Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 AM AST SUN DEC 12 2010

SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF OF THE COAST
OF AGUADILLA AND OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE WINDS
WAS VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

LIGHT TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THEN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

TRANQUIL SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST SWELLS. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO RETURN
TO THE AREA BY THEN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST SUN DEC 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL LOCALLY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS DEEP LAYERED TROUGHINESS SWINGS EAST
AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT TOWARD AND THEN PROBABLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY HOLD INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHES AND BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY...MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY. ASSUMING
THIS SCENARIO HOLDS AND GIVEN EXPECTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...MUST SAY THAT BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS...
CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING A BIT SHAKY IN FINAL OUTCOME AND WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF FRONT AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH 12/21Z. LLVL WIND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST AFT 13/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
3 TO 6 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT MODERATE TO LARGE...LONG
PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. IF MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE
CORRECT...SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

[Macrocane]

Good evening. I have not been updating since yesterday because for some reason the automatic stations of the SNET have not been working, I hope they fix it as soon as possible, but for now I can tell you that today was the warmest day in more than a week but tomorrow the cold pattern returns as a stron cold front approaches, here's the latest TWD:

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE ALREADY FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MEXICAN STATION MMIT HAS
SHOWN WINDS 40 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS 50 TO 55 KT SINCE 19Z. WHILE
NO IN SITU MARINE OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE...IT IS ANALYZED
THAT THE MARINE GALE HAS COMMENCED. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW 10
M SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KT. GIVEN THE WINDS ALREADY HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WILL GO WITH STORM WARNING BEGINNING IN 12
HR...AND DROPPING BELOW THAT THRESHOLD BY 36 HR...BUT CONTINUING
WITH GALE THROUGH 48 HR.

AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OVER THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
THE GULF OF PANAMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

[cycloneye]

That is the same front that will arrive in the NE Caribbean by Wednesday.Let's see how much punch is left by the time it arrives, as it looks like a strong one.

[Macrocane]

Yeah, it looks pretty strong and it's moving fast so it seems that it won't have as much time as the previous ones to weaken before it reaches the NE Caribbean.

[Macrocane]

Quick update. Moderate to strong northerly winds are already blowing in San Salvador I would say that this is the windiest night of this 2010-2011 cold season, I will post the observations tomorrow I hope the stations in El Salvador work tomorrow.

[Macrocane]

The latest TWD uses now the word strong for the winds in Central America:

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ARE FUNNELING
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
MEXICAN STATION MMIT HAS NOW EXPERIENCED WINDS 40 TO 45 KT WITH
GUSTS 50 TO 55 KT FOR NINE HOURS. WHILE NO IN-SITU MARINE
OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE...IT IS ANALYZED THAT THE MARINE HIGH
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED AND ARE CLOSE TO STORM FORCE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE GFS PEAKS THE EVENT WITH 10 M SURFACE WINDS OF
45 KT BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z ON THE 13TH...THE UKMET 40 KT BETWEEN
06 AND 18Z...THE NAM 40 KT AT JUST 06Z...NOGAPS 35 KT AT 12Z
ONLY...AND ECMWF 35 KT BETWEEN 00Z 13TH AND 12Z 14TH. GIVEN THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED...WILL GO WITH STORM
WARNING BEGINNING IN 6 HR...AND DROPPING BELOW THAT THRESHOLD BY
24 HR...AND DROPPING BELOW GALE BY 48 HR.

AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO BY MONDAY AND THE
GULF OF PANAMA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GULF OF PANAMA EVENT HAS
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING GALE FORCE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...BUT
THIS IS NOT PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST MON DEC 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL LOCALLY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS DEEP LAYERED TROUGHINESS SWINGS EAST
AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT TOWARD AND THEN PROBABLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY HOLD INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...MUST SAY THAT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
PROJECTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING A BIT SHAKY IN FINAL OUTCOME
AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF FRONT AS WE GET
CLOSER. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN DROP TO BELOW-AVERAGE VALUES ON FRIDAY IN THE
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24
HOURS. A VCSH OR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ
AFT 13/17Z...AS A ISOLD SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL DURG THE AFTN...WITH FEW PASSING VCSH AROUND
PARTS OF THE U.S.V.I AS WELL. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BUT MAINLY FROM THE ESE LESS THAN 15 KTS...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS ALONG COASTAL AREAS DURG LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NO
SIG OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 82 73 / 10 10 20 20
STT 83 71 83 73 / 10 20 30 30

[Macrocane]

Hi! I've updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations of the strongest cold front this season that produced near record minimum temperatures as low as -5.6°C (21.9°F) in Quetzaltenango, Guatemala and 4°C (32.9°F) in Las Pilas, El Salvador. The front that is affecting us right now may produce even lower temperatures tomorrow or Wednesday morning so I will be posting updates again this week.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON DEC 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAY HOLD INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

DISCUSSION...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO WEAK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GFS SHOWS THE FRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATE TUESDAY...
WITH THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE MONA PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES BY THAT TIME. BOTH
MODELS...THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE MONA PASSAGE...NORTHERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ASSUMING THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE... ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SEAS WILL BUILD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY IN
LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS. SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SWELLS.

[Macrocane]

The SNET has issued a verification of the minimum temperatures registered since December 8 and that report says that the minimum temperature in Las Pilas reached down to 3.3°C (37.9°F) on december 11 breaking the record of the lowest temperature ever registered in that station.

[Macrocane]

Latest TWD:

GAP WINDS...
HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN MEXICO IS FUNNELING STRONG WINDS THROUGH
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ONLY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE FROM IXTEPEC
IN OAXACA MEXICO...WHICH HAS SHOWN WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT AT 1300 UTC TO 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT AT 2100
UTC. FOR THIS REASON...A STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ANOTHER
18 HOURS OR SO UNTIL TUE MORNING. SEAS PEAKED AT AROUND 18 FT.

NE WINDS TO 20 KT HAVE BEGUN TO FUNNEL THROUGH COASTAL TERRAIN
NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO AS THE WIND SURGE FROM A
COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED. THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL SEE WINDS TO 20 KT
BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

[cycloneye]

After having cooler days last week,the warmer temperatures returned and a new record was broken in San Juan.But the warm temperatures will be replaced starting on Wednesday when the Cold Front arrives.Also, the rain will be prevalent at least from Wednesday thru Thursday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 PM AST MON DEC 13 2010

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE
TO EXPECT THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PRECEDING SHEAR LINE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO TRACK EASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
SECTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE DAY
TOMORROW...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A BIG RAIN MAKER AT THIS TIME...BUT THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 14/16Z EXCEPT IN TJBQ UNTIL
14/06Z. AFT 14/14Z CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. AREAS OF MVFR WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PR INCLUDING TJBQ AND
TJMZ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS INCREASING OVER ALL OF PR AFT
14/18Z. LLVL WINDS LIGHT SE TIL 14/12Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS
SHEAR LINE CROSSES PUERTO RICO AFT 14/20Z. LLVL WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY AFT 14/22Z AND INCREASE LATER.

&&

.CLIMATE...A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ESTABLISHED AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 1:58 PM AST...THE TEMPERATURE SOARED TO 88 DEGREES AT THE
AIRPORT...WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 87 DEGREES...LAST SET ON
THIS DATE IN 1992.

[Macrocane]

The most recent TWD:

GAP WINDS...
WEAKENING HIGH PRES OVER E MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL STRONG N
WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE
ONLY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE
FROM IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO WHICH HAS SHOWN WINDS DIMINISHING
FROM 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT AT 1300 UTC TO 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT AT 0100 UTC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS UNTIL TUE MORNING. SEAS PEAKED
AT AROUND 18 FT EARLIER TODAY.

SCAT PASS SHOWS NE WINDS 20-25 KT FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
FONSECA AS THE WIND SURGE FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED. THE
GULF OF PANAMA WILL SEE WINDS TO 20 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Here comes the Cold Front.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST TUE DEC 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAY HOLD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE DETECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AS
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL REGION. THE GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE MONA PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE IN PWAT
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS...AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. DRIER AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...INCRG MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA TODAY...BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH 14/14Z. THEREAFTER...CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. AFTN SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NW AND N CTRL SECTION OF
PR...TO LATER DRIFT WESTERN TOWARDS PARTS OF SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
TEMPO MVFR CONDS AT TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
INCREASING OVER ALL OF PR AFT 14/16Z. NO FLYING HAZARDS ANTICIPATED
EN ROUTE TO OR VCTY OF USVI TAF SITES. OVERALL LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LLVL SSE WIND FLOW XPCD AS A FRONTAL SHEARLINE SINKS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AFT 14/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SEAS WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY IN
LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS. SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SWELLS.

[Macrocane]

The cold spell continues in Central America, the low temepratures plus the winds have made today a very chilly morning , the low temperatures registered this morning:

Belize city, Belize: 16°C (61°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala: 8.0°C (46.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala: 1.5°C (34.7°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador: 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador: 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras: 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras: 8°C (46°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua: 14°C (57°F)
Managua, Nicaragua: 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica: 16°C (61°F)

Some wind gusts registered today:

Guatemala city, Guatemala: 60 km/h
Tegucigalpa, Honduras: 40 km/h
Ishuatan, El Salvador: 60 km/h
San Salvador, El Salvador: 30 km/h

[vbhoutex]

The cold spell continues in Central America, the low temepratures plus the winds have made today a very chilly morning , the low temperatures registered this morning:

Belize city, Belize: 16°C (61°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala: 8.0°C (46.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala: [b]1.5°C (34.7°F) [/b]
San Salvador, El Salvador: 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador: 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras: 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras: 8°C (46°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua: 14°C (57°F)
Managua, Nicaragua: 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica: 16°C (61°F)

Some wind gusts registered today:

Guatemala city, Guatemala: 60 km/h
Tegucigalpa, Honduras: 40 km/h
Ishuatan, El Salvador: 60 km/h
San Salvador, El Salvador: 30 km/h

The bolded city had the same low we did here in Houston this morning!

[Macrocane]

Quetzaltenango is oen of the coldest if not the coldest sity in Central America a couple of days ago it had a low of -5.6°C/21.9°F it was a record low ever for that place. Stay warm up there vbhoutex

[Macrocane]

The cold temperatures have produced some problems here in El Salvador, last night 186 people that were camping in El Pital (the highest mountain in El Salvador) had to be moved to shelters in lower areas because some of them suffered respiratory problems and others suffered hyportehrmia, the temeprature registred this morning in El Pital was 4°C (39°F). Here's the latest TWD:

GAP WINDS...
THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY NEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SINCE A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0300
UTC CLIPPED THE AREA AND SHOWED SEVERAL WIND BARBS OF 30 TO 35
KT ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE PASS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14/1800 UTC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

FRESH NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF FONSECA THROUGH WED
MORNING WHILE STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING
THU. THE ASCAT PASS NEAR 0300 UTC CONFIRMED 20 KT WINDS NEAR THE
GULF OF FONSECA...BUT THERE ARE NO NEW OBSERVATIONS DOWNWIND OF
PAPAGAYO OR FONSECA SINCE THAT TIME.

THE SAME ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED NE WINDS OF 20 KT FUNNELING
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVED FURTHER SOUTH. MORE RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP ZCDG4 AT 0700 AND 0800 SHOWED WINDS
CLOSER TO 30 KT NEAR THE PACIFIC APPROACH TO THE PANAMA CANAL
AND SHIP ZCDN9 NEAR 07N81W REPORTED 22 KT WINDS AT 1300 UTC...SO
THE WIND FIELD HAS STRENGTHENED AND EXPANDED NEAR THE GULF OF
PANAMA SINCE THE ASCAT PASS AROUND 0300 UTC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE HERE THROUGH WED MORNING AND
THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY THU MORNING WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

[cycloneye]

The front is almost here.Tommorow will be a rather wet day with cooler temperatures.The weekend looks like it will be with fabulous weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST TUE DEC 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PER NCEP
COORDINATION AND MODEL PROJECTIONS...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BE A
SLOW MOVER AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS AVAILABLE...TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...PROBABLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NORTH AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOST AT RISK FOR AT
LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME MINOR FLOODING. HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO SHORT TERM GRIDS
TO TRY TO SHOW THIS THINKING. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
WEAK ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON THE LOCAL
SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY FAIR AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
MOST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
OVER TJBQ. LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE NUMEROUS MVFR CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...PEAKING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF
SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE AT 6 PM AST THIS EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONS SPREADING TO MANY OTHER SECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 81 73 80 / 40 70 50 50
STT 71 83 72 83 / 20 20 20 40