How possible are these scenarios?

[neospaceblue]

I was thinking about certain scenarios that a tropical cyclone could go through and I was wondering how possible they were, such as:

1. A storm existing in the Atlantic, EPAC, CPAC, WPAC and North Indian Ocean - since there have been storms that have crossed from Atlantic to East Pacific (Joan-Miriam in 1988, Cesar-Douglas in 1996), East Pacific/Central Pacific to West Pacific (John in 1994, Ioke in 2006) and West Pacific to North Indian (Gay in 1989, Vamei in 2001), I figured it would be possible for one to exist in all five basins.
2. A hurricane striking the Delmarva Peninsula - We've had three tropical storms, so I wondered if a minimal hurricane could strike us.
3. A Category 5 striking north of Florida. (I heard that Hugo had some damage that might have supported Category 5 intensity at South Carolina, so I just made me think.
4. A Category 4 striking Canada. - Ella in 1978 and Debby in 1982 were Category 4 and pretty close to Canada.

[Hurricanehink]

I think the first one is wholly impossible. Any Atlantic to EPAC crosser never made it further west than 130W (Cesar-Douglas), and that one was at 22.5 N at that time. While it's true that some have gone from EPAC to WPAC, those that did didn't make it very far into the basin. Li 94 formed on the edge of EPAC/CPAC, and made it to 168.8 E. Even any WPAC to NIO crossers had their share of trouble. Most of them formed in the South China Sea (or Gulf of Thailand), and thus were close enough to be able to cross. Considering how big the gaps are (no Atlantic one made it to CPAC, no EPAC made it far enough into WPAC, and no WPAC formed east of the Philippines, AFAIK), I really don't think it's possible.

The second one is much more plausible. At least two tropical cyclones produced hurricane force winds in the state (the Gale of 1878 and the New Jersey hurricane of 1903). The major problem is the track. As one can see, the Delmarva landfalls are few and far between, and the ones that hit were usually subtropical in origin (Bret 81 started as SS, Dean 83 started as SD, Danielle 92 originated from a cold front). Such cold origins aren't quite so favorable for intensifying to hurricane status, although that does allow for an unusual track. Longer, Cape Verde hurricanes are usually moving much faster by the time they reach that area, and they would have to be moving northwest to hit the state. That alone is rather unusual, since most are moving northeast by that latitude. Another big problem is that Delaware only has 20 miles of coastline, which is a rather small area to hit. It's not likely, and it would take unusual conditions, but I think it is possible.

The third one actually might have happened. Per http://mailer.fsu.edu/~jelsner/HHITProject/HHITStormList.txt - they assessed the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane as hitting North Carolina/Virginia region as a Category 4/5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane - here's a link to the Wikipedia article.

As for the last one, I don't think that's possible at all. I think Ella's intensity will be lowered in re-analysis, and Debby was much, much farther south as a C4. I really don't think it's possible to have a Category 4 at over 43 degrees north. A C3 is much more possible, but even that seems unlikely. The most recent far-north major hurricane was Alex 04, which reached C3 status at 38N, the furthest north after Ellen 73. Alex was moving east-northeastward along the Gulf Stream when it was at major status, but the Gulf Stream doesn't go that close to Canada. Even Juan 03, which was a C2 and had the benefit of warm waters all the way to Nova Scotia, couldn't reach C3 status.

In short, I think the third one has happened, and is the most likely to happen again. Both the second and the fourth are very unlikely, but I think the second is slightly more plausible to happen, given its minimum requirements. I honestly think the first one is impossible, ever. The entire track would be around 20,000 miles, which would be almost three times as long as John 94 (the current longest-tracked cyclone). It would require some impossible ridge to keep it due west across the entire Pacific without it gaining any latitude. The Thai peninsula (where WPAC crosses to NIO) is from 5N to 12N, and the furthest south a hurricane crossed from the Atlantic to EPAC was 12N. I really don't think it's possible.

[Cyclenall]

I was thinking about certain scenarios that a tropical cyclone could go through and I was wondering how possible they were, such as:

1. A storm existing in the Atlantic, EPAC, CPAC, WPAC and North Indian Ocean - since there have been storms that have crossed from Atlantic to East Pacific (Joan-Miriam in 1988, Cesar-Douglas in 1996), East Pacific/Central Pacific to West Pacific (John in 1994, Ioke in 2006) and West Pacific to North Indian (Gay in 1989, Vamei in 2001), I figured it would be possible for one to exist in all five basins.

This was actually talked about three times that I can recall in total on these forums in the past and twice during this summer in one thread. I forgot the thread name but I posted this idea and then minutes later someone else posted nearly the same thing. I have to disagree with Hurricanehink on this because although the chances of something so ridiculous happening is extremely close to 0%, I think within the time span of the Earth's history it could happen maybe once in my estimation. This is just a guess but if I were to guess the frequency it would be that. I posted a lot more detail on it in another thread so maybe I will find it.

I think the first one is wholly impossible. Any Atlantic to EPAC crosser never made it further west than 130W (Cesar-Douglas), and that one was at 22.5 N at that time. While it's true that some have gone from EPAC to WPAC, those that did didn't make it very far into the basin. Li 94 formed on the edge of EPAC/CPAC, and made it to 168.8 E. Even any WPAC to NIO crossers had their share of trouble. Most of them formed in the South China Sea (or Gulf of Thailand), and thus were close enough to be able to cross. Considering how big the gaps are (no Atlantic one made it to CPAC, no EPAC made it far enough into WPAC, and no WPAC formed east of the Philippines, AFAIK), I really don't think it's possible.

...

I honestly think the first one is impossible, ever. The entire track would be around 20,000 miles, which would be almost three times as long as John 94 (the current longest-tracked cyclone). It would require some impossible ridge to keep it due west across the entire Pacific without it gaining any latitude. The Thai peninsula (where WPAC crosses to NIO) is from 5N to 12N, and the furthest south a hurricane crossed from the Atlantic to EPAC was 12N. I really don't think it's possible.

You say it's impossible based on past climatology and the difficultly of tropical cyclones crossing basins, however if it's possible within the realms of physics and science I don't think wholly impossible is the best answer. If you look at a timescale long enough nearly anything becomes possible so that is the main bases for my assumption. The pattern set-up would be one of the greatest strikes of luck ever with the TC staying at an extremely low latitude for massive lengths with some gain later on during it's trek. The ridge would have to be very powerful in each basin, and I would imagine the storm being very powerful itself. Never say never in the tropics .

[Aslkahuna]

Typhoon Sarah, which formed in EPAC in 1967 transitted the Central Pacific south of HI and passed over Wake Island at maximum intensity of 125kt and eventually recurved at 149E longitude. Total track length was 4499 nm which is 5174 statute miles. As far as storms tracking from WPAC into the NIO would suggest reviewing the ATCR best tracks available from 1959 to the present on the JTWC site.

Steve