ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Brent]

Yeah, I'm as speechless as the rest of you...

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, this invest really did sneak up on us for sure!

This just goes to show that Mother Nature always can generate some sort of surprise at any time.

[lester]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201012201816
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010122012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010121918, , BEST, 0, 106N, 504W, 20, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010122000, , BEST, 0, 107N, 516W, 20, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010122006, , BEST, 0, 109N, 528W, 20, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010122012, , BEST, 0, 112N, 540W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010122018, , BEST, 0, 116N, 551W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[CrazyC83]

Virginie, is there a Santa Claus? This sure came out of nowhere! I was watching the NHC site but didn't see much there...I guess they wait until at least Code Orange in the offseason.

Maybe there is no "hurricane season" after all!

[CrazyC83]

Convection is pretty modest (but impressive for the week before Christmas). Can't tell if there is a closed circulation under there.

[Cyclone1]

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat.

I had a feeling we'd get one more oddball invest before the year was out. Come on Virginie.

[RL3AO]

Um is it that Spanish April Fool's day yet? I know its this time of year.

[Cyclone1]

Um is it that Spanish April Fool's day yet? I know its this time of year.

Not yet. That's the 28th I believe.

[Hurricanehink]

From the TWD:

A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW EXTENDS FROM 13N53W THROUGH
THE LOW CENTER NEAR 11N54W TO INLAND OVER SURINAME NEAR 6N56W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ALONG THE COAST OF SURINAME S OF 7N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W.

[tolakram]

Crazy

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

Um is it that Spanish April Fool's day yet? I know its this time of year.

Not yet. That's the 28th I believe.

Yup,I am also speeachless.

[CrazyC83]

Shallower, but better organized...almost looks like a TD there. Given the time of year I am sure they would be very conservative though before calling it TD22.

[margiek]

Convection is pretty modest (but impressive for the week before Christmas). Can't tell if there is a closed circulation under there.

If it is designated as a low, then by definition there is (believed to be) a closed surface circulation.

What does the "DB" stand for in the operational best track file on this invest? I am drawing a blank for "DB."

Margie

[CrazyC83]

Convection is pretty modest (but impressive for the week before Christmas). Can't tell if there is a closed circulation under there.

If it is designated as a low, then by definition there is (believed to be) a closed surface circulation.

What does the "DB" stand for in the operational best track file on this invest? I am drawing a blank for "DB."

Margie

DB = Disturbance.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Santa Clause gave use Invest 95L for Christmas.

[margiek]

Convection is pretty modest (but impressive for the week before Christmas). Can't tell if there is a closed circulation under there.

If it is designated as a low, then by definition there is (believed to be) a closed surface circulation.

What does the "DB" stand for in the operational best track file on this invest? I am drawing a blank for "DB."

Margie

DB = Disturbance.

Thank you.

ASCAT from this morning showed a well-defined tropical wave, not a surface low at that time, but that is the time it was upgraded to disturbance, probably the convection that has since gone poof.

[HURAKAN]

my first reaction "what that ... " lol

[CrazyC83]

Code Orange. Best chance of becoming a TC is over the islands tomorrow.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202053
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW PASSES OVER
OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTH WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FUTURE SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

LOL

[RL3AO]

I'm assuming this isn't from a tropical wave correct?

Can you tell I haven't looked at an Atlantic sat image in 90 days?