Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.It's a cool and damp day here with a moderate to sometimes strong NE breeze.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST THU DEC 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE STRONG MID LATITUDE
TROUGHS PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CROSSING NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LATER IN THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS RECENTLY CROSSED THROUGH SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT CROIX AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BANDS OF WEAK MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH OUT
OF THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A SECOND FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A THIRD WETTER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO FROM HATILLO AND UTUADO EAST. FALLING
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT HAS CROSSED THROUGH SAINT THOMAS
AND SAINT CROIX. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING AND
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MODELS DO
BRING SOME WEAK AND SHALLOW MOISTURE BACK LATER TONIGHT THAT
SHOULD PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS OF A MUCH LIGHTER NATURE ON THE NORTH
COAST. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH ONE EXCEPTION. AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF PUERTO
RICO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO EXPECT
THAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ENTER AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE 10-
DAY PERIOD THAT WILL BRING MUCH BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BUT AT PRESENT
IS REGARDED WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE REMNANTS AN OLD COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHRAS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TJSJ...AND TJMZ
THROUGH AT LEAST 16/15Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE USVI
THROUGH ABOUT 16/20Z. LLVL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY 10 KT TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTY WINDS 20 KT NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUBSIDING THROUGH TUESDAY
IN THE ATLANTIC...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND
TOMORROW BEFORE FOLLOWING THE SAME TREND AS THE ATLANTIC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 72 81 73 / 70 40 40 20
STT 83 72 84 75 / 50 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

All time rainfall Record in San Juan on the virge of being broken

Macrocane,almost there as 3.09 inches fell yesterday to increase the 2010 total rainfall to 87.30 inches. We only need a light to moderate shower to fall at the San Juan NWS station to reach 87.55 inches.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju//?n=rainfall2010

[Macrocane]

I guess we can say now that 2010 will be the wettest year in San Juan as the forecast calls for more rains in the next couple of weeks.

[Macrocane]

VERY LOW TEMPERATURES PERSIST IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA

Even though we're not under the influence of a high pressure or cold front the mass of cold air remains in place over the region and produced again this morning near record low temperatures in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.

Los Naranjos, El Salvador: 2.2°C (36°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador: 4.4°C (39.9°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador: 12.4°C (54.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador: 14.2 °C (57.6°F), this is usually the hottest city in El Salvador
Belize city, Belize: 17°C (63°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala: 8.3°C (46.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala: -5°C (23°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras: 8°C (46°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras: 3°C (37°F)
Managua, Nicaragua: 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica: 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Irazu, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST THU DEC 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND
S OF THE USVI OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. MID-LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE WEEKEND. NEXT FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA ON TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN CVRG AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ON NE WINDS AS EVIDENCED BY 66F DEWPOINT
AT SJU. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TOMORROW IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR A WHILE
AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ON
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN EROSION OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE. SHOULD BE PRETTY NICE SAT-SUN WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THINGS TURN WETTER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FCST TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US SUN WITH A LOW PRES FCST TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD. ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL ENTER THE NW
LOCAL ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT AND SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES PR TUE.
SHORTWAVE VORTICES ROTATING ALONG SFC BDRY WILL TRIGGERS SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH PW AIR FCST WITH
VALUES OVER 2.0 INCHES ANTICIPATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH
FLOODING ESPECIALLY ALG THE NORTH COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS TO MVFR LIKELY AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR SAT AND SUN. NEXT FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING PREDOMINANT MVFR EVEN POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS MON
WITH RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST THRU WED.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 7-9 FT IN NW AND NE SWELLS TONIGHT-FRI. SEAS
IMPROVE SUN AS SWELLS SUBSIDE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. WILL WAIT FOR
LATEST BUOY OBS TO SEE IF IT IS TO CANCEL HIGH SURF.


&&

.CLIMATE...2010 RAINFALL TOTAL STANDS AT 87.31 INCHES THROUGH 2PM
TODAY. ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO A JUST A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
MONDAY AND IT IS NOW PRETTY MUCH DEFINITE THAT WILL BREAK THE
RECORD SOMETIME BETWEEN NEXT MON AND WED AS A CDFNT INTERCEPTS A
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE MAY ABLE TO
ADD ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN BEFORE CHRISTMAS EVE. PLEASE REFER TO
WEBPAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON RECORD.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST FRI DEC 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. MID LATITUDE
TROUGHS PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A BAND OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SLOWLY
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX...AND
MAY RETURN OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ONTO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ONLY GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT ONLY IN A FEW AREAS...NAMELY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
FROM CAMUY TO VEGA BAJA...AND EVEN SO...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH HAS FALLEN IN THESE AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME DRYER AIR HAS MOVED INTO MOST OF THE AREA AND
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM YESTERDAY. ANOTHER BAND
OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST IN THE GFS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CARRY MUCH RAIN WITH IT. AGAIN
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO PUERTO RICO ON EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING OF SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY
MOISTURE DOES NOT INCREASE UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT MOVES SO SLOWLY ONCE IT ARRIVES
THAT IT DOES NOT EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE AREA UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
AND LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THEN. LATE
IN THE MODEL RUN...NEXT WEEKEND...THE FRONT RETURNS AND WILL
SPREAD MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA IN A TYPICAL WINTER-TIME
PATTERN...BUT TIMING AND INTENSITY DEPICTED CANNOT BE RELIED ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 17/14Z...HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TIST IN PASSING SHWRS. AFT 17/16Z...MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR THROUGH
ABOUT 17/20Z. LLVL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR HEAVIER SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELL SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE
NEXT 3 DAYS AND WINDS KEEP SEAS ROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
BETTER IN THE CARIBBEAN AND PROTECTED PORTIONS OF THE PASSAGES.
BUT MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION EVEN IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 71 / 30 30 10 20
STT 84 73 84 74 / 20 10 10 20

[Macrocane]

Hi! The temperatures this morning were still pretty low in Central America but a little higher than the previous 2 days, I will post them later today, but for now I want you to know that I've updated the Central America Cold Surges Thread with the observations of the impressive cold surge experienced this week.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST FRI DEC 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FINALLY...RAIN DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...AS
A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN TOTAL CONTROL ON OUR WEATHER...AND THIS
WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY
MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE BETTER CAHNCES WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIOS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE REGIONAL WATERS AS SEAS OF 8 FEET AND WIND OF 20 KTS PREVAIL
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 70 81 / 10 10 20 20
STT 71 84 73 83 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT DEC 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. MID LATITUDE
TROUGHS PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATTER PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
PASSAGE OF THE TAIL OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH PUERTO RICO
IS DISSIPATING. RETURN MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWEST PAST CUBA WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A THIRD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD...JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS...AND BRING UP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS VERY LOW AND HAS DIPPED BELOW
ONE INCH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
AROUND SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN BUT AMOUNTS REPORTED HAVE BEEN
LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO
RETURN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. MOISTURE FROM THE
MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING NORTHWEST PAST CUBA AT
THE MOMENT BUT WILL RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO THE LOCAL
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO WHEN THE GFS BRINGS IN THE BEST DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WINDS HOWEVER WILL SHIFT FROM BEING SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHERLY ON MONDAY AND BY THE TIME THE BEST MOISTURE ARRIVES...FLOW
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND FAVOR THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO
MOST. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO REACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
BEFORE TUESDAY AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THERE. AT THIS TIME
FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE COULD
LINGER IN THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND CAUSE A FEW OF THE SMALLER
AND FLASHIER RIVERS TO REACH BANK FULL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST. AFTER A DRY SPELL ON THURSDAY ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS COINCIDENTALLY WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE NORTH COASTAL REGIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH TOO FAR OUT TO MERIT ANY CONFIDENCE...THE GFS SHOWS THIS
BAND BEING BROUGHT BACK BY SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MAY FINALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE SOUTH COAST THE WEEKEND OF
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWERS.
VCSH IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH COAST TAFS SITES THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. AFT 18/16Z...MTN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF PR THROUGH ABOUT 18/21Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10
KNOTS FROM 050 DEGREES THROUGH 19/00Z...BEFORE VEERING TO 100
DEGREES BY 19/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY AND MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE LESS THAN 7 FOOT SEAS BY THE END OF SUNDAY. LONG PERIOD
SWELLS FROM PASSING LOWS TO THE NORTH RETURN AFTER WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TEN-DAY PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 83 71 / 10 20 20 30
STT 83 72 84 74 / 10 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

Hope that all my friends are in my shape. Just a wink to Panana ... thanks to Ruben Blades who was in concert yesterday night in Guadeloupe! Gracias por todo Ruben, que concertio en Guadalupe! Sabor, amor y tatento por ese maraviloso cantor y sonero magico!

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST SAT DEC 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES DOMINATING THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST TJSJ 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF ONLY 1.03 INCHES. VERY STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WEATHER LOCALLY WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
LOCAL REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS BETTER TUESDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Here comes the next Cold Front towards the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST SUN DEC 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HOLDING THE
SUB TROPICAL JET JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AS LONG WAVE TROUGHS AT
MID LATITUDES TRAVERSE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY AND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST OVER
WATERS OFF SHORE OF THE EASTERN UNTIED STATES AND DEVELOPS INTO A
DEEP AND MASSIVE LOW. THE TRAILING FRONT OF THIS LOW WILL PASS
THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH CONVERGENCE DRIVEN SHOWERS FROM THE TRAILING SHEAR
LINE THAT WILL LAST UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TOUCHES THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BETTER MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THE SUNDAY FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
LAST NIGHT HAVE SHIFTED DIRECTION...AS EXPECTED...AND ARE NOW
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST...AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
SEEN ENTERING SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED TODAY BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE STEADILY
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GFS AND NAM
DIFFER IN THE EXACT MECHANISM PRODUCING THE SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NAM GIVING MORE EMPHASIS TO A TROUGH MOVING
WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH IS FAVORED BY ANOTHER BAND OF CONVERGENCE
TRAVELING SOUTH OUT OF THE ATLANTIC MEETING OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS FOCUSES MORE ON THE ACTUAL LIFTING ALONG
THE FRONT ITSELF WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PASSES THE LOCAL
AREA. EITHER WAY EXPECT GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD
COASTS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE EXPECT A MOSTLY
GRAY AND WET 48 HOURS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN A BREAK ON THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE BEST
MOISTURE SHOULD NOT ARRIVE...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE 26TH WHEN AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS WITH NEW MOISTURE. THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD
THEN SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWERS. VCSH IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE VI TAFS SITES...TJSJ AND TNCM THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OF PR DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTH AFT
19/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY UNTIL
TUESDAY. THE WAVE WATCH THEN BRINGS 10 TO 12 FOOT SWELL FROM
NEARLY DUE NORTH WITH A PERIOD OF 12 TO 13 SECONDS THAT PEAKS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT ARISE
THEN WILL REMAIN POSTED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 82 72 / 30 20 50 50
STT 83 72 83 74 / 20 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Getting more and more closer to the all time rainfall record in San Juan as .05 inches fell yesterday and now only .19 inches is what is left to reach the record of 87.55 inches.

Code: Select all

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN, PR
1236 AM AST SUN DEC 19 2010


...................................

...THE SAN JUAN/P.R. CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 18 2010...



WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.05          0.30 1959   0.14  -0.09      T
  MONTH TO DATE    5.32                      2.93   2.39     1.66
  SINCE DEC 1      5.32                      2.93   2.39     1.66
  SINCE JAN 1     87.36                     49.12  38.24    64.69



[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
214 PM AST SUN DEC 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A PREFRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A CDFNT TUE. SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE AREA MID WEEK AND MAINTAIN A COOL DRY NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RETURN FLOW ALREADY UNDERWAY AS SEEN ON A RECENT
1719Z SJU ACARS SOUNDING WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10
KFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS
STEERING FLOW VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND ADVECTS RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ERUPT TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PRETTY STRONG
SFC CONVERGENCE ALG PREFRONTAL TROF TOMORROW AND THIS SUPPORTS
RAISING POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY. CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PR DUE ABNORMALLY HIGH PW AIR MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STEERING FLOW OF JUST UNDER 10 KTS. PLAYED WITH
THE IDEA OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH CNTRL...NORTHEAST
AND ERN THIRD OF PR AND ALL OF THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST INCLUDING
THE USVI. BELIEVE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP POTENTIAL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW NIGHT SO THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AND STABLE
AIR WORKS IN ON NORTHEAST WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THRU 15Z MON...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NW AROUND
21Z AND THEN MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 03Z TUE.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THRU TUE THEN LARGE NORTH SWELLS
WILL BUILD BEHIND A FRONT WED WITH SEAS BUILDING QUICKLY 10-12 FT.
SCA AND HIGH SURF ARE PRETTY MUCH GIVEN.


&&

.CLIMATE...WITH ONLY 0.19 INCHES OF RAIN NEEDED TO BREAK THE ALL
TIME RAINFALL RECORD FOR THE SAN JUAN AREA IT IS PRETTY MUCH
DEFINITE THAT THIS RECORD WILL FALL SOMETIME BETWEEN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND TUE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKE A
GOOD BET THAT COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT LOOKS POSSIBLE THE LAST WEEK OF THE
YEAR WHICH WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE NEW RECORD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 81 / 70 80 80 50
STT 72 83 72 83 / 70 70 70 30

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (7pmET Sat-7pmET Sun)
for Sun Dec 19 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.3C 90F trace
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.2C 86F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.2C 86F 0.4mm

Point Salines, Grenada 30.0C 86F 0.4mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.8C 86F 3.0mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 30.3C 86F 22.9mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.0C 84F 17.8mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 28.9C 84F 20.3mm

Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.9C 86F 6.0mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 28.7C 84F 1.4mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.1C 82F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.6C 84F
San Juan Puerto Rico 30.0C 86F 1.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.0C 82F 0.3mm
Kingston, Jamaica 30.3C 86F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.7C 87F trace
Key West, Florida 20.6C 69F trace
Miami, Florida 20.0C 68F
Nassau, Bahamas 24.8C 77F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.8C 69F 5.1mm (thunderstorms reported this afternoon)

Hato Airport, Curacao 29.1C 85F 1.7mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.1C 86F 1.0mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 30.8C 87F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

The temperatures have been increasing more or less 1 °C per day since Thursday morning when very low temperatures were registered. These are today min and max temperatures, as you will see the high temperatures are quiet warm but the lows are still pretty cool:

San Salvador (El Salvador)
min:14.9°C/58.8°F max:29.8°C/85.6°F

San Miguel (El Salvador)
min: 17.2°C/63.0°F max: 35.1°C/95.2°F

Guatemala city (Guatemala)
min: 12.2°C/54°F max: 25°C/77°F

Belize city (Belize)
min: 18°C/64°F max:29°C/84°F

Tegucigalpa (Honduras)
min: 12°C/54°F max: 27°C/81°F

Managua (Nicaragua)
min: 20°C/68°F max: 32°C/90°F

San Jose (Costa Rica)
mon: 16.5°C/61.7°F max: 26.3°C/79.3°F

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON DEC 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD
WITH LONG WAVE MID LATITUDE TROUGHS PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES NORTH
NORTHEAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT HANGING SOUTH
OF IT WILL PULL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE A
BAND OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT FLOW WILL
REVERSE AND PULL THE ORIGINAL BOUNDARY REINFORCED WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA ON THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 5 AM AST A BAND OF CONVECTION LAY 20-43 MILES
NORTHWEST OF AGUADILLA AND WAS MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AT A SPEED OF 8 KNOTS...WHILE CELLS IN THE BAND WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BAND MAY BREAK UP AFTER CROSSING
INTO MAINLAND PUERTO RICO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER MOST
OF THE ISLAND AT THE TIME DUE TO LOCAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH
THE CONVERGENCE IN THE SHEAR LINE DRIVING THE CONVECTION. MOISTURE
REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE
WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE SHEAR-LINE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ON
THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AFTER TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS
ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE DOWN OUT OF THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AFTER
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR...BUT THIS JUST BARELY TOUCHES THE
NORTH COAST AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REVERSES AND THE DRY AIR CROSSES THE AREA AGAIN. MOISTURE
FROM THE OLD BOUNDARY THEN RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND LINGERS INTO MUCH
OF THE LAST WEEK OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 20/11Z. SHWRS AND ISOLD TSRA ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF PR
WITH PERIODS OF BKN MVFR CIGS BETWEEN FL020 TO FL030 EXPECTED AFT
20/14Z. LLVL SWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH 20/12Z...
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AROUND 20/15Z AND MORE NORTHERLY AFTER
21/03Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THEN
INCREASE...PEAKING EARLY ON THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY SHORTLY THEREAFTER ON COASTS
WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST EXPOSURES. CARIBBEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW
EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA EXCEPT WHERE THE ATLANTIC SWELLS MAKE IT
THROUGH THE PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 72 / 80 80 80 50
STT 84 73 84 73 / 70 70 40 40

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
830 AM AST MON DEC 20 2010

PRZ001-002-004>006-210030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0014.101220T1600Z-101221T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...
DORADO...COAMO...COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA
830 AM AST MON DEC 20 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON AST TODAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...CENTRAL INTERIOR...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND SAN JUAN AND VICINITY.

* FROM NOON AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THIS AIR
MASS...SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF
URBANIZED AREAS AS WELL AS LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

SR/LR
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------