WPAC: 98W INVEST (JTWC: POOR)

[Chacor]

Late-year invest, at 4.4°N 109.5°E in the South China Sea east of Malaysia/northeast of Singapore, just west of Borneo.

[Chacor]

JMA 00z:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 02N 107E WEST SLOWLY.

06z warning expected any time now.

[Chacor]

Certainly this INVEST explains some of the bad weather we've been having recently here...



POOR from JTWC:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 109.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 107.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST OF
BRUNEI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SHALLOW, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIN. A 271344Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK 10-15 KNOT CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THESE ARE SUPPORTED BY
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DUE TO THE WEAK LACK OF ORGANIZATION
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Where are you from Chacor?

[Chacor]

Singapore.

[Chacor]

Boat accident off the coast of Mersing, Malaysia, perhaps linked to the disturbance. 4 dead, 1 missing.

[RobWESTPACWX]

OO, I did not know that.....

about the winds in the area, does seem like it could be related, the winds look really high in the SCS.

[Chacor]

NRL, 12Z: 3.8N 104.5E (175 miles/280 km NNE of Singapore, or about 90 miles/150 km east of Kuantan, Malaysia)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Really Dissolved now, has been taken off of NRL Monterey.