ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know when was the last time,there was a system that is being watched,even with a colored circle by mid to late December?

[Florida1118]

You got to be kidding. I came on Storm2k and I see the map and there I see....Invest 95. Thought it was a mistake but no...Very Shocking indeed.

Does anyone know when was the last time,there was a system that is being watched,even with a colored circle by mid to late December?

Zeta, 2005 of course. Ran from Dec.30th-Jan.6th, 2006. Pretty dang rare though. Formed at about 25N,37W.

[GCANE]

I wouldn't be surprised if a hot-tower fires around sunrise.

Water is 29C and UL air cold.

I have seen huge hot-towers fire up in the Carib in December before.

If so, this could get a mid-level warm core to form.

[cycloneye]

7 PM EST TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS NEAR 11N56W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 13N53W TO 7N59W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
7N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
PASSES NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
10 KT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[margiek]

I'm assuming this isn't from a tropical wave correct?

Can you tell I haven't looked at an Atlantic sat image in 90 days?

Well...I interpreted this morning's ASCAT as the signature of a tropical wave and not a closed surface low. However it was identified as a low at that time in the TWDAT, as a disturbance in the operational best track for the invest, and previous TWDAT had indicated the development of a surface low along a trough in the ITCZ starting about three days ago. The btrk on the invest indicates it was a tropical wave prior to becoming slightly more interesting. On the Hovmöller Diagrams it looked like mainly a series of cold fronts in the eastern tropical ATL over the past week. I will try to get some feedback.

[HURAKAN]

high pressure on top

[HURAKAN]

00Z

AL, 95, 2010122100, , BEST, 0, 119N, 560W, 25, 1008, LO

[brunota2003]

Errr...really? It's snowing here and has been all month...how am I supposed to even think about tropical systems? Chalk it up as very weird...just like the DB in the CPAC that had an eye a couple days ago.

[Chacor]

First Omeka and now this? Wow.

[dixiebreeze]

Shock and awe -- We're freezing tonight in west central Florida! This is Dec. 20, right?

[HURAKAN]

everyone is in shock and awe!

[caribepr]

Weird...Winter Solstice, lunar eclipse and 95...

[Gustywind]

That's insane !!!

[cycloneye]

They are still tracking it.

AL, 95, 2010122112, , BEST, 0, 130N, 588W, 20, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[cycloneye]

It was a very funny thing to watch in Christmas,but all has to end.

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL AND
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

So very good news Cycloneye, glad to see that we could hope for a nice Christmas day if this thing stay like that

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Frank2]

Does anyone know when was the last time,there was a system that is being watched,even with a colored circle by mid to late December?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lili_(1984)

P.S. I did see last night's eclipse (the sky was clear in South Florida) - I also had a dim view of the Miky Way at the same time - awesome and in certain ways reminded me of the Apollo 8 earthrise photo taken on Christmas Eve:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_8#Earthrise

Merry Christmas everyone,

Frank

[stormcrow]

I was so hoping this would develope and not only would we see TD22 but a named storm for Christmas. Then I could finaly say " Yes Santa Claus there really is a Virginie"

[RL3AO]

Let the 90L watch begin.