SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[wxman57]

It's not every day you see single digit dewpoints around here! We busted big time on the hard freeze last night (only hit 30) but 23-25 looks attainable for tonight. We will see.

Fair

45 °F
(7 °C)
Humidity: 21 %
Wind Speed: NW 10 MPH
Barometer: 30.25" (1024.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 7 °F (-14 °C)
Wind Chill: 40 °F (4 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 m

Too much wind in the lower levels for good radiative cooling last night.

[MGC]

I'm hopeing the wind stays up again tonight.....MGC

[vbhoutex]

Temp is now 35.6f here at the house which is basically the low of 35f progged for our area. I am surprised because our return flow from the S began earlier this evening from what I was observing. Apparently there isn't much vertical mixing going on yet. After what I think was the return flow started I didn't expect the temps to drop much but they have managed 10 degrees more so far. It'll be interesting to see what it is when I wake up.

added Tuesday morning: 34.6f was as low as it got last night.

[PTrackerLA]

Another bust on temps last night. Forecast low was 23/24 and we only reached 28. Not sure why as dewpoints were in the teens overnight with calm winds. May be a while before we freeze again.

[MGC]

Wind stayed up all night, we reached 26 at Gulfport airport. Winds have shifted to the south this afternoon and with it rising DP. NWS calling for another cold night tonight with a low near 26. Bring back the warmth.....MGC

[pwrdog]

Looking at my records for last year, a pretty cold weather season here in SE Texas, we had 8 freezes in the Nov 1st -Dec 19th time frame.. And 1 snow storm..

2010 Nov 1st to Dec 19th is at 18 freezes.. Only 76/77 can compare so far..

Not what I expected from a La Nina...

Jan 2010 was very cold... 18 freezes out of 31 days.... I don't expect 2011 will beat that..
Feb 2010 was almost as cold with 16 freezes..

I saw snow 7 different days last cold weather season... No doubt the most I've seen in my 40 plus years here in SE Texas..

And snow for 5 consecutive years.... 3 of those over 2 inches... That's the most consecutive years I can recall as well..

What a great tend... Reminds me of the early 70's.. Will the SE Texas snowbelt trend continue...??? I think so eventhough the La Nina has us in a drought..

We need rain bad.... But snow will do just fine..

[vbhoutex]

Wow! Thanks for those statistics. It will be interesting to watch. I know here at the house we have had about the same amount of freezes as last year if not more, but they have been colder except for one. So far, rather typical La Nina with early cold. Question is will January follow with unusual warmth?

[vbhoutex]

OK!!! Who stole winter? Record breaking high of 82f predicted for tomorrow!!

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like the cockroach clouds rolled in. So, no total eclipse for viewing. I have been awaiting it for years. I need cans of RAID to kill off the clouds so I can see the eclipse.

[Jagno]

OK!!! Who stole winter? Record breaking high of 82f predicted for tomorrow!!

Yes, I was thinking that the thread title "Winter temps have returned" might need a little tweaking myself. Of course by just leaving it up................................I'm sure it will be valid in another day or so as this roller coaster continues.

I too was looking so forward to the eclipse. Not only do we have the heavy cloud cover but dense fog as well.

[vbhoutex]

OK!!! Who stole winter? Record breaking high of 82f predicted for tomorrow!!

Yes, I was thinking that the thread title "Winter temps have returned" might need a little tweaking myself. Of course by just leaving it up................................I'm sure it will be valid in another day or so as this roller coaster continues.

I too was looking so forward to the eclipse. Not only do we have the heavy cloud cover but dense fog as well.

There are a few breaks between the clouds so we might get a glimpse or two, but certainly not the ideal viewing conditions one would like. That really sucks that you have heavy clouds and fog.
I did think about changing the title, but in some ways it is correct for SE TX/SW LA since we do often have this damn roller coaster weather.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

On this the first day on winter, the state will experience near record or record highs in many places.

Zonal flow aloft is helping to keep lower pressures anchored along the front range of the Rockies producing southerly flow across the state. Surface dewpoints have risen into the mid and upper 60’s on SSW winds over the last 24 hours. Dewpoints are running 5-8 degrees warmer than the nearshore water temperatures. Coastal webcams and station observations have yet to show significant sea fog formation as this warm marine air mass spreads across the colder shelf waters. Current thinking is that even with significantly warmer dewpoints over the colder waters, south/south-southwest wind direction is limiting the amount of time of the warm air over the narrow cold water. Additionally wind speeds have been averaging 10-15mph along the coast and this may also be helping in the prevention of dense sea fog.

Winds will weaken this evening and veer toward the SW which will allow a longer fetch moist layer across the length of the nearshore cold waters. Expect that very moist dewpoint air mass will chill to saturation over the cold water and dense sea fog will form right along the coast and the inland bays. Wind direction should keep the fog bank anchored near the coast early and then spreading inland after midnight. Given the large SST/dewpoint spread some very dense fog is possible with visibilities less than ¼ of a mile to near zero right along the coast creating hazardous travel for sea vessels. Not sure how far inland the fog will spread, but locations south of I-10 could be in the soup. Will be hard to break out along the coast with little change in the air mass until Friday. Expect periods of very dense sea fog to spread inland throughout the period.



Other item of interest will be the high temperatures today with records of 81 at IAH possibly being reached or even exceeded if enough breaks in the cloud cover develops. Records for the rest of the week appear out of reach, but it will remain warm and moist until Friday on southerly winds.



Zonal upper air pattern responsible for the warm weather pattern will undergo significant amplification over the western US late this week. Cold air awaiting the right upper air delivery pattern is in place over NW Canada. Polar jet stream will buckle as a large ridge builds over the western US allowing the dislodging of a NW Canada air mass. Strong polar cold front will blast southward down the plains behind a strong upper level storm system over the plains on Friday. Polar air mass will reach TX late Thursday evening and plow across the state on Friday. Significant temperature falls of 10-25 degrees will accompany the front on strong NW winds. NAM model has come in wetter for Friday along with a slightly better chance of rain on the GFS also. Do not feel comfortable going more than 30%, given the stout capping in place and best dynamics passing across N TX, but this would be our first shot at rain since the day after Thanksgiving….we will take whatever we can get at this point.

Cold and dry air mass builds into the region Friday night ending of warm streak. Christmas Day will be clear and cold as polar high pressure builds down the plains. Expect highs in the lower 50’s under NNE winds. Saturday night will be the coldest night with sub-freezing temperatures for most locations and possible mid 20’s across our northern counties. Cold dome will be slow to move eastward unlike the last several cold snap which have lasted 1-2 days. Amplified pattern looks to remain locked in place into early next week keeping the cold air in place into next week. At the surface low pressure is progged to develop out of a western Gulf of Mexico coastal trough come Monday/Tuesday allowing Gulf moist to glide up and over the surface cold dome. It appears rain chances will be on the increase with temperatures holding in the 40’s and 50’s for highs early to mid next week. Not ready to bite yet on the rain potential given the ongoing drought, but it appears this could be our first decent shot at rainfall since early November.

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 212120
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2010

...RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL COME TO AN END...

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR WE HAVE HAD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT BOTH KCLL
AND KIAH ASSUMING TEMPERATURES DO NOT FALL BELOW 58 AND 67
DEGREES RESPECTIVELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN BROKEN OR TIED AT KCLL KIAH AND KHOU. IT LOOKS LIKE
WITH THE SW WINDS...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
80S ACROSS SE TX.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE RED
RIVER. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND FORECAST MODELS SLOWLY
BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SE TX DURING THE DAY WED. SUSPECT
THAT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS THAT LIMIT MIXING WILL ONLY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. THE FRONT MAKES A BIT MORE OF A
BACK DOOR PUSH ON THURSDAY SO I HAVE HEDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. AGAIN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY. ALSO WITH E/SE WINDS...MAY HAVE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE HELD AT 10 PERCENT WITH DRIZZLE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOG. WINDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WHICH MAY HELP WITH
SOME RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME SEA FOG ALONG
GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE BAY. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF FOG WILL BE
TRICKY BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SOME FOG TO LIMIT VIS BY
WED MORNING.

THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE A TROUBLE SPOT IN
THE FORECAST. SEEMS THAT THE GFS/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE NAM HAVE
STARTED A TREND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. NAMELY A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE CALI COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE S
ROCKIES THU AND INTO THE S PLAINS FRI. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN THE
LONE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE LOW OVER N TX BY 00Z SAT. THE
OTHER MODELS ARE STILL FASTER...BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT
OF THIS TROUGH. AS SUCH...COLD FRONT WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES. THIS MEANS THE FROPA WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z FRI
AND 00Z SAT WITH IT PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY 06Z SAT. THIS TIMING
IS ABOUT 6-12HRS SLOWER THAN THE FORECAST SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THIS NEW FRONTAL TIMING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS BASED ON A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
AND THE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST PASSING SO NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INSTEAD OF 20 ABOVE NORMAL LIKE
TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BOTH SUN AND MON MORNINGS COULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE MAY ACTUALLY BE MON WITH NEAR CALM WINDS.
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP MON NIGHT AND TUE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

The cockroach cap is depriving us of much needed rain and made us warm and deprived us the total lunar eclipse.

They ought to make RAID that kills La Nina and capping inversion.

[Ntxw]

I feel your pain. Was hoping to see that lunar eclipse last night but that didn't happen. I'm never a big fan of record highs, especially in winter. We're paying dearly for the fantastic year that was last. Everything comes with a balance. Perhaps next year, at least it's not a blowtorch yet which we would expect in a moderate to strong La Nada which in itself could be hinting at a colder period as a whole for long term cycles. You know it's not a good winter when Houston doesn't see it's earliest snowfall on record

[jasons2k]

Latest from Jeff:

Several changes needed this morning…

Sea fog has developed and has socked in the coastal locations from Galveston to Corpus Christi. Visibilities are running in the 1/8 of a mile to 1/2 of a mile mainly along the coast and about 20 miles inland. Cold front currently just north of College Station is making decent southward progress, and latest model guidance now brings this front deep into SE TX today and tonight (change 1). Air mass north of this boundary over N TX is in the 30’s/40’s so there is some fairly cold air lurking just to the north. Highs will need to be lowered across our northern counties for this afternoon and tonight and across most of the area for Thursday (60’s instead of the 70’s, change 2). Not sure how far south the front will actually make it before it pulls up stationary, but it could ooze south of I-10 tonight. Clouds/drizzle/fog will be likely both ahead of the front and behind the boundary as a moist air mass resides across the area. If the front does make it to the coast, then sea fog issues could abate some, but I am not confident the front will make it that far south and the coastal locations could stay locked in the sea fog bank through Friday.

Next item is the strong upper level storm system headed for the region on Christmas Eve. 00Z model guidance has come in significantly stronger, wetter, and slower with this event. Track of mid/upper level low pressure system Friday afternoon/night places SE TX in a favorable position for strong dynamical lift along and ahead of the SE moving cold front. Appears enough moisture will be in place for the development of widespread showers/thunderstorms Friday afternoon/night ahead of this feature (change 3). Air mass does appear to become unstable enough to support a chance of thunderstorms Friday night. Rain chances will need a boost into the 40-60% range with the highest chances N of HWY 105. Widespread rainfall amounts of .25 to 1.25 inches will be possible with highest amounts up north and lowest amounts toward the coast/Matagorda Bay.

Strong cold front will blast through the area Friday night and Saturday morning with strong cold air advection developing in its wake. Temperatures will fall a good 20-25 degrees post front. GFS guidance shows a high of 53 on Saturday, but the GFS has also been wanting to hang on to a low level stratus deck behind the departing upper level storm system. Given the slower solutions that have developed in the last 24 hours, low clouds may linger well into Saturday and this will result in temperatures possibly holding in the 40’s much of the day…if clouds clear out quickly highs will be in the low to mid 50’s (change 4). Cold polar high settles over the region Saturday night with clearing skies and light winds freezing temperatures are expected. Area will remain cold into next week with another freeze Monday morning and then another surge of cold air from the north on late Monday. Do not expect highs to reach 60 again until maybe Wednesday of next week after Friday.

With cold dome in place next week, short wave will enter northern MX and move eastward inducing coastal troughing along the lower TX coast. Isentropic lift will begin to generate clouds late Monday as a moist air mass is shoved up and over the surface cold dome in response to the approaching system over N MX. Expect increasing clouds and then rain to develop on Tuesday as the upglide pattern becomes established and upper level dynamics come into play. A little early to define rain chances and amounts, but at least we have a couple of shots over the next week at some decent rainfall.

Nor’Easter: Potential appears to be growing for some kind of winter storm up the US east coast this weekend. Models have been bouncing around with potential intensities and track of a major low pressure system that develops near the Mid Atlantic and then moves up the NE US coast. Potential is there for a major weather event impacting much of the US east coast after Christmas with very strong winds and heavy snows. If some of the latest models verify a major nor’easter with significant impacts will be possible the 2 days after Christmas creating very hazardous travel conditions both on the ground and in the air. In fact if the position of the “bombing” surface low is correct and its movement correct, snow will be measured in feet at many of the major cities in the northeast.

Note: Record high temperatures were tied or broken at College Station, IAH, and Hobby yesterday. The high of 82 at IAH broke the record of 81 in 1970 and was 18 degrees above normal. The high of 84 at College Station smashed the record of 79 from 1970 and was 22 degrees above normal.

[jasons2k]

Interesting - if you look very closely, you can see the sea breeze moving inland ahead of the front, near Texas City. This is very unusual for December but if you think about it - cool shelf waters + warmer temps inland...well, that activates the sea breeze.

[djmikey]

Well, I sure see a lot of excitement about the possible snow in the south...too bad it won't be here in TX.
I do see the rising percentages of rain come Fri/Sat though. Oh how we need it really bad in SETX. All of TX really! Atleast this is something to be excited over rather than the boring days we've had in the last month! This roller coaster ride in temps too is getting old. Maybe we can hold on to this upcoming "cold" snap for awhile. Dec. 22 and I'm out in shorts and flip flops. ha!

[vbhoutex]

Santa was good to SE TX. We got a good 1" or so soaking last night. Doesn't look like we will make it out of the low 40's today and with the winds running 20-30 mph it is quite uncomfortable outside. At least we aren't having one of our 85f Christmases!

[CajunMama]

You know your winter sucks when jacksonville, fl is getting snow and you're not.

[vbhoutex]

Yep CM. My Mom is here and D4S was watching flurries where she lives in FL. Oh well. We had a hard freeze last night with a low of 24.3f here at the house. Below freezing for at least 8 hours last night. Supposed to be even colder tonight with the high right on top of us. We never got out of the low 40's yesterday with the cloud cover we had and then the winds dropped and the clouds cleared last night for almost perfect radiational cooling.