Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

What until y'all see the 12z GFS run ... such a tease! (especially the period right after Christmas)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fpc.shtml

Finally biting that pattern change, are ya now Portastorm?

I'm the guy on the desert floor with an empty canteen ... I think I see something out there ... something promising ... but then again, it could be another mirage!

[Dave]

I think I know where your winter weather for Texas is Steve & all....my county is to the SE of Greensburg IN on this graphic...and yes...that's a winter storm warning in place for me...again. 3 to 5" of snow with 0.25" of ice and ice may be adjusted up to 0.50".

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/

You know...all you Texans can have this weather tonight, we won't mind at all up here.

[srainhoutx]

Dave, we would gladly take the moisture! We are 10 inches behind in SE TX and getting worse by the day. Stay warm up there, buddy!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I'm dreaming of a brown Christmas......

[Ntxw]

Finally biting that pattern change, are ya now Portastorm?

Have to give to ya srainhoutx! You've been beating that drum on the pattern change and the GFS has been on your track (relatively).

Dear Santa, give me a good Pacific for Christmas and no more whining here ! That phantom storm looks nice since it's all we have to go by for now...

[somethingfunny]

[Ntxw]

^ 18z too is laughing. We should make a GOA low hate thread.

[srainhoutx]

Another rollercoaster day ahead regarding temps as the front is through a Nacogdoches, Georgetown, San Antonio line heading S at this hour...the Panhandle is under WWA for 2-4 inches of snow...

[WacoWx]

I CANT WAIT for a pattern shift to occur. I had so much fun on this board last year. I now know what I want for Christmas!!!

[Ntxw]

I CANT WAIT for a pattern shift to occur. I had so much fun on this board last year. I now know what I want for Christmas!!!

It doesn't look good. I hope it changes, but things look to continue the way it is. Lots of northwest flow aloft, roller coaster between mild and chilly, nothing out of the ordinary. The drought isn't going to get better.

[Portastorm]

The PNA took our winter away!

[Ntxw]

Virtually all of Texas is now in a drought or close to it even in areas where Hermine and tropical systems dumped on. Southeast Texas appears to be taking the brunt of it. Unless something changes, it's likely to effect some New Year's fireworks celebrations. It's to that point where snow isn't even that important, taking rain is much needed.

[WacoWx]

Well wasnt last year a la nina as well? I know we have a different storm track this winter, but I thought that these types of winters were characterized by above avg temps and the susceptibility to extreme, though brief, arctic surges later in the winter? I'm trying to channel everything I learned from everyone here last season, but if its more than 24 hrs, I can hardly remember...wait what was I saying? lol

[Portastorm]

Well wasnt last year a la nina as well? I know we have a different storm track this winter, but I thought that these types of winters were characterized by above avg temps and the susceptibility to extreme, though brief, arctic surges later in the winter? I'm trying to channel everything I learned from everyone here last season, but if its more than 24 hrs, I can hardly remember...wait what was I saying? lol

WacoWx, last winter we had El Nino conditions ... just the opposite of La Nina.

[southerngale]

I knew it was dry here, but didn't realize it was that bad. Geesh. Feast or famine around here.

[vbhoutex]

Well wasnt last year a la nina as well? I know we have a different storm track this winter, but I thought that these types of winters were characterized by above avg temps and the susceptibility to extreme, though brief, arctic surges later in the winter? I'm trying to channel everything I learned from everyone here last season, but if its more than 24 hrs, I can hardly remember...wait what was I saying? lol

You can remember back 24 hrs?? I'm impressed!! If it is more than... ugh, what are we talking about??

Looks like another cool few days before another warm up here in SE TX. Wondering if we're going to get as cold as currently progged though. Cloud cover seems to be keeping the cool down to a very slow pace. We'll see. We sure could use the rain, if there is any. Meanwhile our friends up in the Northern burbs of Houston along the Red River may be flirting with winter precip. Is there any justice with the weather?

[wxman57]

Here's a graphic I made comparing last winter with the current El Nino/La Nina setup. Exact opposite of last year. El Nino winters across the deep south are typically cold, wet and stormy. That's just what we experienced last winter. La Nina winters are typically mild and dry, and that's what I expect the rest of this winter down south. I did expect that December would be a little cooler than normal, as often happens with a La Nina winter. But I do expect a pattern change come January to milder temps down here. Maybe not much rain, though.

[srainhoutx]

Here is what the CPC is suggesting for January...The AO is the wild card in the mix...

Code: Select all

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EST THURSDAY DEC 16 2010  30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JANUARY 2011  LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A SIMILAR INTENSITY TO THAT OBSERVED WHEN THE UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED IN LATE NOVEMBER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN AS OF EARLY DECEMBER ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 DEG C BELOW NORMAL FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO ABOUT 160 E LONGITUDE. BELOW NORMAL SSTS EXTEND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N AND 20S LATITUDE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PACIFIC EAST OF AROUND 140W. FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH, ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE EVIDENT IN THE FOUR NINO SST INDICES, WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN -1.3 C AND -1.7 C. SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL TO A DEPTH OF ABOUT 200 METERS ALONG THE EQUATOR EAST OF AROUND 160W. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A SHALLOWER-THAN-AVERAGE THERMOCLINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO CLEARLY REFLECT MATURE LA NINA CONDITIONS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA, AND SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ENHANCED, AS ARE WESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC.  ALL NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL ENSO FORECAST MODELS MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIALLY NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES AT LEAST INTO LATE BOREAL WINTER, WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR INTO THE SPRING THIS COLD EPISODE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE RECENT MJO ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AND ITS STRENGTH DURING LATE DECEMBER AND JANUARY IS UNCERTAIN AT THE CURRENT TIME, GIVEN STRONG BACKGROUND LA NINA CONDITIONS. THE SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN -1.5 AND -2 C IN THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON, SUGGESTING BORDERLINE MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS FOR JANUARY 2011. BY SPRING (MAR-MAY) 2011, THE AVERAGE OF THE STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND THE AVERAGE OF THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS, SUPPORT NINO 3.4 INDICES AROUND -1.0 C, WITH THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST BEING ALMOST A HALF-DEGREE C WARMER THAN THE OTHER TWO, SUGGESTING BORDERLINE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, THE DEEP SNOW COVER CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST IS LIKELY TO PERSIST, IF NOT INCREASE. FINALLY, THERE IS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) TO CONSIDER, WHICH UNFORTUNATELY CANNOT BE RELIABLY PREDICTED MORE THAN ABOUT 2 WEEKS IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SINCE 1950, HISTORICAL RECORDS SHOW A TENDENCY FOR A NEGATIVELY PHASED AO IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING JANUARY.  THE JANUARY 2011 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE THEREFORE BASED ON THE TRADITIONAL SUITE OF STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TOOLS, LA NINA COMPOSITES, AND DEEP SNOW COVER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH THE AO CANNOT BE USED AS A PRIMARY PREDICTOR FOR THIS MONTHLY OUTLOOK BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BEYOND 2 WEEKS, IT DOES ADD SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY TO THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.  THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2011 CALLS FOR ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST, ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST, AND THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA. THESE ANTICIPATED AREAS OF COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY LA NINA COMPOSITES AND THE CCA (ALASKA), DEEP SNOW COVER AND CCA (UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION), AND ABNORMALLY COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (WEST COAST). WHEN THE UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST IS ISSUED AT THE END OF DECEMBER, THE STATUS OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL BE REASSESSED. ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. THIS IS BASED ON THE CFS DYNAMICAL MODEL, THE CAS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE SMLR AND OCN TOOLS.  THE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2011 CALLS FOR ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, AS WELL AS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN IS WELL SUPPORTED BY LA NINA COMPOSITES, THE CFS, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE, THE SMLR AND CCA STATISTICAL TOOLS. THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, THE EAST GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST, AS WELL AS FOR A NARROW BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO NEAR YAKUTAT. THESE DRIER SIGNALS ARE BASED ON LA NINA COMPOSITES, THE CFS MODEL, AND THE CCA TOOL.   FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA   NOTES: AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED AS EC (EQUAL CHANCES).   AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JAN WILL BE ISSUED ON FRI DECEMBER 31 2010   THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus07.html

[wxman57]

Long discussion. My favorite part:
ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS

[srainhoutx]

Long discussion. My favorite part:
ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS

What caught my eye...

THESE DRIER SIGNALS ARE BASED ON LA NINA COMPOSITES, THE CFS MODEL,