CPAC: Tropical Storm OMEKA

[HURAKAN]

TS Omeka on the JMA weather map!

[Chacor]

Yeah, as of 0600 UTC too. They knew it was a TS; they just didn't want to be the ones to warn on them imo. Just like JTWC.

Anyway, still 45 knots at advisory #2.

FKPA21 PHFO 201430
TCAPA1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012010
1500 UTC MON DEC 20 2010

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20101220/1500Z
TCAC: PHFO
TC: OMEKA
NR: 002
PSN: N2136 W17648
MOV: NE 15KT
C: 0997HPA
MAX WIND: 045KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 202100 N2252 W17552
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 210300 N2418 W17504
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 210900 N2554 W17425
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 211500 N2734 W17345
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 035KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20101220/2100Z

$$

[Chacor]

WTPA41 PHFO 201455
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012010
500 AM HST MON DEC 20 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM OMEKA UNDER A SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE CENTER PEAKING OUT FROM
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE WESTERLY
SHEAR IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF OMEKA NEAR 28N
173W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS MIDWAY BETWEEN A CLOSE GROUP OF PGTW
AND HFO FIXES. THE 45 KNOT INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES OF 3.0
FROM BOTH PGTW AND HFO. BOTH PGTW AND HFO INDICATE A WEAKENING
OMEKA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH
FORECAST POSITIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOSELY PACKED GFDL...
HWF...AND GFS MODELS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THERE IS A WIDE DIVERGENCE
OF GUIDANCE. THE 36 AND 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS ARE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND ARE CLOSE TO HWF AND BAMM. THE FORECAST TRACK
PLACES OMEKA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL EAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND IN
ABOUT 30 HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT SHEAR WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE DEMISE OF OMEKA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. IN FACT...JUDGING BY THE WARMER
CLOUD TOPS IN THE LAST TWO GOES11 INFRARED IMAGES...OMEKA MAY
ALREADY BE ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE IN INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 21.6N 176.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 23.5N 175.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 26.7N 174.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 30.2N 172.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 34.1N 168.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

[CrazyC83]

So the JTWC and JMA completely missed this one? I'd say it was a typhoon for a while. Given the cold water over the T4.5 and out-of-season factor, I would guess some of the winds did not mix down and the peak intensity was 65-70 kt.

[Chacor]

JMA ended up with it as a TD although called it a "LOW" when it had an eye.

JTWC insisted it was subtropical all the way and did not issue advisories until the CPHC issued its first, and as the JTWC are required to retransmit the NHC/CPHC forecast/advisory in the EPAC and CPAC, they said the system managed to transition as it crossed the date line.

Likely story, but hey.

[HURAKAN]

keeping it for the record!

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on my own guesses, here is what I would have for the BT of the storm:

18/0600 - 23.8N / 178.6W - 40 kt / 1001mb - Subtropical storm
18/1200 - 23.6N / 178.7W - 40 kt / 1000mb - Tropical storm
18/1800 - 23.0N / 179.8W - 50 kt / 995mb
18/2000 - 22.8N / 179.9E - 55 kt / 991mb - Entered Western Pacific
19/0000 - 22.2N / 179.4E - 60 kt / 988mb
19/0600 - 21.6N / 179.1E - 65 kt / 985mb - Typhoon
19/1200 - 21.0N / 179.1E - 65 kt / 984mb - Peak intensity
19/1800 - 20.4N / 179.1E - 55 kt / 990mb - Tropical storm
20/0000 - 20.1N / 179.9E - 50 kt / 993mb
20/0100 - 20.2N / 179.8W - 50 kt / 994mb - Re-entered Central Pacific
20/0600 - 20.6N / 178.4W - 45 kt / 996mb
20/1200 - 21.0N / 177.3W - 45 kt / 997mb

The 65 kt intensity may be conservative; I am assuming that the Dvorak estimated winds did not exactly mix down well given the weaker than normal convection and cooler waters of late December.

[HURAKAN]

Weakening fast

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be down to about 35 kt now.

[HURAKAN]

looking like a poor sheared system

[CrazyC83]

WTPA31 PHFO 202041
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMEKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012010
1100 AM HST MON DEC 20 2010

...TROPICAL STORM OMEKA FAR WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS
WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 175.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMEKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 175.7 WEST. OMEKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM OMKEKA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNAMT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
OMEKA WILL NOT IMPACT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...OMEKA WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY
30 MILES WEST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT.
ANY INTERESTS ON LISIANSKI ISLAND AND NEARBY ISLANDS OR ATOLLS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS AND
INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

Some interesting facts about Omeka:

-Omeka is one of only 3 storms known to exist in December east of the International Dateline, the other two were 1997 Paka and 1983 Hurricane Winnie.

-It became the latest forming Pacific tropical storm east of the International Dateline and north of the equator since reliable record began in 1949.

-In addition, Omeka was the first tropical cyclone in the month of December in the western hemisphere since Tropical Storm Olga of 2007 in the Atlantic.

Source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Omeka#Tropical_Storm_Omeka

[HURAKAN]

exposed

[brunota2003]

Looking over the sat images...this system reminds me a lot of the Unnamed Hurricane of 1991 (the one that spun up inside of the dying Halloween Storm)

[HURAKAN]

Peak intensity seems to have occurred yesterday between 10-12Z

[Chacor]

Still a TS...

WTPA31 PHFO 210230
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMEKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012010
500 PM HST MON DEC 20 2010

...TROPICAL STORM OMEKA FAR WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS
WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 174.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 960 MI...1550 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMEKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 174.3 WEST. OMEKA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
OMEKA WILL NOT IMPACT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...OMEKA WILL PASS 10 TO 15
MILES EAST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT.
ANY INTERESTS ON LISIANSKI ISLAND AND NEARBY ISLANDS OR ATOLLS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS AND
INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

[Chacor]

WTPA41 PHFO 210243
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012010
500 PM HST MON DEC 20 2010

A COUPLE OF CBS MANAGED TO POP UP NEAR THE CENTER OF OMEKA BETWEEN
NOON AND 2PM. THESE CBS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AND NOW MOVED NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. NO CHANGES TO SAB AND HFO
DVORAK FIXES OF 2.0 AND 2.5 RESPECTIVELY. JTWC DVORAK FIX WAS
LOWERED TO 1.5 BASED ON SUBTROPICAL TECHNIQUE. ASCAT PASS INDICATED
A SMALL AREA OF 35 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF OMEKA WHILE
RAMMB/CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES
MAX WINDS AT 32 KT IN THE SAME AREA. INITIAL INTENSITY IS WEIGHTED
TOWARD HFO FIX AND ASCAT WINDS AND HELD AT 35 KT. INITIAL POSITION
IS VERY CLOSE TO POSITION ESTIMATES FROM ALL FIX AGENCIES.

FORECAST ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT OMEKA REMAINS TROPICAL OR IS
TRANSITIONING TO EXTRATROPICAL. RAMMB/CIRA T ANOMALY CROSS SECTION
FROM 16 UTC INDICATED A WARM CORE SYSTEM. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO GO AGAINST THIS...EVEN 12 PLUS HOURS LATER...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WEAKENING TREND DUE TO SHEAR AND LOWERING SSTS ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK WHILE KEEPING OMEKA AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH
24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING IT INTO A REMNANT LOW.

THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD THE EAST
GIVEN THE 2PM POSITION WAS FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS TRACK
TAKES OMEKA JUST EAST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND AT THE CLOSEST POINT OF
BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FORECAST WEAKENING...MAINTAIN
THE EARLIER DECISION NOT TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE NW HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IN THE ABSENCE OF THE CB
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER...A SHEAR PATTERN BASED ON THE LAST COUPLE
OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTS OMEKA MIGHT ALREADY BE BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 24.6N 174.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 27.1N 173.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 30.2N 172.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 33.7N 170.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

[HURAKAN]

oh, shear!!

[HURAKAN]

TS Ana, 2003.