Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
634 AM AST WED DEC 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL REGION
ON THURSDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD WILL LINGER DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BEFORE RETURNS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY
TRADES RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCED MODERATE RAINFALL THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED
OVER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN A FEW LOCAL AREAS ACROSS MANATI...BAYAMON
AND RIO GRANDE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTH. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH SHARP DECREASE
IN ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A
SHARP DROP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM
NORTH. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS
TRANSLATES TO INCREASED CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND
2.25 INCHES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY...WE
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS
WE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WILL BE THE HIGH RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS...AS
LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS...PROMOTE LARGE BREAKING WAVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS MEETING BOUNDARIES SAGGING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND CAUSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NRN USVI
AND THE NORTH COAST OF PR. THIS IS LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN
TJBQ...TJSJ...AND TIST AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS IN PR AND
SAINT THOMAS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO CAUSE BRIEF MVFR ON
TKPK...TNCM AND TISX. LLVL WINDS ARE NE BELOW 5 KFT AND W OR WSW
ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS WILL QUICKLY
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THE REST OF TODAY...PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS. SWELL AT BUOY 41043 HAVE ALREADY REACHED 12
FEET AT 14 SECONDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 78 71 / 40 20 0 0
STT 83 71 82 71 / 30 20 10 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST WED DEC 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYERED LONG WAVE TROUGH AND BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BAND OF
MOISTURE NOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH
TRAILING EDGE OF FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AS IT CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MODERATE NORTHERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL WILL HOWEVER BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
QUICK PASSING... AFFECTING ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF AND EAST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND PARTS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED DRYING TREND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES AS INDICATED BY
LATEST 12Z TJSJ U/A SOUNDING...AND MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS.

SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A DRIER AND
OVERALL STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF ONLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EACH DAY...
MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A GRADUAL
RETURN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND PULLS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND THAT ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL CONVERGE ACROSS
THE REGION TO BRING A WETTER PATTERN ACROSS ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN CLOUD DECK OF 6-10 KFT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH 23/12Z...WITH BREEZY NNE WINDS OF 10-20G25KT
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 23/00Z...RELAXING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THEREAFTER. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED TJSJ...TIST AND TJBQ FROM
22/22Z-23/02Z AS PASSING BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. VRF REMAINDER OF TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUED TO BE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND BUOY DATA HAD ALREADY REPORTED NORTH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS BETWEEN 10-11 FEET. EXPECT THESE SWELLS
TO PEAK A FEW FEET HIGHER DURING THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TO BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SWELL GENERATED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 79 70 80 / 20 0 0 10
STT 69 82 70 82 / 20 10 0 0

[Gustywind]

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rainfall 7pmET Tues-7pmET Wed) for
Wed Dec 22 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 29.5C 85F 11.0mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 27.3C 81F 5.6mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.6C 87F 0.1mm
Point Salines, Grenada 29.9C 86F 7.0mm

Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.2C 86F 0.7mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 29.9C 86F 1.0mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.3C 86F 13.0mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 27.4C 81F 28.3mm
Vigie, St Lucia 26.2C 79F 77.0mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 28.8C 84F trace
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.3C 85F 2.6mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.4C 83F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.0C 81F 3.3mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 25.6C 78F 8.5mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 26.8C 80F
Kingston, Jamaica 28.7C 84F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 28.6C 84F 0.4mm
Havana, Cuba 25.3C 77F
Miami, Florida 24.4C 76F
Nassau, Bahamas 24.0C 75F

Hamilton, Bermuda 17.8C 64F 0.8mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST WED DEC 22 2010

.UPDATE...EXPECT VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT SEND A ZFP
UPDATE. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR
ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH SWELLS WILL PEAK ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS...WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
615 AM AST THU DEC 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BAND OF MOISTURE NOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WILL CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
NWS DOPPLER RADAR DID NOT REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT MAINTAINING THE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO WILL
DAMPED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE
TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT MORE CLEAR SKIES CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LARGE SWELL AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES (DUE TO
NEAR FULL MOON CONDITIONS) WILL GENERATE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN USVI THROUGH 2 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 23/22Z. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE..DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY AS LOCAL BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT LARGE SWELLS WITH LONG
PERIODS. THE BUOY 41043 CONTINUES TO REPORT SEAS OF ABOVE 13 FEET
AT 17 SECONDS. THIS SAME BUOY REPORTED SWELLS OF 17.7 FEET AT 15
SECONDS. THESE SWELLS WILL ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM. THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC BUOY IS ALSO
REPORTING SEAS OF ABOVE 12 FEET AT 13 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SWELL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ACROSS THE LOCAL NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME...THESE SWELLS WILL NOT SUBSIDE ENOUGH
BEFORE HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE INLAND LOWLANDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY WILL BE ARRIVING ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS NEXT SWELL EVENT WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THERE WILL A TIME PERIOD OF BETTER MARINE
CONDITIONS BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THE INCOMING WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SWELL EVENT ASSOCIATED TO A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS FROM MID WEEK INTO THE NEW YEAR WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 70 80 73 / 0 0 10 30
STT 83 69 82 73 / 10 0 0 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST THU DEC 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO CHRISTMAS DAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CREEP NORTHWARD
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...EXPECT THIS FAIR WEATHER TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAY SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE CHRISTMAS DAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE
ISLAND...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN A DEEP SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WHILE SEAS PEAKED ACROSS THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL PULSES OF
VERY LARGE SWELL CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS OF 2
PM AST...SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AT BUOY 41043
ABOUT 150 MILES TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...AND HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST 8 AM AST TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS PEAKED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A SECOND SURGE IN NORTHERLY SWELLS
IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

DUE TO LARGE SWELLS...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST
8 AM AST TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES FOR NEXT
24 HOURS IN LLVL NE WIND FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS. NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (7pmET Wed-7pmET Thurs) for
Thu Dec 23 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.1C 88F 1.0mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.3C 86F
Crown Point, Tobago 29.6C 86F 0.1mm
Point Salines, Grenada 28.3C 83F 0.3mm

Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.7C 86F 4.3mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 28.5C 84F 27.0mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 28.7C 84F trace
Vigie, St Lucia 29.0C 84F 1.0mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 28.6C 84F
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.3C 85F trace
VC Bird, Antigua 28.1C 82F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.8C 82F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 26.7C 80F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 26.3C 79F
Kingston, Jamaica 28.2C 83F
Havana, Cuba 24.9C 77F
Key West, Florida 21.1C 70F
Miami, Florida 24.4C 76F
Nassau, Bahamas 24.2C 76F
Hamilton, Bermuda 18.4C 65F 3.4mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 29.6C 86F
QUeen Beatrix, Aruba 31.1C 88F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 29.7C 86F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Good evening. Northerly winds (the strongest in more than one week) have been affecting El Salvador and other Central American countries the whole day, the ridge that produced the winds has weakened so tomorrow the winds will be weaker but the temperatures may be lower. The minimum temperatures and maximum wind gusts registered today in some locations:

Minimum temperatures
Belize city, Belize 18°C (64°F)
Guatemala city,Guatemala 10°C (50°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -4.6°C ((23.7°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 14°C (57°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.7°C (45.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 6°C (43°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.3°C (63.1°F)

Wind gusts
Guatemala city, Guatemala 65 km/h (41 mph)
Ishuatan, El Salvador 45 km/h (28 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28 km/h (18 mph)
Nueva Ocotepeque, Honduras 48 km/h (30 mph)
Choluteca, Honduras 35 km/h (22 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 38 km/h (24 mph)

[Macrocane]

The latest TWD mentions the winds in Central America:

GAP WINDS...
WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FRI EVENING...THEN WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KT SAT EVENING. THE MARINE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WIND EVENT COULD TAKE PLACE. FOR THIS PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE GULFS
OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH
THESE GULFS FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning and Merry Christmas to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST FRI DEC 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CREEP NORTHWARD LATE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND SHOWERS FREE CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
DRY WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A SLIGHT INCREASE ON MOISTURE COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE HISPANIOLA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 24/22Z. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOYS 41043 AND 41053 CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS
SUBSIDING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY SWELLS IS EXPECTED AFTER NOON
ON SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN HIGH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 70 81 72 / 10 30 30 40
STT 84 71 83 74 / 0 20 30 50

[Gustywind]

Good morning and Merry Christmas to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST FRI DEC 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CREEP NORTHWARD LATE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND SHOWERS FREE CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
DRY WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A SLIGHT INCREASE ON MOISTURE COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE HISPANIOLA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 24/22Z. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOYS 41043 AND 41053 CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS
SUBSIDING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY SWELLS IS EXPECTED AFTER NOON
ON SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN HIGH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 70 81 72 / 10 30 30 40
STT 84 71 83 74 / 0 20 30 50

Thanks Luis, Merry Christmas to you my friend from PR. Guadeloupe don't forget you!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST FRI DEC 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP
NORTHWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLAND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE
APPROACHING 20 NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONVERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING
IN SEVERAL DAYS OF GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY DRIER AND
BREEZY WEATHER.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. DUE TO LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH 11 AM AST SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURG THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH...THEN BACKING WITH HEIGHT AND BCMG WEST AND
NORTHWEST BTW 10-20 KTS UP TO NR 100 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DECREASED A BIT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND WILL GO INTO AFFECT FOR ALL
THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES CHRISTMAS DAY AS ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG
PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS INVADES THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 81 70 83 / 50 50 40 40
STT 70 83 74 84 / 40 40 50 50

[msbee]

Merry Christmas to all my Storm 2k friends!

[cycloneye]

Same to you Barbara. On another topic,I felt a big quake around 7:43 PM.See more details at the Eastern Caribbean Seismic Activity thread.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2100712#p2100712

[cycloneye]

Good morning on this Christmas day.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST SAT DEC 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO INDUCE A WET PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WAS MAINLY CLEAR WITH NO
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS
MOST OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES..AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...BY 3 AM AST...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BEGAN TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AND BY THAT TIME...ALL PUERTO RICO WAS COVER
BY CLOUDS. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVERAGE...TEMPERATURE DIDN`T DROPPED TOO
MUCH...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...BY 5 AM AST...THE
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN MOST COASTAL
AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...AND
NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA...LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOWED A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THIS AREA LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL NOT LAST FOR TOO LONG. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR 2.0
INCHES BY MONDAY. ALSO...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...INCREASING EVEN MORE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION. CONDITIONS LOOKS WORSE FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ALSO LATER NEXT
WEEK...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP A WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 25/2200Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS.
AROUND 25/1200Z THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TO BECOME NORTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 8 AM AST THIS MORNING. REFER TO CFWSJU
PRODUCT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 70 84 72 / 50 40 40 40
STT 82 73 85 76 / 40 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SAT DEC 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT BRUSHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A JET
ENTRANCE AT UPPER LEVELS. NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH...ONLY THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH OVER CUBA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERS NEAR THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH PAST
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND DISSIPATE. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CLEAR FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH
THROUGH LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS
MOIST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND AS OF 2:30 PM AST HAS SPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM AGUADA TO
AIBONITO TO NAGUABO WITH TRACES REGISTERED IN SAINT THOMAS. THE
GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TO KISS PUERTO RICO AND
DISSIPATE SUNDAY WHILE GREATER MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NAM IS SIMILAR BUT STRONGER
WITH THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 27/12Z. THE GFS
FOLLOWS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW THEN
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT SATURDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE. BEST
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT OCCUR MONDAY
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE IS SIMILAR ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND POPS SOMEWHAT MID WEEK. FEW OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ AND TIST THROUGH
26/12Z. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 26/06Z...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AFT
26/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW 7 FEET ON TUESDAY BUT A NEW
SWELL TRAIN ALMOST AS LARGE RAISES SEAS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK FOR THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. MUCH OF ZONE
732 AND 735 SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL ALSO BE SHADOWED FROM THE
HIGHER SEAS...DESPITE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE
EDGES. SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE CARIBBEAN BY
COMPARISON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 82 72 83 / 30 20 40 40
STT 72 84 75 83 / 30 40 50 50

[tropicana]

Merry Christmas to all Storm2kers

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain 7pmET Fri-7pmET Sat) for
Sat Dec 25 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.0C 89F 0.1mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.6C 86F 5.1mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.2C 85F 5.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 29.9C 86F 0.7mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.4C 85F 1.0mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 26.2C 79F 27.7mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.9C 86F 31.8mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 29.1C 84F 12.4mm
Vigie, St Lucia 27.4C 81F 15.0mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 27.7C 82F 1.8mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 27.6C 82F 8.6mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.8C 82F
VC Bird, Antigua 27.8C 82F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 26.7C 80F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 27.0C 81F
Kingston, Jamaica 29.6C 86F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 29.4C 85F

Havana, Cuba 25.7C 78F 0.2mm
Key West, Florida 23.3C 74F
Miami, Florida 23.9C 75F
Nassau, Bahamas 23.8C 75F
Hamilton, Bermuda 18.4C 65F 3.3mm

Hato, Curacao 26.7C 80F 2.3mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 27.1C 81F 24.0mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 27.1C 81F 1.7mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning.It looks like the last week of 2010 will be a wet one.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST SUN DEC 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO INDUCE A WET PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO...FROM FAJARDO WEST TO DORADO.
ALSO...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE WEATHER
LOCALLY...BUT ITS INFLUENCE HAS BEEN REPLACED BY THE REMNANTS OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AND WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
SURFACE WINDS HAS SHIFTED AND NOW ARE FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...AND IN OCCASIONS...FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WIND FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT...LOCATED THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHICH...COMBINING WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...WILL
ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY
THURSDAY...RETURNING TO A MORE DRIER AIR MASS...AND NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW. IN FACT...GFS COMPUTER MODEL IS SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT...BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...A WET WEEK IS IN STORE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS STARTING TONIGHT...AND LASTING PROBABLY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS LOCAL
TAFS SITES THROUGH 26/22Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AFTER 26/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS HAVE PEAKED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY.

IN ADDITION...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
UNTIL 11 AM AST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 74 / 20 40 40 30
STT 85 74 84 75 / 40 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SUN DEC 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHILE
STRONG AND BROAD MID LATITUDE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
SOUTH OF A DEEPENING LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE
UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY SLOW
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY MAKE
IT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO CLOSE TO SAINT CROIX BY THURSDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH ALL BUT FRIDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LITTLE DETECTED NEAR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND AMASSING TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT WILL MEET
THE INCOMING FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THERE IS ALSO A SLOT
OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THE FRONT
SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT HOVERS VERY CLOSE AND FLOW
BECOMES EASTERLY. BY THURSDAY THE FRONT IS GENERALLY PAST THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF ALL TERRAIN. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A WEAKNESS OF MOISTURE...BUT BANDS OF MOISTURE IN THE
FLOW DEVELOP AND WASH THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IN THE NEW YEAR. THROUGH THE WEEK
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND GENERALLY WET...WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR GREAT ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT IN THE AREAS
THAT ARE USUALLY THE WETTEST.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 27/00Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AND AROUND
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. IN ADDITION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF PUERTO RICO TIL 26/22Z. AFT 27/00Z...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THEREFORE...MVFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED AFT 27/05Z. LLVL WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 27/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL BELOW 7 FEET AS THE LAST OF
THE NORTHERLY SWELL MOVE THROUGH. A NEW TRAIN OF NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL RIDE IN ON TUESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...AND POSSIBLY
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES...WILL BE NEEDED. MODEL MAY AGAIN BE 1 FOOT TOO
HIGH...BUT WILL HOLD TO 7 FOOT SEAS UNTIL ALL BUOYS INDICATE LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 81 / 50 50 30 50
STT 74 84 75 84 / 40 30 20 40