Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Hi, a quiet strong earthquake (magnitude 5.5) was registered about an hour ago in El Salvador but thankfully there are no reports of damages or injuries, you can see more info about this quake on this thread: El Salvador Seismic Activity

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST MON DEC 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA WED AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DENSE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS DELAYED CONVECTION
FROM GETTING GOING. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY ACROSS THE NORTH COAST WHICH SHOULD
AID IN TEMPS REACH ITS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. WITH ACTUAL CDFNT
STILL HANGING BACK OFF OF THE NW COAST OF PR THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COAST
THIS EVENING. MAIN OPPORTUNITY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5PM-11PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THAT
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH WED MORNING ESPECIALLY ALG THE
NORTH COAST BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. FLOOD
WATCH SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME
OR IF NOT SOONER.

DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG 20N SAT BUT ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY AND STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP. MOISTURE
THEN RETURNS VERY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND THE
USVI THROUGH 2023Z IN A PASSING SHRA OR TSRA. AFT 2023Z...EXPECT FRONT
TO NW OF PR TO BEGIN TO IMPACT TJBQ WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS ALL PR TAF SITES AND USVI
SITES OVERNIGHT...REACHING TNCM AND TKPK BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LLVL WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION UP TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE BUT
NORTH SWELLS WILL BUILD QUICKLY WED WITH SCA AND HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS LIKELY.


&&

.CLIMATE...WITH ONLY 0.20 INCHES NEEDED TO BREAK THE ALL-TIME
RAINFALL RECORD IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY DEFINITE THAT THIS RECORD
WILL FALL BEFORE THE WEEK IS OVER. PLEASE REFER TO WEB PAGE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 PM AST MON DEC 20 2010

PRC051-137-143-202315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0591.101220T2118Z-101220T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-TOA BAJA PR-
518 PM AST MON DEC 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA...DORADO AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 715 PM AST

* AT 515 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING
ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST THOUGH 7:15 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6634 1847 6620 1839 6626 1838 6637

$$

MARTINEZ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[BZSTORM]

Hi, a quiet strong earthquake (magnitude 5.5) was registered about an hour ago in El Salvador but thankfully there are no reports of damages or injuries, you can see more info about this quake on this thread: El Salvador Seismic Activity

Glad to hear about no reported damages or injuries, wow looks like 2010 going out with a bang what with earthqualkes and now invest 95L off Barbados - the shocks keep rolling in.

[cycloneye]

I am in shock as I see this invest just east of the islands.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW PASSES OVER
OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTH WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FUTURE SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

[msbee]

Hi, a quiet strong earthquake (magnitude 5.5) was registered about an hour ago in El Salvador but thankfully there are no reports of damages or injuries, you can see more info about this quake on this thread: El Salvador Seismic Activity

thats a strong earthquake. so glad everything is OK there

[msbee]

I am in shock as I see this invest just east of the islands.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW PASSES OVER
OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTH WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FUTURE SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

you have got to be kidding!

[cycloneye]

2010 is now the wettest of all time

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST MON DEC 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH HISPANIOLA EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND CONTINUING NORTHWARD TO A
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
BOUNDARY IS MOVING RAPIDLY AND FOR THAT REASON DRIER AIR WILL MOVES
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY...DRIER AND
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG 20N SATURDAY BUT ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY AND STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO...WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT ALL PR TAF SITES TONIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE VI
OVERNIGHT...REACHING TNCM/TKPK EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LLVL WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION UP TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...AT 1000 PM AST...A TOTAL OF 88.66 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN...SO FAR THIS YEAR...MAKING 2010 THE WETTEST YEAR
ON ALL-TIME RECORD AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS
SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS RECORD BACK ON 1931 WHEN 87.55 INCHES WERE
ACCUMULATED.

[Macrocane]

And 79 years later that record was finally broken in San Juan .

[Gustywind]

I am in shock as I see this invest just east of the islands.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW PASSES OVER
OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTH WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FUTURE SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

That's insane i'm amazed too Cycloneye. Hope that nothing will form from 95L!

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST TUE DEC 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS... A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A RELATIVELY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BEFORE RETURNS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY TRADES WILL
BRING PATCHY/SHALLOW MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT...AFFECTING ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS. THE 06Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
A SHARP DECREASE IN PWAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. MOISTURE THEN RETURNS VERY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS
DAY AS THE WIND CHANGES DIRECTION AND PULL THE ORIGINAL BOUNDARY
REINFORCED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAS SLOWED DOWN AND WAS JUST SOUTH
OF TISX AT 21/06Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH
22/03Z AND WILL CAUSE PERSISTENT MVFR CONDS IN THE VCNTY. ALSO NORTH
COAST STATIONS IN PR INCLUDING TJSJ AND TJBQ COULD HAVE OCNL MVFR AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. LLVL FLOW IS NNW
AT THE SFC BUT BECOMES S-SW-WSW BETWEEN 5-10 KFT. ONLY BRIEF MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT TNCM AND TKPK AFT 21/10Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SURF IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY ON THE NORTHERN SHORES OF BOTH PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 88.66 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN...
SO FAR THIS YEAR...MAKING 2010 THE WETTEST YEAR ON ALL-TIME RECORD
AT THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THIS SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS RECORD
BACK ON 1931 WHEN 87.55 INCHES WERE ACCUMULATED.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy Barbara,that was hilarious. It was a funny thing to see during this Christmas time,but it's over for this small system.

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL AND
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[msbee]

Good morning Luis
Thankfully it won't develop.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL AND
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY.


strange weather though all over the world!

[cycloneye]

The graphic says it all about the new record of rainfall in San Juan.Below is the text of the information about the new record.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju//?n=rainfall2010

[Macrocane]

A surface continental ridge has been producing weak but cool northerly winds over Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador since yesterday, the northerly winds were experienced yesterday only in the morning hours and in the afternoon they came from the south. Let's see if today the northerly winds stay all day or shift again. Today the minimum temperatures dropped 1°C or so when compared to yesterday:

San Salvador, El Salvador: 14.9°C (58.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador: 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Belize city, Belize: 18°C (64.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala: 11°C (52°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala: -3°C (26°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras: 11°C (52°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras: 8°C (46°F)

[abajan]

... strange weather though all over the world!

Indeed. There was quite a bit of rain earlier and I just saw some pretty spectacular forked lightning and thunder. I can't remember the last time we have had thunderstorms so late in the year.

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory in effect

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1134 AM AST TUE DEC 21 2010

...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...

.LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL INVADE THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS
AND REEFS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-220800-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0021.101222T1000Z-101224T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1134 AM AST TUE DEC 21 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM AST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM AST FRIDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF: WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET...AND LOCALLY
LARGER...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES
SHOALS AND REEFS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

* TIMING: SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASINGLY
LARGE BREAKING WAVES TO THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING AT 6
AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

* THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 10:07 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 1.9 FEET.

ENSENADA HONDA CULEBRA: 9:33 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 1.2 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 10:35 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 1.6 FEET.

PUNTA MULAS VIEQUES: 9:53 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 1.4 FEET.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST TUE DEC 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE WEAK MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO
WEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A BROAD
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTED BY A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MODERATE NORTHERLY TRADES WILL BRING PATCHES OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HOWEVER
BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND QUICK PASSING...AFFECTING ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE A CONSISTENT
IN SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN PWAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM NORTH. SO FOR NOW LOOKING
FOR ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
A GRADUAL RETURN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND PULLS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 22/00Z IN A PASSING SHRA OR VCSH. EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT
THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONTINUED BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...THE
VI...TNCM AND TKPK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 22/14Z. LLVL
WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO BE NNE AT LESS THAN 15 KTS FOR NEXT 24
HOURS.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rainfall is 7pmET Mon-7pmET Tues) for
Tue Dec 21 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 34.2C 94F 8.0mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.9C 86F 7.1mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.5C 86F 1.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 29.5C 86F 9.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 27.2C 81F 20.9mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 30.6C 87F 30.2mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.1C 88F 2.8mm

Hewannora, St Lucia 30.2C 86F 1.4mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.5C 86F trace
Le Lamentin, Martinique 30.1C 86F 0.2mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.4C 83F trace
Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.2C 81F 12.8mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 26.7C 80F 28.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 26.7C 80F
Kingston, Jamaica 28.7C 84F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 29.0C 84F
Havana, Cuba 25.0C 77F
Miami, Florida 23.3C 74F

Nassau, Bahamas 23.2C 74F
Hamilton, Bermuda 15.4C 59F 5.5mm

-justin-

[Gustywind]