Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

The temperatures registered this morning are the coldest since early november, take a look at them:

Belize city (Belize) 17°C (63°F)
Guatemala (Guatemala) 10.5°C (50.9°F)
Quetzaltenango (Guatemala): 3.6°C (38.5°F)
San Salvador (El Salvador) 14.6°C (58.3°F)
Las Pilas (El Salvador) 7°C (45°F)
Tegucigalpa (Honduras) 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza (Honduras) 9°C (48°F)

[cycloneye]

The temperatures registered this morning are the coldest since early november, take a look at them:

Belize city (Belize) 17°C (63°F)
Guatemala (Guatemala) 10.5°C (50.9°F)
Quetzaltenango (Guatemala): 3.6°C (38.5°F)
San Salvador (El Salvador) 14.6°C (58.3°F)
Las Pilas (El Salvador) 7°C (45°F)
Tegucigalpa (Honduras) 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza (Honduras) 9°C (48°F)

Wow,those really are very cold readings.And with a clear and beautiful sky,that helps to lower the temperatures.

[Macrocane]

Yep, we have enjoyed beautiful days since december began those clear skies help us to warm up in the noon hours but cool us down in the night and dawn hours. Some forecasts call for the same or even lower temperatures this weekend and early next week as two new cold fronts will arrive.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST WED DEC 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTROPICAL HIGH DOMINATES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THESE SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SUSTAIN AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
WILL FAVOR THE DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE
THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
WIDESPREAD FLOODING TO JUSTIFY ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. NO CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 09/04Z...BECOMING SCT
THEREAFTER. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ
UNTIL 08/23Z...DUE TO SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH JUST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUYS STILL REPORTING SEAS AT ABOVE 7 FEET ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND AT AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE A SMALL RAFT ADVISORIES IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND MARINERS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTIONS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL
LOCAL PASSAGES. EATER LIES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY
GENERATING CONFUSES SEAS ALSO ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE WW3
IS SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WENT CONSERVATIVE IN THE FORECAST WITH ONLY SEAS
BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET FOR NEXT WEEK. MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS
SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS EVENT.

[Macrocane]

I've updated the Central American cold surges thread with the observations of last week's cold front, tomorrow I will post the observations from the cold front that affected us since Monday until today.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1010 PM AST WED DEC 8 2010

.UPDATE...THE HEAVY SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED. AT THIS TIME...RADAR
OBS INDICATED SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND A FEW LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH ERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER EASTERLY PERTURBATION
UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS WILL MOVE EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THROUGH 09/10Z...BECOMING SCT-BKN
THEREAFTER. TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSING SHRA AND
ISOLD TSRA EN ROUTE BTW THE USVI AND ERN PR...AS WELL VCSH AT
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. TEMPO MVFR CONDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT
TNCM AND TKPK AT LEAST UNTIL 09/10Z...DUE TO PASSING LOW LVL CLDS
AND SHRA. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS. MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND LOW CLDS OVR ERN
INTERIOR OF PR FM 09/04-09/12Z.


&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.40 INCHES WAS SET AT SAN
JUAN LMM INTL ARPT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.65 SET
IN 2003. A TOTAL OF 83.83 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED SO FAR.
THIS STILL RANKS AS THE FOURTH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD DATING BACK
TO 1898.

[Macrocane]

Another strong cold front is on its way to Central America, it will be cold and windy from Mexico to Nicaragua

GAP WINDS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS PUSHING S IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO BE FUNNELED
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND DOWNWIND INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND 00 UTC THIS EVENING THEN
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 KT BY 03 UTC FURTHER
ACCELERATING TO STORM FORCE BY 06 UTC. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGHOUT THU DIMINISHING TO GALE FORCE BY 06 UTC
FRI AND THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY 18 UTC FRI.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 19 FT DURING THE STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS EVENT PROPAGATING SW TOWARD THE
EQUATOR BY 48 HOURS.

IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20
TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.

IN THE GULF OF FONSECA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BY 06 UTC
FRI AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
PUSHES SE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BE
FUNNELED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAIN PASSES.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Scattered showers for today in Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
358 AM AST THU DEC 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC WHILE STRONG
RIDGING DOMINATES THE CNTRL ATLC. AN INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NWD TO HISPANIOLA WHILE A WEAKER LOW-LVL TROF
APPEARS TO BE MOVING WWD FROM THE USVI TO ERN PR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SFC TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN THE USVI
AND ERN PR APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE SHRA ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE LATER TODAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING INDICATED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING/AMPLIFLYING
SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GMEX/FL PENINSULA.
NONETHELESS ANTICIPATE NMRS SHRAS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH SAT WITH ONLY SPOTTY
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS XPCD TIL THEN. PW VALUES RISE A BIT ON SUN
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A SHEARLINE AND MID-UPPER
LVL RIDGE WEAKENS.

NEXT WX FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SFC
LOW FCST TO DEVELOP OFF THE US MID ATLC COAST SUN NIGHT THAT IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SURGING NORTHERLIES AND INCREASED SHRA ACTIVITY.
WHILE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING FLOODING RAINS THE WX PATTERN LOOKS
MORE UNSETTLED OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
LIGHT/MDT RAINFALL WITH SHORTER DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN AND NOT THE
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD THAT WE EXPERIENCED FROM MID NOV INTO EARLY
DEC.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST/ISX
AND NCM/KPK THROUGH 09/14Z DUE TO SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA. AFT 09/16Z...
EXPECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THEREFORE MVFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
WITH BUOY 41053 ALREADY INDICATING 7 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. WILL
BRING SCA EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.4 INCHES WAS SET AT SJU LMM INTL
ARPT YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 0.65 SET IN 2003.
THROUGH 4AM TODAY...A TOTAL OF 83.93 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. WHILE THIS STILL RANKS AS THE
FOURTH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR THE SJU AREA WE ARE LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IF NOT MORE OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
WHICH WOULD PUT US IN SECOND PLACE FOR THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.
WITH STILL 22 DAYS LEFT IN THE CALENDAR YEAR IT IS STILL
CONCEIVABLE THAT 2010 COULD END AS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory in effect

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
829 AM AST THU DEC 9 2010

...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 9 TO 11 FEET AT 12 TO 15 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY.

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-002-092030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0019.101209T1400Z-101210T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
829 AM AST THU DEC 9 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
AST FRIDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF: 6 TO 8 FOOT SEAS IN NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
SWELLS WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET.

* TIMING: SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY AND PEAK THIS EVENING. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS: ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RIP CURRENTS AND
MODERATE TO LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED. MINOR LOCALIZED
BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Macrocane]

Good morning guys! The new high pressure and associated cold front are already producing strong winds in Central America, they have been getting stronger as the morning goes by and they may get even stronger, I will post some obserrvations later today. Here's a video I shot a few minutes ago that shows how windy it is:

http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/975/f9v.mp4

[Macrocane]

I've just updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread, this time with the observations from the cold front that affected us between December 6 and December 8.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST THU DEC 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE STRONG
RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA WHILE A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE USVI TO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AT THIS MOMENT SATELLITES AND RADAR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE USVI...THIS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
BEFORE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS AN MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECTED MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION INDUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MONA PASSAGE TONIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...LIMITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS PROG SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT WILL PERSISTS ABOVE
1.50 INCHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING
MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMSS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE WITH US DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE US MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SURGING NORTHERLIES AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORIES IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH EXPOSED COASTS
OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI UNTIL 6 PM AST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TIST AND TJSJ
THROUGH 09/23Z DUE TO PASSING SHRA. MVFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 09/22Z.
HOWEVER...AFT 10/00Z...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.


&&

.MARINE...THE BUOY 41043 IS REPORTING NEAR 9 FEET AT 11 SECONDS
AND THE BUOY 41053 IS REPORTING SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET AT BETWEEN 11
AND 15 SECONDS. ALSO WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER GENERATING A
CHOP OVER THE MODERATE SWELLS. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES.
THIS SWELL WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A LARGE NW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS ON
TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1031 PM AST THU DEC 9 2010

.UPDATE...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BRING SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED MOST OF DEEP MOISTURE NOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/EASTERLY
PERTURBATION WHICH AFFECTED THE AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. TO THE
EAST A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DESCEND TO 1.50
INCHES OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN RISE SLIGHTLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS PREVAILING EASTERLIES BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONTAL SHEAR-LINE AND THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE...BASED ON
LATEST UPPER AIR INFORMATION AND PRESENT WEATHER. INTRODUCED LARGE LONG
PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IN THE LONG TERM GRIDS WHICH WILL BE GENERATED
BY SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...LLVL FLOW IS EAST SOUTHEAST BELOW 9 KFT AND WILL
BRING BANDS OF MOISTURE AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS THROUGH 11/00Z TO
TKPK...TNCM...TIST ...TISX...TJSJ. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS MAY BE
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. ALSO EXPECT ISOLD TSRA BETWEEN
10/17Z-10/21Z IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. LLVL TROUGH OVER MONA
CHANNEL HAS MDT-HVY RAIN AND ISOLD TSRA 20-80 MILES NW OF PUERTO
RICO TO CONT THROUGH AT LEAST 10/08Z AND THEN SHIFT TO NORTH OF
AREA WIDESPREAD TOPS 30 TO 40 KFT.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BUOY 41043 CONTINUED TO
REPORT SEAS OF 9 FEET AT 15 SECONDS...WHILE THE SAN JUAN BUOY 41053
REPORTED SEAS AROUND 7 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WINDS OFFSHORE WERE
BETWEEN 14 TO 18 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 TO 23 KTS
BASED ON EARLIER SHIP REPORTS AND BUOY DATA. THEREFORE EXPECT CHOPPY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MODERATE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST SWELL ACTION
TO CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...BASED ON INFORMATION
RECEIVED FROM THE NORTHERN BUOYS...EXPECT BREAKING WAVE HEIGHT TO
CONTINUE BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 8 HOURS OR SO...
THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.A very wet week ahead if forecast pans out.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST FRI DEC 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC WHILE MID LVL
RIDGING HOLDS OVR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN/EAST OF THE LEEWARDS.
RIDGE FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC. A CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED WEATHERWISE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A POLAR FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

MID-LVL RIDGING HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA OVR THE PAST 12 HRS AS
SEEN ON ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BUT RIDGE IS TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVR THE NEXT 36 HRS AS S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS MOVES
OVR TOP OF THE RIDGE. WILL SEE MAINLY ISOLD NIGHTIME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR/USVI AND ADJACENT WATERS AND ISOLD
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

ERN CONUS TROF IS FCST TO UNDERGO SIG AMPLIFICATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A DEEP LOW PRES FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA MON NIGHT AND A POLAR FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE USVI AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE PRETTY WELL
DEFINED FOR SVRL DAYS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL
BE A JET STREAK AVAILABLE TO ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THUS
PRECIP CHANCES. BELIEVE THIS FRONT HAS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BE A
SIG RAINFALL/FLOODING PRODUCER FOR THE USVI AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 10/14Z...WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TNCM/TKPK...TISX/TIST AND TJSJ IN ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS.
SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS MAY BE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED SHRA
BETWEEN 10/17Z-10/21Z IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.


&&

.MARINE...SWELLS HAVE PEAKED BUT WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY TODAY. HAVE
LOWERED SEAS IN THE INITIAL THREE PERIODS BASED ON BUOY OBS BUT
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SCA AS PREVIOUSLY FCST.


&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 84.00 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT
THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT SO FAR THIS YEAR. WE ARE STILL MORE THAN LIKELY
TO GET OVR AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS THAT
WOULD PUT US IN SECOND PLACE. STILL OVER TWO AND HALF INCHES
NEEDED TO BREAK THE ALL TIME RECORD. WILL HAVE A SHOT AT THIS
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A CDFNT IS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

Lowest temperatures of the season registered today in Central America

The cold air remains in place in Central America and today some of the cities registered their lowest temperature so far this season, some locations in Guatemala even had below 0°C readings, the minimum temperatures this morning:

Belize city (Belize): 16°C/61°F
Guatemala city (Guatemala): 8.9°C/48°F
Quetzaltenango (Guatemala): -4°C/24.8°F
Totonicapan (Guatemala): -6°C/21.2°F
San Salvador (El Salvador): 14°C/57.2°F
Las Pilas (El Salvador): 5°C/41°F
Tegucigalpa (Honduras): 12°C/54°F
La Esperanza (Honduras): 8°C/46°F
Managua (Nicaragua): 18°C/64°F

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 PM AST FRI DEC 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE MONA
CHANNEL TO A LOW AND SERVES AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF HAITI TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS NORTH
NORTHEAST FROM A HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST BRAZILIAN COAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT EAST AS A STRONG MID LATITUDE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC MID WEEK. THIS TROUGHING WILL
USHER IN A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME
AND CAUSE MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH INCREASING WINDS FROM THE EAST...GENERATING STREAMERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE EXPECT LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS TO
AFFECT THE USVI/EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE MAINLY FOCUSED EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE....MODERATE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS BEFORE SATURDAY...BUT INCREASING WINDS
WILL GENERATE A CHOP ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 AM AST SAT DEC 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WRN
ATLC OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IS TO COLLAPSE OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AS POLAR
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN US. A CDFNT WILL MOVE PUSH THRU
PR/USVI WED AND STALL ACROSS THE LEEWARDS NEXT FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TRADES TO DOMINATE THRU MON WITH ISOLD
NIGHTIME SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR/USVI LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS WRN/NWRN PR.

A SHEARLINE WILL PRECEDE A POLAR FRONT TUE WITH CDFNT MOVING THRU
THE AREA WED MORNING. MODELS NOW SHOW THIS FRONT STALLING FURTHER
ACROSS THE LEEWARDS SOUTH OF THE USVI. THIS NOW DIMINISHES THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE USVI BUT NONETHELESS XPC SHOWERS
TO BECOME MORE NMRS WITH MDT RAINFALL AMTS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FOLLOW WED NIGHT THRU THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS TJSJ/TISX/TIST THROUGH
11/14Z. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS...BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY AFT 11/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS STILL RUNNING AROUND 7 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS BUT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL SUN-TUE UNDER LIGHT TRADES AND SMALL NE
SWELL. SEAS BUILD AGAIN NEXT WED ON NW AND NE SWELLS. SCA LIKELY WED-THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 83 72 / 10 20 20 10
STT 84 73 84 76 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

Read the important part of this afternoon's discussion at the blue paragraph.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT DEC 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBS SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPED ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND THE SLIGHTLY
SUBSIDENCE PRODUCE BY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST WINDS...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
FAVOR THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ENVELOP THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS
EXPECTING SHEAR LINE CONFLUENCE ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY...
WITH COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN A MOISTURE SURGE ON
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THE RISK OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN DROP TO BELOW-AVERAGE VALUES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 AM AST SUN DEC 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WHILE A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DETECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND MONDAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS EXPECTING SHEAR
LINE CONFLUENCE ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN A MOISTURE SURGE ON WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING THE RISK OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN DROP TO BELOW-AVERAGE VALUES ON FRIDAY IN THE
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12/16Z.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS TJBQ AND
TJMZ AFTER 12/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 83 73 / 0 10 20 20
STT 84 72 84 74 / 0 10 30 40