Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[Ntxw]

I've seen hints of storms coming and going on the model but nothing consistent yet! I think once the transition occurs back to the typical LaNina western trough, in between is our best shot with the AO negative enough to provide the cold air. I'd like to see the gulf of Alaska vortex to transition more towards the Aleutian Island for southern plains fun.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest modeling has been trending back colder with tomorrow's cold front and the days immediately following. The latest 12z GFS MOS is showing low temperatures in Oklahoma City getting down to 17F on Sunday morning and 15F on Monday morning. It also looks like both days will struggle to reach 40F for a high. If these numbers verify, then this should easily be the coldest airmass of the season so far.

Below is a look at the coldest readings the 12z GFS MOS is showing for other locations across the southern plains..

TUL (Tulsa) = 13F Monday morning
DFW (Dallas/Ft. Worth) = 25F Monday morning
IAH (Houston) = 29F Monday morning

[Portastorm]

Yep, I think I'm about ready to start the ol' "winter = cancel" thread.

[Texas Snowman]

Yep, I think I'm about ready to start the ol' "winter = cancel" thread.

BEFORE it is even OFFICIALLY winter?!?!?

OK, this season may not be remotely close to anything like last winter, but I think there will still be a little bit to encourage us winter weather freaks before the middle of March (See my earlier post in this thread about big Red River Valley snows in a La Nina winter...twice in March).

And who knows, with a little luck, maybe even just enough winter weather threats this season to make the Ebenezer's on this thread a little more "Grinch-like" ! LOL!!!

[Ntxw]

Maybe for the southern half. The northern half always gets at least a sleet/ice storm even in the strongest/warmest of La Nina winters. 2008-2009 was the worst for me and even that had a mid January ice storm with freezing rain. In fact, I can't recall a winter (my memory doesn't go that far back though) without some sort of meaningful wintry precip in DFW and OKC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Both the 00z NAM MOS and 00z GFS MOS are showing a low temperature of 16F in Oklahoma City next Monday morning. Based on this agreement as well as model consistency, it is definitely looking more and more likely that we will be in for our first teens of the season in a couple of days.

[ndale]

Can any of our pro mets tell us how long La Nina is expected to last? I am not just concerned about no snow but lack of all precipitation, I can't remember the last day it rained here in Austin.

[Portastorm]

Can any of our pro mets tell us how long La Nina is expected to last? I am not just concerned about no snow but lack of all precipitation, I can't remember the last day it rained here in Austin.

I'm not a "pro met" but I can tell you that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts La Nina will last well into the spring. Right now, the Nina is considered "strong" and water temps in the watched regions will slowly moderate and be near neutral conditions by mid summer 2011. A caveat though -- ENSO predictions are somewhat tricky and not always on target.

And for the record, the last measurable rainfall in Austin was on November 12th when we received .46 inches at Camp Mabry. So, we're now at one month of no rainfall and counting. I really do hate La Ninas!

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the 10 day time frame. Record territory for the -AO and hints of a slightly +PNA regime as well as suggestions of an MJO wave (some help from the STJ) and a Stratosphereic Warming event as well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Its a chilly afternoon in central Oklahoma behind the front. Temperatures are currently in the middle 40s with winds gusting above 30mph. Wind chills by tomorrow morning are expected to drop into the single digits! (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages ... 1292015023)

[Portastorm]

Keep an eye on the 10 day time frame. Record territory for the -AO and hints of a slightly +PNA regime as well as suggestions of an MJO wave (some help from the STJ) and a Stratosphereic Warming event as well.

You should translate for the rest of us!

But I will try ... a record negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) means significant potential to dump polar air southward into North America. A slightly positive PNA would mean a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the eastern U.S. Stratospheric warming means more potential for very cold air displaced to the earth's surface, and a MJO wave means storminess in the jetstream and possibly a southern jet stream storm? OK ... srain, how did I do?

[Texas Snowman]

Keep an eye on the 10 day time frame. Record territory for the -AO and hints of a slightly +PNA regime as well as suggestions of an MJO wave (some help from the STJ) and a Stratosphereic Warming event as well.

You should translate for the rest of us!

But I will try ... a record negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) means significant potential to dump polar air southward into North America. A slightly positive PNA would mean a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the eastern U.S. Stratospheric warming means more potential for very cold air displaced to the earth's surface, and a MJO wave means storminess in the jetstream and possibly a southern jet stream storm? OK ... srain, how did I do?

Meaning....I'm dreaming of a white Christmas. Just like the one I knew last year!

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the 10 day time frame. Record territory for the -AO and hints of a slightly +PNA regime as well as suggestions of an MJO wave (some help from the STJ) and a Stratosphereic Warming event as well.

You should translate for the rest of us!

But I will try ... a record negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) means significant potential to dump polar air southward into North America. A slightly positive PNA would mean a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the eastern U.S. Stratospheric warming means more potential for very cold air displaced to the earth's surface, and a MJO wave means storminess in the jetstream and possibly a southern jet stream storm? OK ... srain, how did I do?

Well, we did talk about all this last winter Ad nuaseam. Unusual pattern in an unusual La Nina. The fly in the ointment will be whether or not the Pacific cooperates and we see the Gulf of Alaska low displaced.

[Portastorm]

I didn't talk about it last winter ... I was too busy being bitter because it snowed more in Houston than it did in Austin!

All kidding aside, I just thought I would spell it out more for anyone reading. As you have said, one of the key things will be to get that Gulf of Alaska low displaced.

[frigidice77]

Seriously what does all that mean?

[Portastorm]

Seriously what does all that mean?

I believe I spelled it all out, frigidice77. Look at my previous posts.

If all of the aforementioned things were to happen, we would have a winter storm impacting portions of the Southern Plains and southeast U.S., including your area. But this is all highly speculative.

[Ntxw]

Still so far out, but the signs are active for the southern plains in just over a week's time. I sure hope the GFS is correct in retrograding the GOA vortex. Pesky little vermin! The cold air will be in place and the storm track should shift further south with that monster -AO.

[frigidice77]

I like the sound of that lol.

[Texas Snowman]

Cold, blustery morning up here in the Red River Valley.

Went duck hunting with my son before church this morning and we broke skim ice, had ice freeze on our Lab, and even had ice forming on neoprene waders.

Official low was 30 at North Texas Regional Airport in Denison, but I'm betting it was 3 or 4 degrees colder where we were.

Worst part was the wind chill - down in the mid to upper teens at times.

[Portastorm]

Cold, blustery morning up here in the Red River Valley.

Went duck hunting with my son before church this morning and we broke skim ice, had ice freeze on our Lab, and even had ice forming on neoprene waders.

Official low was 30 at North Texas Regional Airport in Denison, but I'm betting it was 3 or 4 degrees colder where we were.

Worst part was the wind chill - down in the mid to upper teens at times.

Snowman, that sounds frosty but a lot of fun nevertheless. Duck hunting with your son in those conditions ... lifetime memories, bud. Very good!

We're expecting lows in the upper 20s here in metro Austin tonight/tomorrow morning.