Texas Winter 2010-2011

[srainhoutx]

I'd keep an eye out just after the New Year Holiday Weekend. There are some strong signals of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event ahead near the first week of January. Add to that the tropical forcing from the Central Pacific, +PNA, -NAO, slightly -AO, -EPO and viola.

[Ntxw]

:( no fun! Here's to hope the Euro provides some optimism!

You mean that .50-1.00 of rainfall progged for DFW doesn't excite you?!

Like you, I hope the lunch-hour Euro run gives us some reason for winter hope.

Well it's not that I don't want the rain, the New Year's storm has a possibility of dry slotting North, parts of Central, and West Texas if it has too much of a northern track which is no fun! Just a dry cold. The midweek system does look wet.



A bit of a shift east by the systems and it will be just dreary, drizzly, and cloudy, thin line. I'm happy for SE Texas though! Likely to be very wet there.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I'd keep an eye out just after the New Year Holiday Weekend. There are some strong signals of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event ahead near the first week of January. Add to that the tropical forcing from the Central Pacific, +PNA, -NAO, slightly -AO, -EPO and viola.

What does this mean for uswho live on the Earth's suface and not in the Stratosphere???? In particular, the Great State of Texas????

[Ntxw]

I'd keep an eye out just after the New Year Holiday Weekend. There are some strong signals of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event ahead near the first week of January. Add to that the tropical forcing from the Central Pacific, +PNA, -NAO, slightly -AO, -EPO and viola.

What does this mean for uswho live on the Earth's suface and not in the Stratosphere???? In particular, the Great State of Texas????

SSW has a tendency to lower heights and cause cold to pool (some huge winter outbreaks can be resulted of this) on the surface I'm guessing, I don't have extensive knowledge on such phenomena. The other stuff is a good alignment for a stormy pattern here in Texas. The +PNA is the most important imo because it shoots heights into the northeast pacific/west coast ridge which as a balancing result digs a huge trough in the middle of the country = no blowtorch.

If everything aligns perfectly = Sneaux!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I'd keep an eye out just after the New Year Holiday Weekend. There are some strong signals of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event ahead near the first week of January. Add to that the tropical forcing from the Central Pacific, +PNA, -NAO, slightly -AO, -EPO and viola.

What does this mean for uswho live on the Earth's suface and not in the Stratosphere???? In particular, the Great State of Texas????

SSW has a tendency to lower heights and cause cold to pool (some huge winter outbreaks can be resulted of this) on the surface I'm guessing, I don't have extensive knowledge on such phenomena. The other stuff is a good alignment for a stormy pattern here in Texas. The +PNA is the most important imo because it shoots heights into the northeast pacific/west coast ridge which as a balancing result digs a huge trough in the middle of the country = no blowtorch.

If everything aligns perfectly = Sneaux!

I fugured it was something like that! Thanks! Bring on the cold!

[Ntxw]

Still signs of life from the GFS ensembles. Some members have a storm still in Oklahoma/Texas vs the GFS in southern Canada for the same time frame. That is a huge span, which means there is clearly not a sensible solution yet.

12z Euro = cold and dry, cloudy in North Texas. Not much rain/snow/blizzard/flizzard,virga snow or anything of that sort new years day!

[srainhoutx]

I'd keep an eye out just after the New Year Holiday Weekend. There are some strong signals of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event ahead near the first week of January. Add to that the tropical forcing from the Central Pacific, +PNA, -NAO, slightly -AO, -EPO and viola.

What does this mean for uswho live on the Earth's suface and not in the Stratosphere???? In particular, the Great State of Texas????

SSW has a tendency to lower heights and cause cold to pool (some huge winter outbreaks can be resulted of this) on the surface I'm guessing, I don't have extensive knowledge on such phenomena. The other stuff is a good alignment for a stormy pattern here in Texas.

Good guess Ntxw. If you recall there was a big event last winter near the Christmas Holidays and we saw how that translated to several events in January including the coldest air of that season (El Nino). These events are not unusual, but the addition of all the other factors in a La Nina winter is far from ordinary, IMO. Infact if everything works out just right, we are headed into almost uncharted territory for a Mod/Strong La Nina pattern. It is truly amazing to watch all the pieces of the puzzle come together and strongly suggests that the MJO and blocking pattern is driving the events that we have seen since last week.

[Kelarie]

So y'all are saying it is time to bring out the popcorn, huh?

[WacoWx]

Pg 14 has been the most promising page so far in this thread. If it will only pan out!

[Ntxw]

Well the CPC sure is on board with the pattern change beyond new years.

[srainhoutx]

Well the CPC sure is on board with the pattern change beyond new years.

CPC just updated. Still has below normal temps, but has switched to below normal moisture except for Eastern TX.

CPC:

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 04 - 10 2011

DURING WEEK 2 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AS A TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN INDICATES THAT THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) INDEX WILL BECOME
HIGHLY NEGATIVE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE NEGATIVE NAO INDEX
IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING A LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT AND SOUTHERN GREENLAND.
THE OFFICIAL BLEND 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER 48
AND NEAR AVERAGE HEIGHTS ACROSS ALASKA.

PERSISTENT, BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE ODDS FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS
COMPARED TO DAYS 6-10 AND A NEGATIVE NAO INDEX FAVOR NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST THE EASTERN CONUS. DUE TO VARYING SIGNALS FROM THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS, THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG
THE WEST COAST.

A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALASKA WHERE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA
ALONG WITH THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.

[srainhoutx]

HPC says the GFS is probably too progressive regarding the New Years Weekend event...and caution is needed regarding the second low as there is still considerable spread in the ensembles...


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 30 2010 - 12Z MON JAN 03 2011

...SNOWSTORM MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU-SAT...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MS-TN RIVER VALLEYS/CENTRAL GULF COAST
SAT-SUN...

12Z GUIDANCE IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO OTHER RECENT GUIDANCE
CONCERNING THE LONGWAVE FLOW EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE CONUS IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF LOW
PROGRESSING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3-5...WHILE
AN INTENSE POLAR JET SPLITS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DUE TO
BLOCKED DOWNSTREAM FLOW AND PRODUCES A SMALLER BUT PERHAPS STILL
SIGNIFICANT CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST BY DAYS 5/6.

THE MAIN DIFFERENCES NOTICED WITH THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS FOR
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE CUT-OFF AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER PHASE
AGREEMENT WITH A 2ND SMALLER LOW NEARING CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE BLENDED ABOUT 25 PERCENT EACH OF THE 12Z
CANADIAN/UKMET WITH THE EARLY MORNING BLEND...WHICH CONSISTED OF
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...TO CONSTRUCT THE
FINAL PRESSURE/FRONT PROGS.

THE FINAL CHANGES WILL EMPHASIZE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY BEFORE ENTERING
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE... THE LARGE AND EXPANDED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT
ACCOMPANIES MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MUCH MILDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO SPREAD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAVY
RAIN LIKELY FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MS-TN RIVER
VALLEYS/GULF COAST SAT-SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...ASIDE FROM THE 12Z GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO LIE NEAR THE
FASTER EDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...OTHER GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW IMPROVED CLUSTERING
REGARDING ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND VERY CLOSE TO
THE CALIFORNIA COAST SAT-MON. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MUCH
LARGER...WHICH WARRANTS CAUTION IN RELYING TO0 MUCH ON ANY ONE
SOLUTION FOR SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM WHICH THE MODELS ARE LIKELY
HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING.

JAMES

[Portastorm]

I'll play devil's advocate for a moment ... what good does a second system do if there is no return moisture?

Other than rain tomorrow-Wed and possibly Fri-Sat, I still see nothing "wintry" happening for locales DFW and south for the next 7 days. And, btw, I'm happy with the rain. We desperately need it.

Yours curmudgeonly,
Portastorm

[Ntxw]

I'll play devil's advocate for a moment ... what good does a second system do if there is no return moisture?

Other than rain tomorrow-Wed and possibly Fri-Sat, I still see nothing "wintry" happening for locales DFW and south for the next 7 days. And, btw, I'm happy with the rain. We desperately need it.

Yours curmudgeonly,
Portastorm

I'll play the role of fool's hope.

There is no lock that the first system is dominant. If it remains weak in the upper midwest and sets up a boundary somewhere in the southern plains, the second feature has the chance at tapping into gulf moisture and really become a power as it trecks through TX via that boundary up to the Lakes. Kind of like when gulf lows take over in some winters and depletes the further north ULL. Houston snow miracles

[Ntxw]

Hmm, it's almost Tuesday and we still have a mess. NAM and GFS are very different somewhat. At 84 NAM still has the 500mb energy way back in the SW while the GFS has it in the central plains...talk about lows all over the place.

[iorange55]

It's time to start sucking up to Mother Nature.

[orangeblood]

This one is a mess. The GFS just looks odd to me...it appears to be having trouble handling all of the energy coming out of the Northwest. The DGEX (NAM model out to 192 hours) shows what the Canadian and European were hinting at a few days ago, which was a piece of energy hanging back and causing a decent snowstorm to breakout across the southern plains new years eve into new years day. The NWS needs to be careful with their forecast for the New Year holiday, this has bust potential written all over it.

[Ntxw]

For those wondering, this is what the DGEX mentioned by orangeblood shows 18z (only runs 6 and 18z's).

[Texas Snowman]

Don't remember the what the actual charts looked like, but the timing is reminiscent of the snowstorm on New Year's Eve 2000 when a nice snow event socked N. Texas, E. Texas, and the Ark/La/Tex with 2-4 inches of snow.

That was the event where it snowed before and during Texas A&M and Mississippi State's game in the Independence Bowl in Shreveport.

And the winter of 2000/2001 was a La Nina winter, no?

[orangeblood]

Don't remember the what the actual charts looked like, but the timing is reminiscent of the snowstorm on New Year's Eve 2000 when a nice snow event socked N. Texas, E. Texas, and the Ark/La/Tex with 2-4 inches of snow.

That was the event where it snowed before and during Texas A&M and Mississippi State's game in the Independence Bowl in Shreveport.

And the winter of 2000/2001 was a La Nina winter, no?

Yeah, I remember that one very well. It caught everyone by surprise, which most winter storms in Texas tend to do. I'm pretty sure that one was a completely different setup than the one we currently have: a weak shortwave moving through Texas along Northwest flow aloft vs. shortwave energy coming out of the Southwest.