Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wxman57]

Long discussion. My favorite part:
ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS

What caught my eye...

THESE DRIER SIGNALS ARE BASED ON LA NINA COMPOSITES, THE CFS MODEL,

CFS doesn't have a great track record, I believe. Maybe, one day, we'll see rain again in southeast TX?

[srainhoutx]

Long discussion. My favorite part:
ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS

What caught my eye...

THESE DRIER SIGNALS ARE BASED ON LA NINA COMPOSITES, THE CFS MODEL,

CFS doesn't have a great track record, I believe. Maybe, one day, we'll see rain again in southeast TX?

You caught my drift.

[wxman57]

Here's the Euro 2m temp forecast for Jan-March. Quite above normal across the south.

[srainhoutx]

Here's the Euro 2m temp forecast for Jan-March. Quite above normal across the south.

Issued November 15? When is the next Euro 3 month update?

[Ivanhater]

Also here was the Euro forecast including the December time frame....which I would say was off with the record cold for the Southeast

Even though January and February are not here yet, with the extreme cold the east has seen, you would think it would be factored in

[Ntxw]

Also here was the Euro forecast including the December time frame....which I would say was off with the record cold for the Southeast

Even though January and February are not here yet, with the extreme cold the east has seen, you would think it would be factored in

Actually despite of the GFS, the EC did predict a somewhat cooler scenario from a stripe in the northern plains down to the southeast for December, of course not to the levels seen. As long as the NAO remains negative and AO is too (they were the wild cards, and both aren't expected to be so past January which would cause the northern Mexico ridge to be displaced eastward) then the southeast will continue to have chances at cooler weather.

For those of us in snow drought, take a look at yesterday/today's snow map for the Amarillo area. NW of the city got over 8 inches!



Joe B today has something similar to what Wxman posted. Pretty much tells Texas to say goodbye to winter and the southeast soon to follow with the flip. 2011-2012 sha'll we?

[frigidice77]

Also here was the Euro forecast including the December time frame....which I would say was off with the record cold for the Southeast

Even though January and February are not here yet, with the extreme cold the east has seen, you would think it would be factored in

Actually despite of the GFS, the EC did predict a somewhat cooler scenario from a stripe in the northern plains down to the southeast for December, of course not to the levels seen. As long as the NAO remains negative and AO is too (they were the wild cards, and both aren't expected to be so past January which would cause the northern Mexico ridge to be displaced eastward) then the southeast will continue to have chances at cooler weather.

For those of us in snow drought, take a look at yesterday/today's snow map for the Amarillo area. NW of the city got over 8 inches!

http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/7677/40143005.gif

Joe B today has something similar to what Wxman posted. Pretty much tells Texas to say goodbye to winter and the southeast soon to follow with the flip. 2011-2012 sha'll we?

Joe B knows everything. The only thing he gets wrong sometimes is hurricane season forecast. Thats only because thats unpredictable.

[Ivanhater]

Joe B knows everything. The only thing he gets wrong sometimes is hurricane season forecast. Thats only because thats unpredictable.

Frigidice, you have been making a lot of unfounded statements of late. Weather in general is unpredictable, not just hurricane forecasts. I would strongly suggest that you think BEFORE you post.

[Ptarmigan]

Virtually all of Texas is now in a drought or close to it even in areas where Hermine and tropical systems dumped on. Southeast Texas appears to be taking the brunt of it. Unless something changes, it's likely to effect some New Year's fireworks celebrations. It's to that point where snow isn't even that important, taking rain is much needed.

The Cockroach La Nina is depriving us of rain we need.

[Ptarmigan]

CFS doesn't have a great track record, I believe. Maybe, one day, we'll see rain again in southeast TX?

As long as that Cockroach La Nina is around. I want rain.

[wxman57]

Here's the Euro 2m temp forecast for Jan-March. Quite above normal across the south.

Issued November 15? When is the next Euro 3 month update?

Should be right around today. Comes out once a month around the 15-20th. I notice the 12Z Euro is quite different from the 12Z GFS as far as the cold front across Texas on the 24th. EC has no front on the 24th or 25th, just warming southerly wind and a southerly low-level jet developing on the 27th ahead of a southern Rockies storm system. That could put our temps into the upper 70s right after Christmas. Of course, if the GFS verifies then the temps would be about 20 deg colder.

[wxman57]

Here's the Euro 2m temp forecast for Jan-March. Quite above normal across the south.

Issued November 15? When is the next Euro 3 month update?

Here's the updated forecast issued Dec. 15th (still warm down south):

[srainhoutx]

Here's the Euro 2m temp forecast for Jan-March. Quite above normal across the south.

Issued November 15? When is the next Euro 3 month update?

Here's the updated forecast issued Dec. 15th (still warm down south):

Wow. Look at the MDR! No wonder we will likely see another active tropical season.

[srainhoutx]

The big question this morning in light of the over night guidance appears to be is the Euro correct with a close Upper Low tracking across TX for Christmas Eve?. If it is correct, rain chances would increase across the Lone Star State with the nice return flow that is well established in our area. Also, the cold front does appear to be a rather strong one and the development of an East Coast Winter Storm looks to keep those cool temps in place longer for Christmas Day weekend. Fingers crossed as the pattern suggests some rain chances during the pre New Years Eve time frame as well.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
902 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 25 2010 - 12Z TUE DEC 28 2010


...CONTINUED WET ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD...
...POTENTIAL EAST COAST WINTER STORM SAT-MON...

THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION INDEX REMAINS NEGATIVE THIS MORNING
WITH A LARGE POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY EXTENDING FROM
GREENLAND WESTWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHICH IS BLOCKING THE
UPSTREAM FLOW...MUCH OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE FROM AN
INTENSE POLAR JET STREAM TRAVERSING THE BASE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER-SCALE ASPECTS IS QUITE GOOD TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT THE CASE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WHERE THE FLOW BEGINS TO SPLIT...WITH THE 00-06Z GFS/00Z
CANADIAN FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET IN
ALLOWING THE FLOW TO PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
BY DAYS 4/5. SEVERAL ASPECTS...INCLUDING RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWING AN INTENSE POLAR JET TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH...HIGHER
SPATIAL RESOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...AND MORE SOPHISTICATED
INITIALIZATION OF THE ECMWF...FAVOR AN ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION VERSUS
THE 00-06Z GFS...IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT EVEN THE ECMWF
CAN NOT ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN INITIAL CONDITIONS...FEEL IT IS
MOST PRUDENT TO ADD INCREASING WEIGHT FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THUS...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS
WILL BEGIN WITH A 90/10 ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND
RESPECTIVELY DAY 3...WHILE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TOWARD A 40/60
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND RESPECTIVELY BY DAY 7.

REGARDING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SIERRAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG POLAR JET STREAM EMBEDDED WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. DAYS 4/5 AND DAYS 6/7 QPF ACROSS
THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES POSSIBLY
HIGHER...WITH THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND ITS MOST RECENT
ENSEMBLE MEAN USED AS A 1ST GUESS. MEANWHILE...THE EVOLVING TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD FAVOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AREAS FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RETURNING THE ENTIRE GULF COAST
REGION AND MUCH OF FLORIDA BY DAYS 6/7. FINALLY...AN ECMWF-LIKE
SOLUTION FAVORS A WINTER STORM BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY DAY 4 BEFORE ACCELERATING UP THE EAST COAST
DAYS 5/6. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE DEFINITIVE WITH THE PRECISE
DETAILS INCLUDING TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL SPREAD CONSIDERING
THE SPLIT-FLOW UPSTREAM BECOMES QUITE LARGE. WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
IS MOST PREFERRED...MANY OF ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE BOTH
FASTER AND SLOWER WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH HAS HUGE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. THUS...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES AND SPREAD...THE UPDATED TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST
WAS MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

JAMES

[natlib]

I would normally be wishing for snow this time of year, but at this point I'll take rain, sleet, hail....anything wet.

[srainhoutx]

Merry Christmas....

[Portastorm]

Thank you, Santa! Austin will gladly take a half inch of rain.

Incidentally, the 6z NAM is much more bullish on precip for Texas than its 0z run. Interesting.

[jasons2k]

Wow - the HPC track would put me right in the bullseye for some decent rains. We shall see...

[Ntxw]

If the 12z NAM is correct, a core from west-central Texas, to Austin, to Houston would be bullseye! Very similar to the HPC low tracks.

[srainhoutx]

The RGEM agrees with the trek across TX as well. On to the GFS which has done a decent job depicting a storm in the Christmas Eve time frame since around the 9th. Not too shabby for such a long range out for that model regardless of what some folks may think.