Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[bella_may]

Yep hopefully it'll be let it snow let it snow let it snow not let it rain let it rain let it rain like it was last year

[Jag95]

Remember how the models vacillated when forecasting the 2004 Gulf Coast Christmas snow? The same may be occurning with this system. Remember, the trend is your friend. Would be nice to see the low take shape a bit futher west and become deeper just south of Mobile, drawing down the cold air to meet the moisture. Most is not all snow events along the Gulf Coast were not forecast, lets hope that trend continues.......MGC

Oh yeah, I remember that. I was reading about the snow covering the ground over in Louisiana and just knew it couldn't miss us. It did. A couple of flakes and that was it for us. I think the last time snow covered the ground in Mobile was back in the '90s. My sister in northern Baldwin County got about 3 inches last year, but it's been a looong time for Mobile.

[Ivanhater]

Japanese model phases

[hurricanedude]

LMAO IH your really reaching.........
anyway gfs gives south east virginia a nice 4 to 8 inches

[Ivanhater]

LMAO IH your really reaching.........
anyway gfs gives south east virginia a nice 4 to 8 inches

Gotta grasp on to something!

The trend tonight is fantastic...a big turn around from last night. The Euro in a few minutes will probably dash hopes again but that is part of living in the South for snow lovers

[hurricanedude]

well.....i dont think euro will be to far off gfs.....the 00z models have all the info in there...

[hurricanedude]

euro had 3 feet and hurricane winds here yesterday, hmmmm lol

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro is similar to the 00z GFS...a little better. Didn't quite phase but very close.

There is the low and the cold air

[NDG]

Lol, the euro got us all fooled once again. That model has been slipping lately.

[Tstormwatcher]

00z GFS snowfall map....see how much of an improvement. If it keeps trending the way it is, it could be game on

I like this forecast. It puts 3"-6" in my area.

[GTStorm]

yet another typical Savannah forecast. Just enough to keep the interest level but in the end just the same ol' same ol.

[Brent]

I'll take it.

[Ivanhater]

GFS ensemble is better!

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1055 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO TODAYS FORECAST. ENJOY THE SUNSHINE AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AS THE WEATHER WILL GO DOWN
HILL AFTER MIDNIGHT. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NO WEATHER PROBLEMS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS COMING IN WETTER AND
COLDER FOR SATURDAY...BUT THE SAVING GRACE MAY BE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES NORTH OF
I-20 WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...BUT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 1000-2000 FEET AGL SHOULD HELP MELT THE
SNOW BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING.

STAY TUNED.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah, and then we get THIS


INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC
QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN
BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY
RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC
PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH
THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME
MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH ALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.
THIS APPROACH DISREGARDS THE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER AND WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z NAM WHICH LIES
NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW.

[Ivanhater]

Yep...This darn thing is so close to phasing with the trend in the models, we won't know till it is happening...

bust out the radars tonight and the morning in between dealing with Santa and presents!

[Ivanhater]

Here it comes

[Jag95]

I was thinking the same thing when I was looking at the GFS, Ivan. When the low entered the Gulf south of LA, it looked so close to phasing, only to have the trough grab it at the last second. It'll be close.

[Ivanhater]

I was thinking the same thing when I was looking at the GFS, Ivan. When the low entered the Gulf south of LA, it looked so close to phasing, only to have the trough grab it at the last second. It'll be close.

NWS Mobile/Pensacola even mentioned this in the discussion to be safe..it really is close

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES PHASE SOONER
THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...WHICH IN TURN WOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW.

[northjaxpro]

I still am inclined to think that the phasing will take place as the Low moves over the Northern FL peninsula by late Christmas evening. I think the Euro runs earlier up through the mid week will come to fruition and we may be dealing with a "bomb" moving up along the East Coast on Sunday into Monday afterall!