Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[sherry]

After the Euros comes out in a few hours will they be able to start putting a what to expect out or will it still be a wait and see announcement?

[RL3AO]

After the Euros comes out in a few hours will they be able to start putting a what to expect out or will it still be a wait and see announcement?

Too much error with snowfall, even 48 hours out. Two days ago this was looking like an Iowa/Illinois/Missouri event.

[Ntxw]

NAM and GFS says near miss. They are a bit too fast compared to the EC 12z for maximum efficiency. GFS seems to pull up warmer air from the Atlantic. Perhaps the euro's bias of digging S/W is coming into play. Based on satellite the S/W energy is moving progressively and losing steam from what I can notice for now.

[Brent]

BMX pulled the trigger.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
843 PM CST WED DEC 22 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-231200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
843 PM CST WED DEC 22 2010

...SNOW POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SNOW TO
MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AND
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE HAS STEADILY INCREASED THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL EXPERIENCE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
WINTER WEATHER EVENT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
EVENING. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN WITH THE SYSTEM...THE EXPECTED
CHANGEOVER WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE AND STEADILY
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO SUNSET.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST INFORMATION...MANY AREAS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER...MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARDS
TO THIS FORECAST...AND CERTAINLY THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL LARGE AND LOOMING QUESTIONS.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL DIRECTLY
AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AS NEW INFORMATION
IS INTRODUCED...THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
UPDATED.

WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW.

[bella_may]

It kills me how the local weather people are acting like there is no chance at all when they know dang well that there is a chance.I guess they just don't wanna get peoples hopes up. Especially little kids

[Ivanhater]

NAM and GFS says near miss. They are a bit too fast compared to the EC 12z for maximum efficiency. GFS seems to pull up warmer air from the Atlantic. Perhaps the euro's bias of digging S/W is coming into play. Based on satellite the S/W energy is moving progressively and losing steam from what I can notice for now.

00Z Ukie is digging far south and sending the southern stream vort into the Gulf at 72 similar to the Euro.

[Ntxw]

NAM and GFS says near miss. They are a bit too fast compared to the EC 12z for maximum efficiency. GFS seems to pull up warmer air from the Atlantic. Perhaps the euro's bias of digging S/W is coming into play. Based on satellite the S/W energy is moving progressively and losing steam from what I can notice for now.

00Z Ukie is digging far south and sending the southern stream vort into the Gulf at 72 similar to the Euro.

Yeah. The thing I was pointing out was that the Euro was slower with the SW energy. It had the 500mb vorticity in N Arizona by 12z tomorrow. The low is already on the border of AZ and CA. If we want the right timing for phasing, would need it to slow down much more. It's getting to that time period where we should watch what's going on live vs looking too deeply into models .

[Ivanhater]

NAM and GFS says near miss. They are a bit too fast compared to the EC 12z for maximum efficiency. GFS seems to pull up warmer air from the Atlantic. Perhaps the euro's bias of digging S/W is coming into play. Based on satellite the S/W energy is moving progressively and losing steam from what I can notice for now.

00Z Ukie is digging far south and sending the southern stream vort into the Gulf at 72 similar to the Euro.

Yeah. The thing I was pointing out was that the Euro was slower with the SW energy. It had the 500mb vorticity in N Arizona by 12z tomorrow. The low is already on the border of AZ and CA. If we want the right timing for phasing, would need it to slow down much more.

Yeah, I'm really hoping it doesn't book it. The slower the better...

[bella_may]

I just spoke to a meteorologist out of the biloxi area and she said not much of a chance of snow here. Said it will be too warm and the moisture will already be gone

[Ivanhater]

I just spoke to a meteorologist out of the biloxi area and she said not much of a chance of snow here. Said it will be too warm and the moisture will already be gone

It's all going to depend on the strength and track of the low. If the low bombs over the Gulf like the Euro is showing, you will see a nice coma-head develop on the NW side of the low swinging in cold air.

[Ntxw]

Canadian looks ugly. The northern stream is dominating squashing the southern stream and amps it up too slow. Lets hope the Euro can stick to it's guns. If it doesn't, I'm not liking the chances because the storm is onshore and usually around this time frame we get a good picture.

[bella_may]

Hopefully we'll know a lot more when the new euro models come out

[MississippiWx]

Got a feeling the next EURO model run will be much weaker with the system. Not good that the models are starting to swing the other way this late in the game.

[MississippiWx]

New Canadian doesn't look so bad for us here in Southern Mississippi. Doesn't show quite as much moisture for areas farther north in MS, AL, GA, but it's still similar to the EURO.

[Ivanhater]

We have some good news from the 00z so far.

GFS ensemble is looking good

[MississippiWx]

Hey, Michael...

The ensembles look to be stronger with the low now, don't they?

[Ivanhater]

Hey, Michael...

The ensembles look to be stronger with the low now, don't they?

Yeah they do, which indicates a spread still. Really rare and tough pattern here...

[MississippiWx]

Hey, Michael...

The ensembles look to be stronger with the low now, don't they?

Yeah they do, which indicates a spread still. Really rare and tough pattern here...

The thing that keeps me hoping is the European's consistency. The GFS has only had the European's idea for about a day or so, while the European has had the same idea for over 3 days. It seems like the GFS can't decide what will happen. If the EURO shows the same solution again on the 00z run, I'll start to get a little more excited.

However, I like the ensemble consensus, although, I'm not sure what it means. It will be fun to watch the forecasters tomorrow morning from the Southeast NWS offices. We'll see which ones are afraid to get burned and which ones really buy into the whole consistency thing. Birmingham has already updated their forecast discussion tonight referring to the flip-flop of the NAM and GFS. I think this whole situation is delicate and that the forecasters are even more hesitant than ever considering this could fall on Christmas.

[Jag95]

And just when they decide to go bullish...

NWS Birmingham 10:30 pm discussion...
WATCHING THE NEWER AND MUCH DIFFERENT AND WARMER MODEL RUNS COME IN
FOR SATURDAY. CERTAINLY WAS A INTERESTING CHANGE TO SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH A FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS. THIS WOULD STILL INCLUDE SNOW...BUT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. SHOULD PROVE TO BE AN INTERESTING CHALLENGE FOR
THE MIDNIGHT CREW FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS WILL NOT BE AN EASY
FORECAST BY ANY STRETCH.

[Ntxw]

From the plymouth site, looks like the Euro finally buckled, doesn't show a historic storm. Not a good sign tonight.

Euro/GFS/NAM/Canadian all do not phase in time based on tonight's consensus.