my revenge in Jan-Feb when we reach record highs in Houston.

We did expect a cold December for the eastern half of the U.S. this year (and generally dry). The strong La Nina may lead to a big warm-up in Jan-Feb in the same areas, though.

Sadly, you're probably right. We've seen some record high "winter" temps later in the season courtesy of a Nina. I do think there may be a few nice cold snaps in between those record highs though ... just enough to thwart an occasional cycling trip for Wxman57!

Meanwhile, the whole drought thing is disconcerting. At this rate, the wildfire threat will be fairly substantial in a month or two.

[wx247]

When will the weekend low pressure begin to deepen? That is a key component in this forecast, at least for the Southern Plains.

[Ntxw]

When will the weekend low pressure begin to deepen? That is a key component in this forecast, at least for the Southern Plains.

The GFS has trended away from a closed deepening low but rather a progressive trough, which means little or no backlash snows in the southern plains behind the front. A few days ago the GFS had a cutoff low deepening in the Tennessee Valley which it no longer has. The European has the deepening cutoff low well to the north in the upper midwest to great lakes. The Canadian too has a progressive trough similar to that of the GFS.

Lately the trend has also been an upper low crossing the lakes to the Ohio valley and transfering energy into a coastal low bombing off the Mid-Atlantic coast. If this is the case, it will be just cold and limited moisture in the southern plains and south.

In either case, brutally cold air is heading down with the brunt of it just east of the southern plains.

[TwisterFanatic]

Ouch, forecast low for monday morning is 8 degrees.

[Texas Snowman]

Did a little research - memorable North Texas winter weather events during a La Nina year:

http://www.stormfax.com/elnino.htm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=snowevents

These two stick out to me since I live in the Red River Valley.

March 2008 - Two snowstorms in four days, blanketed Grayson County with 17" of snow during that week.

December 25, 2000 - Massive ice storm knocked out power to nearly a quarter of a million people in N. Texas and S. Oklahoma.

[Ntxw]

Now that we are in the realm of the NAM, early indications from it are similar to the globals for next week. No cutoff low nearby with a progressive trough. The storm is in the Ohio Valley, if this is to be believed. Snow is mostly confined to the Midwest and central plains.

Hour 78


Hour 84

[orangeblood]

And I'm not sure it has a handle on that storm as of yet after seeing the Euro and the UKMET today.

Yeah, I know. I only semi-consider the GFS solution beyond 7 days if it's being consistent from run-to-run and if the EC and CMC are somewhat in agreement beyond 7 days. Otherwise, it's garbage. And that's particularly true with winter patterns.

Don't know if you can say that regarding the GFS so far this winter wxman57. It nailed the western trough in November. It also had this last weak shortwave depicted very accurately (weak shortwave moving southeast out of the rockies) from 10-12 days out, while the Euro and Canadian Models had a very strong cut-off low moving through the deep south. I think I'll side with the GFS this winter until it proves me otherwise.

[orangeblood]

Did a little research - memorable North Texas winter weather events during a La Nina year:

http://www.stormfax.com/elnino.htm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=snowevents

These two stick out to me since I live in the Red River Valley.

March 2008 - Two snowstorms in four days, blanketed Grayson County with 17" of snow during that week.

December 25, 2000 - Massive ice storm knocked out power to nearly a quarter of a million people in N. Texas and S. Oklahoma.

Nice research Texas Snowman. I would also look at those La Nina years and match them up with high volume Atlantic hurricane seasons (like the one we had this year), being 1916-17, 1949-50, 1964-65, 1995-1996, and 2005-2006. Most of those were fairly tame winters around North Texas with the exception being 1916-1917, which had a big snow storm move through in January 1917.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS = Euro. Midwest storm. Also isn't as brutal with the cold. I wonder where that one poster who used the moon to reference patterns. Very good calls last year.

[Ntxw]

From the looks of things tonight, both the ECMWF and GFS show a storm around the 17-19th time frame that could possibly be fun for the southern plains. The only reason I am mentioning given how far away that is, is that both depict cold air and possibly wintry weather. Euro looks fun. It would be nice to have something around Christmas.

[wx247]

Yeah, everything is trending toward the Euro. Dang it... oh well.

[wxman57]

Euro and Canadian have the storm center way to the north at 240hrs, up in the Midwest and Great Lakes. GFS is much farther south, keeping it down along the Gulf Coast states. This is a common GFS error, taking the energy too far south and east. Same thing it did with this weekend's Midwest/Great Lakes storm a week ago.

[Texas Snowman]

Hmmm...see on an Accuweather.com video where Joe Bastardi is talking about the possibility of a southern track storm through Oklahoma next weekend.

Sure hope so.

Would love to have some winter excitement to rev this board up again.