WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

[Chacor]

In the South China Sea.

We're still stuck on 14 named storms for the season, which is as of December 10 a whopping 11.7 named storms behind average. We're also now behind the slowest season on record, 1998 (16 storms). In 1998 both the 15th and 16th storms became tropical storms on December 9, which means we're now two storms behind the slowest season.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, I just made a video and mentioned this area in it, really don't think anything will develop out of it though, it is mainly a result of the cold surge this week interacting with the equatorial low.

[HurricaneBill]

This is the first season to produce only one super typhoon since 1999 (Bart).

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 115.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 116.0E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 110129Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 110129Z ASCAT
IMAGE DEPICTS A CLOSED LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTHERN BORNEO INDICATE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
SLP NEAR 1006 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE DEFINED LLCC,
SLP, AND WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

[RobWESTPACWX]

My video for the 11th Of December, I talk about 95W throughout it...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNnMXivsrSY[/youtube]

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PGTW 111930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 114.3E TO 11.0N 109.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 113.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
116.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111414Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING AND A 111413Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS STRONGER 20-KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER 10-KNOT WINDS AROUND THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. SHIP OBSERVATIONS APPROXIMATELY
100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST INDICATE PRESSURES OF 1006 TO 1007 MB. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 KNOTS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, DRY,
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC IS
EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT, MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT OR ONLY ALLOW WEAK
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO INCREASE CENTRAL CONVECTION, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121930Z.//

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well I suppose my original thoughts on this system were pre-mature, yet still think it will drift to the W with landfall in S vietnam, pretty obvious that is what should happen though.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RobWESTPACWX]

95W video...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_Af8-eGgwc[/youtube]

[Chacor]

Latest high seas warning from JMA:

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 09N 113E WEST 10 KT.

[Chacor]

JMA have upgraded from an LPA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 10N 112E WEST 10 KT.

[cycloneye]

Chacor,JTWC joins JMA.

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111921Z DEC 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 9.9N 112.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 112.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 10.5N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 11.2N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 11.7N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.2N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 111.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST OF
HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 111930Z DEC 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 111930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 10.0N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.6N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.2N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.8N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.5N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 111.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121345Z
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL BANDING. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 19W IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25
KNOTS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TD 19W IS CURRENTLY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL (700 MB) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 12/12Z 700MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE STR EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE (TO INCLUDE NOGAPS,
ECMWF, GFS, JGSM AND UKMO) IS CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING THE STR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, TD 19W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER VIETNAM BY
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

JTWC has put a final warning on this, it really got destroyed in the last 12 hours due to increased VWS from the N. Now it will barely be anything when it makes landfall.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya about DSIPTD, my video for this today though..

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMf0FlSe4Yk[/youtube]