Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[HockeyTx82]

Ok, so are you all saying there is a chance of some winter stuff this weekend or later in the week? I am a bit confused as to what might happen and when. Busy day here at work and just trying to make sure I understand what you all are seeing. I am asking in regards to NTX.

[Portastorm]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm speaking mainly about the period between Christmas and New Years and the potential for rainfall. Others here have speculated that there could be a chance of some frozen precip in parts of north Texas around Christmas based on some model runs. Personally, I think anywhere from the DFW metroplex south has very, very little chance of that happening. At this point, we're just hoping to squeeze out some rainfall.

Based on the atmospheric markers I mentioned earlier, I think there's an increased chance of rainfall for Texas east of I-35 between Christmas and New Years. But other than maybe the Panhandle, I don't see snow/ice as a likelihood for anyone in Texas during that period.

[natlib]

The larger-scope atmospheric signals are somewhat encouraging for a pattern change to more possible "wetness" for us in the Southern Plains.

The MJO is headed into Phase 7 (and possibly later Phase 8) and that often means wetter than normal and cooler than normal for the Southern Plains. The AO and NAO are progged to remain negative so we'll have plenty of frosty air to our north. And the PNA is progged to get closer to neutral than currrently which should make for a more active southern jet.

Portastorm......when is your best guesstimate of when we might see the effects of the pattern change if it verifies???

[TwisterFanatic]

Local Pro-Mets starting to believe in the chance now for some snow here in Oklahoma.

[Portastorm]

Based on the various model runs I have seen ... I'd say we should be seeing moisture on the increase in parts of Texas by the 27th or 28th of December. Maybe if we're lucky, we all can get some much-needed rainfall.

Even before that ... I think the Christmas front is going to be a strong one (in terms of temperature drops) and the lower in latitude we can get that storm system going through the state ... the better chance we all have with some rainfall!

Maybe our man srainhoutx -- who has been banging the pattern change drum for a while now -- will have more info for us?!

[Ntxw]

Based on the various model runs I have seen ... I'd say we should be seeing moisture on the increase in parts of Texas by the 27th or 28th of December. Maybe if we're lucky, we all can get some much-needed rainfall.

Even before that ... I think the Christmas front is going to be a strong one (in terms of temperature drops) and the lower in latitude we can get that storm system going through the state ... the better chance we all have with some rainfall!

Maybe our man srainhoutx -- who has been banging the pattern change drum for a while now -- will have more info for us?!

Surprised he hasn't already! Euro is painting us a good Pacific AMG! S/W storms! Here's to hope the +PNA comes into play.

[srainhoutx]

Good analysis there Portastorm. Not much time for as I am extremely busy today and did not spend a lot of time going over the various charts, but the beginning of the change can be seen with the Christmas storm and continuing into the pre New Years Eve timeframe. The wave lengths are decreasing and the SJT is responding to the MJO pulse. Looking out in the Pacific, one will notice we have a tropical system that has just exited the CPAC heading W. The tropical forcing is not real strong, but in this blocking regime of -AO and -NAO, it doesn't take much. Nice to see the PNA continue to climb to neutral. It is also becoming clear that the Christmas Eve storm will in fact be a closed Upper Low and that is a big step toward some moisture for our drought parched region. More later as I have time or in the morning after the 00Z guidance is in.

[Ntxw]

Pretty strong cold front today yet not much chatter about it . It's sitting at 48 in Oklahoma City, and near record 83 in Dallas as the front is on the doorstep of DFW.

[somethingfunny]

Pretty strong cold front today yet not much chatter about it . It's sitting at 48 in Oklahoma City, and near record 83 in Dallas as the front is on the doorstep of DFW.

Too busy contemplating how crazy it is that I want to find an open swimming pool on the first day of winter. Is this crazier than getting 8" of snow on the first day of spring?

[Ntxw]

The Christmas time frame storm is getting its act together off the west coast. Looks like it's digging nicely to me.

[TwisterFanatic]

Tulsa NWS now putting some Snow in the forecast for Friday/Friday night.


Getting my popcorn ready.

[Ntxw]

This one is for Portastorm to frame up on his wall. 11 days to go!

[HockeyTx82]

The Christmas time frame storm is getting its act together off the west coast. Looks like it's digging nicely to me.

So it sounds like the cold will be there, no one is questioning that. Is it just a matter of storm timing and moisture amount? I see that the forecast for Friday has 60% chance of rain for my area. I don't think that was there earlier today. I just hope later this week we start the "it's to warm to stick" arguments.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looking at the GFS, it looks like this could be a pretty prolonged "cold snap".

[Portastorm]

Ntxw ... dude, I know!!

It's the New Years Day Blizzard for Texas. Don't you just love the 18z GFS runs?! I got heart palpitations just looking at that run.

[srainhoutx]

Fits nicely with that pattern change, doesn't it?

[Ntxw]

Time for some 0z updates shall we?

NAM so far seems to dig the trough out west even further than previous runs. Cali/Mexico border early on.

[iorange55]

Favorite time of the day.

[Ntxw]

at 60hrs snow is breaking out in Kansas and NW Oklahoma. The difference here is that it seems wetter than previous runs. Perhaps a more robust system.

[iorange55]

at 60hrs snow is breaking out in Kansas and NW Oklahoma. The difference here is that it seems wetter than previous runs. Perhaps a more robust system.

66hrs looks like a strong band of rain about to hit North Texas. Looks like the little blue line might be trying to creepy south faster too...maybe.