Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[wx247]

Bring on the pineapple express!!!

[Ntxw]

Alright so tonight's 0z GFS doesn't show snow (panhandles maybe) for the southern plains BUT it is going towards the double low solution of the EC/Canadian which is a good start. Currently I am thinking the first low will dig a trough fairly south and the second from the SW (along with an SJT) should round about that trough. The timing of the GFS seems oddly still but is a work in progress. Someone in the central plains could get buried twice! Severe weather in the eastern half of the nation.

Srainhoutx mentions the Dodge City AFD's often because they tend to depict scenarios well, same case here.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS, AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN
MODEL, ALL NOW SEEM TO POINT TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION. THE ECMWF MODEL
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS THURSDAY-FRIDAY WAVE, TAKING IT
NORTHWEST OF US THURSDAY NIGHT AND BASICALLY DRY- SLOTTING OUR CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW 20 POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 15-18 PERCENT RANGE. THEN ON FRIDAY,
AS THE COLD AIR SINKS INTO OUR CWA, WILL KEEP 17-20 PERCENT POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN 1/3RD CWA, AND DROP TO SILENT 11 PERCENT
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A SOUTHERN LOBE UPPER WAVE
OVER NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY, AND BEINGS IT TO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
BY SUNDAY MORNING. DO INTRODUCED A FEW 20 PERCENT POPS IN FOR A BRUSHING
OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. IN EITHER CASE, THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY NORTHERN WAVE OR THE SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST WAVE, I
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION AT ALL, SINCE THE SOURCE OF LIFT IN
BOTH INSTANCES WILL BE DETACHED WELL AWAY FROM OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL DRAMATICALLY FROM THUR (52-61) TO FRI (23-43) AND THEN EVEN MORE
SAT (25-34)...A COLD START TO THE NEW YEAR.

Long term update: Lots of troughiness in our vicinity with a decent PNA. Storm after storm in the southwest well into January. Lack of GOA vortex!

[iorange55]

Yeah noticed the GFS developed something behind the initial surge, that's a good sign indeed. I really hope it all comes together this time.

[Ntxw]

Canadian = double low and snow for southern plains. Though I don't have access to the times between 108 to 120, looks like there's plenty of moisture being depicted slightly to our east so at some point in Tx it is creating a shield of precip.

update:sadly 0z ecmwf is no go to snow

There are still GFS ensemble members depicting a slower SW feature and bringing us a snowstorm.

[wx247]

Everybody ready to wear shorts and flip flops to ring in the New Year?

[srainhoutx]

Everybody ready to wear shorts and flip flops to ring in the New Year?

Enjoy your Spring thaw, Garret. I suspect it will be very short lived.

[wx247]

Everybody ready to wear shorts and flip flops to ring in the New Year?

Enjoy your Spring thaw, Garret. I suspect it will be very short lived.

I am going to hold you to that. The warmer weather does have me in a spring cleaning mood. Which cooresponds nicely with my vacation days.

[TwisterFanatic]

That was some unexpected heavy rain last night. Near 3.5 inches last night. Some area's south of here got 5+ inches.

[amawea]

It's been spitting sleet and snow here this a.m. A little dusting on the deck.

[TwisterFanatic]

It's been spitting sleet and snow here this a.m. A little dusting on the deck.

Got the same thing last night. Small band that went all the way across North Texas and Oklahoma

[wx247]

If these twisters were the pattern change you were referring to, you can keep it.

[Ntxw]

If these twisters were the pattern change you were referring to, you can keep it.

Hang in there, models are hinting at a monster ridge into Alaska in about a week or two. If not snow, it's going to get mighty cold for a brief period early to mid month in the southern plains! If the set up verifies, the coldest brunt of the brutal air will ride right down the front lines of the rockies.

[Texas Snowman]

The plot thickens concerning arctic air and possible wintry weather in about 7-10 days.

From OKC this morning:

WHILE ALL THIS TRANSPIRES... LARGE-SCALE CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE
ELSEWHERE THAT MAY MOVE THE PIECES INTO PLACE TO SET UP A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS NEXT SATURDAY. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER S GREENLAND
BUILD W ACROSS N CANADA WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES DO LIKEWISE FARTHER
S NEAR THE LATITUDE OF THE US-CANADA BORDER. LATTER LEADS TO AN
UPPER LOW ANCHORING OVER THE WA/BC AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND... AND
STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CONUS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE S CA COAST... IN THE S PART OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED W-COAST SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E
LATER IN THE WEEK BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MED-RANGE
MODELS. THE STRONGER WESTERLIES BY THEN MIGHT GIVE A NOD TO THE
FASTER ECMWF... IN WHICH CASE PRECIP WOULD ARRIVE HERE BY NEXT
SATURDAY. LOW POPS ARE THUS BEING INTRODUCED NEXT WEEKEND.

THEN THERE IS THE ARCTIC AIR. MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG
HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE AROUND 150-160W BY WEEKS END... WHICH IN TANDEM
WITH THE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER N CANADA WILL SUPPORT A BUILDUP
OF COLD AIR OVER W CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS AIR WILL
OOZE/TRICKLE S INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK... LEADING TO A COOLING TREND FRIDAY AND BEYOND. IF ENOUGH OF
IT BECOMES ESTABLISHED THIS FAR S... WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WINTER
PRECIP EVENT NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LATE-WEEK SYSTEM MOVES E ACROSS
TX/OK. MORE COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO MOVE S IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM... AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF IT TO TAP INTO BY THEN TO
OUR N.

NOTE THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE A 500-MB HIGH OF
AROUND 580HPA OVER ALASKA BY TUE 11 JAN. NOT A GOOD SIGN - NASTY
THINGS USUALLY HAPPEN IN TERMS OF COLD AND SNOW/ICE IN PATTERNS LIKE
THIS... NOT ONLY AROUND HERE BUT IN MANY PARTS OF THE LOWER 48. NEXT
WEEK MAY BE INTERESTING IN A NUMBER OF WAYS.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro is in agreement (the Canadian as well) regarding the vodka cold building in AK/Western Canada. There appears to be a truly cross polar flow setting up and the coldest air of the season looks to head S along the lee side of the Rockies...

Dodge City, KS:

NEXT WEEKEND THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE
INTERESTING AS BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE. AS A RESULT,
HAVE INCREASED SILENT POPS IN THE GRIDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
LOWERED TEMPERATURES WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM THAN COMPARED TO
THE GFS AND IT IS TOO SOON TO HAMMER OUT ALL THE DETAILS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE PROBABLY IS A FAIR TO GOOD CHANCE AT
SEEING SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
KANSAS.

JUST AS A SIDE NOTE, WEEK TWO LOOKS TO BE VERY INTERESTING ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING A 1055-1060 (!) HPA HIGH SLIDING
DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NORTHERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER (RELATIVELY SPEAKING - AROUND 1045 HPA) WITH THE HIGH AND THE
RESULTANT COLDER AIR SURGING DOWN THE PLAINS. ANYWAY, THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY GOOD SIGNALS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER
AND FRIGID TOWARDS THE SECOND WEEK OF JANUARY. RIGHT NOW I AM
HEDGING TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS SINCE MODELS USUALLY HAVE A HARD TIME
BRINGING DOWN THE COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WHEN IN REALITY THE ARCTIC
FRONT BEHAVES LIKE A DENSITY CURRENT AND GRAVITY TAKES OVER IN
BRINGING DOWN THE AIR MASS STRAIGHT SOUTH. THIS THINKING WAS CARRIED
TO THE GRIDS IN BRINGING DOWN TEMPS...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

[Texas Snowman]

I think some of the coldest air in a decade or more may be gathering steam. Vodka cold, as you called it.

Unless something changes from model leanings, I wouldn't be surprised to see some sub-zero readings in at least portions of Oklahoma.

[wx247]

Cross polar flow? I haven't heard that thrown around in a while. Good thing I got a heavy coat for Christmas!

I was down to 9º this morning. That is coldest temperature we've had so far this year!!!

[amawea]

Was very cold here on the Ar/Mo border this a.m. too wx247. Eleven degrees. We have had one morning colder at 9.7 degrees a few days ago. Where we live is down in kind of a hole between two ridges and it tends to get a few degrees colder than what the weather service predicts at night.

[somethingfunny]

From Fort Worth, and this follows my hunch as well:

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND FORECAST...HOWEVER IS STILL PRONE TO SOME
MAJOR CHANGES REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE MAIN PLAYERS. OF
INTEREST IS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT SHOULD HEAD
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL INTRODUCE SOME
POPS SATURDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES COMING SATURDAY NIGHT. VARIOUS
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP. GIVEN THE UPPER PATTERN
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET THE ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING AND THIS
HYPOTHESIS IS VERIFIED BY LATEST MODELS ALL SUGGESTING WARM 850MB
TEMPS OF 2-4C AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. OF COURSE IF THE UPPER
LOW IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SOME DYNAMIC COOLING
TO ALLOW FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPS OR SNOW POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE ENSEMBLE OR OPERATIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO NOW.
ANY WINTER PRECIP THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN.
THE KEY TO THIS POTENTIAL IS GOING TO BE THE POSITIONING OF THE
EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTROL JUST
HOW MUCH COLD/DRY AIR IS ABLE TO BLEED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. LATEST ECMWF IS
THE WEAKEST WITH THIS HIGH...HAS LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY WHEN THE PRECIP IS FALLING.
THE CANADIAN/UKMET HAS THE STRONGEST HIGH AND THUS COLDEST TEMPS.
THE GFS OFFERS THE COMPROMISE WITH MOST OF THE COLD AIR REMAINING
NORTHEAST...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 30S WHEN PRECIP ARRIVES. WILL SIDE WITH THE 0Z GFS AND
PUT LOWS SAT NIGHT JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS GET TO KEEP PRECIP
TYPE AS ALL RAIN. OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY.

AND FINALLY WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME CONSISTENCY TAKE HOLD IN ALL
THE MODELS BEYOND 7 DAYS WITH RESPECT TO A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF JANUARY. AN UPPER LEVEL REX
BLOCK OFF GREENLAND/NEWFOUNDLAND HAS BEEN A STAPLE OF THIS
WINTER/S UPPER PATTERN AND HAS RESULTED IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN
THE EASTERN US. THIS BLOCKING FEATURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
HEAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS...REACHING ALASKA AND
WESTERN CANADA BY 10 DAYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED FETCH
OF CANADIAN AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY TRUE ARCTIC AIR INTO MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY. TOO EARLY TO OFFER ANY EXACT NUMBERS...BUT THIS MAY
END UP BEING OUR BIGGEST COLD SPELL OF THE 2010-11 WINTER.

[Texas Snowman]

Siberian Express Alert.

Pipe splitting weather alert.

Firewood pile and natural gas supply alert.

Perhaps this will end up being a bust, but at this point, signals and models are pointing at the possibility of HISTORIC cold which could be in the offing next week.

From OKC weather service from this morning's forecast discussion:

From OKC this morning:

SYSTEM DUE INTO THE TX/OK AREA THIS WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARD A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS TX. WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE S SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO BE A
COLD LIGHT-RAIN EVENT IF IT HAPPENS THIS FAR N... BUT WITH
CANADIAN AIR BECOMING INVOLVED WE CANT BE TOO SURE. RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL BE MAINTAINED CENTRAL/SW SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY WINTER-TYPE
PRECIP COULD BE ALMOST ANY VARIETY. WHATEVER HAPPENS THIS WEEKEND
IS LIKELY TO BE A MERE APPETIZER AHEAD OF THE MAIN COURSE OVER
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

MORE ATTENTION CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TURN OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. BIG RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO ALASKA BY
LATE WEEKEND... SUPPORTING A SIZEABLE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER W
CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO SW CANADA AND NW CONUS.
FORMATION OF A 500-MB 575-580 HIGH OVER AK... WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW... GENERALLY
DOES NOT TURN OUT WELL - FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 MUCH LESS THE S
PLAINS. GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR
AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD
IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F
NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE
STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD... SNOW AND/OR ICE... OR PERHAPS
ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME.

[Texas Snowman]

Dodge City NWS morning discussion for 1/3/2011:

DAYS 3-7...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD CAN BE DIVIDED INTO TWO AREAS...TRANQUIL AND SEASONAL WEATHER
AND THEN EXCITING AND POTENTIALLY VERY COLD WEATHER. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE QUIESCENT PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A LARGE VORTEX SPINS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. OVERALL, THERE WERE LITTLE CHANGES MADE
IN THIS PERIOD AS THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO VALUES.

SUNDAY ONWARDS MARKS THE MOST INTERESTING SYNOPTIC CHANGE WITH
FRIGID WEATHER BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN. OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO,
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GIVING NOT SO SUBTLE HINTS AT AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS INTRUSION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. BY NEXT WEEKEND, BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LARGE RIDGE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 HPA
HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER ALASKA. A LARGE POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS CROSS POLAR
FLOW AND A NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS CANADA. THIS FLOW WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER AIR CLOSER (SURFACE FORECAST TEMPERATURES OF -10F TO
-30F). THIS AIR MASS WILL THEN HIT THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND THEN
GRAVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SEND THIS DENSE AIR MASS SOUTH INTO THE
UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT TIMING AS
NOW THE GFS IS SLOWER THEN ECMWF. I SIDED WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION
AND BROUGHT THE ARCTIC AIR IN BY NEXT SUNDAY. I HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE
ON THE DOWNWARD SPIRAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT LESS ABOUT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND IF THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES DO VERIFY THEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY SO I MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD POPS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT IT WILL GET VERY
COLD AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A WHILE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN
ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. -SUGDEN