Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

[SunnyThoughts]

Whether we get a flake here on the gulf coast or not, this has got to be in the top 10 of storms I've tracked in my lifetime. Im just thrilled for the folks north of here..and along the east coast if things end up as all the models have trended towards this afternoon and tonight. Just an amazing roller coaster of a ride! Here's to hoping we get a flake or 2...or 4 Merry Christmas everybody! Good luck Brent...hope you get lots of white stuff!

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

Wow everything is back to the way it was!

[Lane]

I really hope that is what we get! Wow what a gift from Santa that would be. Hope everyone has a safe and Merry Christmas. I will be up checking in time to time thru the night.

[Ntxw]

Tonight's runs have been much better than previously I must say.

0z GFS

[Lane]

[Lane]

Brent, do you think we have a shot at seeing any snow stick?

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

GAZ087-088-SCZ040-042>045-251700-
/O.NEW.KCHS.WS.A.0002.101226T0800Z-101227T0500Z/
JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-
INLAND BERKELEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLEN...SYLVANIA...ALLENDALE...
HAMPTON...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER
403 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE
TONIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATION: 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON
GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ALTHOUGH ROAD SURFACES ARE FAIRLY
WARM...SNOW COULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS AND BRIDGES IF
SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A SMALL DEVIATION IN ITS TRACK COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
CHARLESTON.

&&

$$

JRL

[Brent]

Brent, do you think we have a shot at seeing any snow stick?

Yes, but not til late afternoon or evening. It might even be after dark tomorrow. I do think we could see enough to cover the ground though(I'm pulling for an inch) by Sun Morning. I think during the day today it will be mostly rain or a rain/snow mix that doesn't stick, but this is a very tough forecast. I'm expecting a lot of wraparound snow showers Sat Night/Sun Morn though, that could produce more accumulation for us than anything.

Boy it is going to be close, check this out, probability of 4 inches:

[Lane]

I don't see the image.

[Brent]

I don't see the image.

Hmmmm, weird. Anyway it has a probability of 4 inches in North GA all the way to the AL line around where Gadsden is.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
438 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 1 AM
EST SUNDAY...

.THE COMBINATION OF TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL SUPPLY AMPLE
MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PRODUCING SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

GAZ025-027-031>039-041>055-057-251745-
/O.EXB.KFFC.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-101226T1800Z/
JACKSON-MADISON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-
OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-
DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-
COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...
ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR...
CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY
438 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NORTH GEORGIA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTHWARD...WHICH NOW INCLUDES METRO ATLANTA
AND THE ATHENS AREA. THE ADVISORY IS NOW ALONG AND NORTH OF A
NEWNAN TO MADISON TO WASHINGTON LINE... DUE TO THE THREAT OF LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. THE ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY.

TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL USHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE STATE
ON TODAY...AND WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW THIS MORNING... THEN A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALL SNOW AGAIN IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WARP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
EAST.

THE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROME TO
GAINESVILLE LINE WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLY FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

FOR METRO ATLANTA AND ATHENS...AND THEIR SURROUNDING AREAS... SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY... THEN POSSIBLY 1 TO 2
INCHES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

REMEMBER...ICY ROADS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

&&

$$

[Lane]

Also, the cold air is about here. The NWS says it is 32 in my area, I show 34. Was recently at 36 for a good bit. If the temps are where they are now, and supposed to drop during the day. With the cloud cover in place, will it get that warm today.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INTERACT
WITH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004>010-252100-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WW.Y.0032.101225T1400Z-101226T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0017.101225T1700Z-101226T1700Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON
437 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THEN
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND NOON. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
CARNESVILLE TO ANDERSON AND LAURENS MAY NOT CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN
THESE AREAS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...ONCE THE SNOW INCREASES IN INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ROADS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SLICK AND DANGEROUS...
ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HEAVY SNOW MAY ALSO BRING
DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S...FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
ONCE SNOW STARTS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE SURE TO TAKE ALONG YOUR CELL
PHONE. WEAR A WARM COAT...GLOVES...AND BOOTS. KEEP A BLANKET...
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

[Brent]

Also, the cold air is about here. The NWS says it is 32 in my area, I show 34. Was recently at 36 for a good bit. If the temps are where they are now, and supposed to drop during the day. With the cloud cover in place, will it get that warm today.

The system has a little warm air on the frontside, but I still don't see us getting out of the 30's. The biggest question mark to me is during the day today. I REALLY have no clue. We could be a winter wonderland by afternoon or it may not accumulate til after dark.

[Brent]

Looks a little better for you Lane and I'm in the 1 inch zone:

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
406 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...

.THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BEGINNING MAINLY AS SLEET AND LIGHT RAIN AND QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE HEAVIER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE MID MORNING...AND THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL HELP TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ALZ001>008-016-251800-
/O.EXA.KHUN.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-101226T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-CULLMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...CULLMAN
406 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS
CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING NORTH ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK. HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS ABOVE 1250 FEET WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT. WHILE THIS INITIAL BAND WILL MOVE OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OVER ONE INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* IMPACTS: MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS THAT DROP BELOW
FREEZING BRIEFLY THIS MORNING MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY ICING OR A
LIGHT GLAZE ON ROADWAYS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AROUND SUNSET
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES...MAY CAUSE MINOR TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

[northjaxpro]

HO! HO! HO!

Merry Christmas everyone! Well, it looks now that phasing is going to occur as the storm emerges just off the NE FL / SE GA coast by early tomorrow morning. This is going to bring accumulating snow as far south into the interior portions of the Low country of Southern SC, and even light snow into Charleston and flurries to Savannah.

This is setting up to be a memorable winter storm for mainly the Carolinas northward up the Eastern seaboard. The models are seemingly jumping back for the storm to bomb out tracking relatively closer to the coastline.

[GTStorm]

HO! HO! HO!

Merry Christmas everyone! Well, it looks now that phasing is going to occur as the storm emerges just off the NE FL / SE GA coast by early tomorrow morning. This is going to bring accumulating snow as far south into the interior portions of the Low country of Southern SC, and even light snow into Charleston and flurries to Savannah.

This is setting up to be a memorable winter storm for mainly the Carolinas northward up the Eastern seaboard. The models are seemingly jumping back for the storm to bomb out tracking relatively closer to the coastline.

wow....As was posted earlier by someone, this has been a fun one to watch, regardless of the results. looks like the precip is on the way, right now it is sunny, cold, beautiful outside here.

[timNms]

Well, it's cold here in South Miss We've had some sleet mixing in with the rain in the last 30 mins or so. Looking at the radar, it appears it's about to come to an end, though. I say "Bring on the sun and some 70's