SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[Tireman4]

Old Wive's Tale... when you hear thunder in the winter (if I got it wrong, I so stand corrected)...it will snow in one week. Now, when I lived in North Carolina, that sorta came true many times more than not. I wonder about here....?

[vbhoutex]

Old Wive's Tale... when you hear thunder in the winter (if I got it wrong, I so stand corrected)...it will snow in one week. Now, when I lived in North Carolina, that sorta came true many times more than not. I wonder about here....?

We should be so lucky!!

[southerngale]

Flood Advisories for Jefferson and Hardin Counties... getting quite nasty out there. Lots of standing water and now several inches of water reported over Hwy. 105. I live right off Hwy. 105 (between Beaumont and Sour Lake) but I'm at home, and fine. A lot of thunder and lightning too.

Feast or famine.



FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
551 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010

TXC199-300145-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.Y.0036.101229T2351Z-101230T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARDIN TX-
551 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WILDWOOD...THICKET...SOUR LAKE...
SILSBEE...SARATOGA...LUMBERTON...KOUNTZE...

* UNTIL 745 PM CST

* AT 549 PM CST...WEATHER OBSERVERS REPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER
ACROSS HIGHWAY 105 NEAR SOUR LAKE. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT TWO
HOURS...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR. THIS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES...CAUSING HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DEPTH AND SPEED OF FLOOD WATERS.

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN... MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.
NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE
FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE
ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3053 9454 3052 9407 3043 9411
3034 9408 3030 9411 3023 9411 3019 9408
3016 9411 3019 9420 3017 9424 3017 9427
3012 9430 3010 9438 3012 9461 3049 9473




------------------------------------------------------------------------------



FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010

TXC245-300030-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.Y.0034.101229T2226Z-101230T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON TX-
426 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SABINE PASS...PORT NECHES...PORT
ARTHUR...NOME...NEDERLAND...HAMSHIRE...GROVES...CENTRAL GARDENS...
BEAUMONT...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 425 PM CST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING
RAINFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WHILE
DRIVING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO SMALL CREEKS AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...FRONTAGE ROADS...
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES...FARM-TO-MARKET AND OTHER SECONDARY ROADS MAY
FLOOD.

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN... MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.
NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE
FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE
ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 9437 2990 9445 3011 9445 3011 9434
3013 9430 3017 9427 3018 9417 3016 9410
3013 9411 3012 9408 3008 9409 3006 9404
3003 9403 2997 9385 2981 9395 2968 9383
2968 9406 2956 9436

[djmikey]

2.40" recorded here in Beaumont! Wow, what a day! I'm in the I-10 and 11th St. area... Numerous reports of flooding going on in this area! Sad thing is we need so much more!

[CajunMama]

WOW is all i can say about the storms here tonight. Flooding rains that came down so hard and fast. I looked out my front door and could barely see across the street because of the rain coming down so hard and it was also sideways. Coulee behind the house overflowed its banks. My backyard has standing water in it. Local met said on fb we had 60 mph gusts. Vermilion parish just south of here had a 79 mph gust. Crazy lightning. I think it started the major fire that struck the home of former pro tennis player chanda rubin.

[jasons2k]

I measured only .52" with this round - it seemed like a lot more than that! We had a steady rain with thunder, heavy at times, almost all day long. I suppose stranger things have happened...

[vbhoutex]

A little over 2 inches here David and still adding.

I was just able to check the gauge and we are at 2.05" here and hopefully at least the training is over.

After another round of storms around supper time we ended up with a total of 2.25" for yesterday. It did seem like a lot more to me too, but I'm sure that was accurate since we never had a lot of b lowing around. Several t'storms with heavy cg though.

[wxman57]

I measured 3.5" in southwest Houston yesterday. Street was flooded for a while, but it went down quickly once the rain quit.

Thunder in winter, rain in a week? Never heard that one. GFS says "thunder in winter, warm and rainy in a week":

[DPTX]

[quote="Tireman4"]Old Wive's Tale... when you hear thunder in the winter (if I got it wrong, I so stand corrected)...it will snow in one week. Now, when I lived in North Carolina, that sorta came true many times more than not. I wonder about here....?[/quote]

The version my family used was, "Thunder in February, frost in April." My aunt always marked her calendar when there would be thunder in Feb. More often than not there would be frost in April on the same day. Fun to track.

[vbhoutex]

The latest from Jeff is suggesting that we may indeed be in for some historic weather next week:

Fairly active weather pattern remains in play across TX after nearly 3 months of dry and warm weather.

More rain has fallen in the last week than during the last few months and this wet pattern appears to remain in place into the weekend as the southern jet stream remains active...not typical of La Nina winters. Coastal troughing will gradually develop overnight with cloud deck already in place over the SW and W sections of SE TX. Upgliding of the warm Gulf air mass over the cool surface dome will promote the formation of showers by late Tuesday as moisture deepens. Best rain chances will be south of I-10 where the lift and moisture will be greatest. Amounts will be on the light side with maximum totals of upwards of .50 of an inch. Dry weather Thursday and Friday.....

Weekend:
Potent southern stream short wave looks to impact the region Saturday and Sunday with good potential for widespread rainfall and possible severe thunderstorms. Strong short wave will enter into the SW US Wed/Thurs and amplify over N MX Friday before ejecting eastward across TX Saturday night. Very favorable jet dynamics will be in play with good amount and quality of Gulf moisture returning to the region. Still a little uncertain on the exact track of the upper level low and surface low and how far if at all the warm front and warm sector make it inland from the Gulf. This will greatly determine any severe weather threat. Still plenty of time to wash out all the details as we are still 3-4 days off.

Long Range:

TROUBLE and a lot of it is brewing in the arctic regions!

Fairly zonal upper air pattern looks to undergo major amplification and high latitude blocking by this weekend with Greenland upper air vortex retrograding toward SC Canada. At the surface this gives rise to a mamoth 1070mb arctic high pressure dome over NW Canada by early next week. Record US surface pressure is 1064mb in Montana during the Dec 1983 historic arctic outbreak...so we could be looking at something historic here. I have never seen such high pressures on extended model runs especially the ECMWF...so there is reason to be somewhat skeptical. Nonetheless, even if the models are off a little bit there appears little to stop a major outbreak of very cold air southward into the US by early next week as the upper air pattern and delivery look favorable to bring whatever is in NW Canada southward down the plains. Expect a shallow, but very cold air mass to enter TX sometime around Monday of next week and reach the coast by Tuesday..timing will likely change some. Models also show fairly significant amounts of moisture in the frozen/freezing air column suggesting P-type issues may abound across the entire region at some point next week. Arctic air masses are notorious for being shallow and supporting significant freezing rain/icing events instead of snow/sleet. Stay tuned!

[vbhoutex]

Jeff's morning discussion:

Radar already showing numerous showers along and south of I-10 from San Antonio to western Harris County. Showers and maybe a clap of thunder are forming north of a returning warm front currently located along the upper TX coast from offshore of Matagorda Bay to roughly 20 miles south of Galveston. Warm moist Gulf air mass is being lifted over the retreating shallow cold dome resulting in lifting and the formation of showers. Fog has also developed across the region as is typical north of a warm front.

Noisy SW flow aloft will provide a few small scale disturbances today and tonight to help interact with the warm front and a developing surface trough over the NW Gulf to keep decent rain chances in place. Strong mid level capping inversion should keep thunderstorms on the low side except maybe near the coast. Overall foggy, rainy, and cool conditions through tonight. Warm front may push slightly inland this evening allowing mid 60 degree dewpoints to spread across mid 50 degree water temperatures. This would support an episode of dense sea fog starting late this afternoon through about mid morning on Wednesday along the beaches and the coastal bays. Weak cold front will cross the area Wednesday afternoon pushing fog offshore and drying the area under increasing offshore flow.

Thursday and Friday will be dry and “mild” or near normal for early January standards with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s under mostly sunny skies.

Next storm system heads toward the region this weekend as a strong cut-off low pressure system off southern CA coast gradually becomes dislodged and forced eastward. After being in decent agreement yesterday, forecast models have once again developed some timing differences on when this system will impact the state. Models are typically too fast in ejecting cut-off lows eastward and will side with the slower solution focusing the highest rain chances on Sunday morning or possibly during the day Sunday versus the faster GFS showing the system Saturday evening. Track of the short wave has also bounced around some overnight and now is expect to be slightly further north. Still expect a good shot at widespread rainfall Saturday evening-Sunday midday with strong upper level dynamics coming in to play with a moist Gulf air mass. A little too early to look at severe parameters, but we could be talking about some severe weather especially along and S of I-10 with a 120kt jet streak overhead by early Sunday morning. Widespread rains of 1-2 inches looks likely with this system with a few isolated totals upwards of 3 inches which will be welcomed in the drought areas.

Potential Arctic Outbreak:

Very cold air mass will be building over NW Canada late this week with potential delivery into the US late this weekend.

Upper level pattern will undergo significant amplification with a building ridge over Alaska and NW Canada and high latitude blocking downstream over eastern and central Canada. Extremely cold air mass now over northern Siberia (-60F to -80F) will begin to slide across the north pole and southward into NW Canada where building surface pressures will begin to brew a massive arctic high pressure cell. Models continue to advertise at least a 1060mb+ arctic high over NW Canada by late this weekend with a favorable upper level delivery pattern southward. Will taper the severity of this potential outbreak at least for the initial shot early next week. Bitter cold should enter the US via Montana Saturday and surge rapidly southward down the plains as the cold and dense air mass dams up against the Rockies. Shallow arctic air masses tend to move southward faster than models predict and this will need to be watched for a faster arrival than currently expected. Arctic boundary should reach TX Monday and clear the coast Tuesday with very cold air spreading across the entire state. Expect lows well into the 20’s by Wednesday morning and highs only in the 30’s and 40’s for the middle of next week. Appears that moisture may make an attempt at spreading into the cold air mass toward the end of next week or the following weekend. GFS shows a secondary strong surge arriving around the 16th of the month with several days at or below freezing. In fact the GFS guidance for DFW shows temperatures below freezing from the 12th to the 20th during the entire period. At this point this does not appear to be a historic outbreak (such as Dec 1983 or Dec 1989), but possibly as severe as last January. The real bad outbreaks in the past have come in waves with each surge building on the previous surge and keeping sub-freezing temperatures locked in place for days and days. The models are showing this “surge” type pattern in the extended ranges…the questions remain as to how much cold air comes southward and does it all dump at once for a quick hit or do we get front after front keeping the cold air locked in place for several days

[srainhoutx]

Well, I managed a bit over a half and inch of rain and thunder/lightning as well, so far.

[BigB0882]

I hope this comes to fruition but I hate cold and it is only worth it if we get some snow out of it! Please, if the cold will be in place for a few days then let one storm system move through so we can have some snow...please!

[jasons2k]

I'm getting a decent thundershower at the moment - the heaviest rain of the night.

[vbhoutex]

We're up over an inch here with a light rain still falling. We weren't at home during the worst of it, but based on the piling up of leaves on the patio and how close to the house the water got we obviously had a very heavy downpour that gave us most of the rain at once. We still need the rain but I wish it would come in less intense events so it has time to soak in.

[southerngale]

The storm is here now. Lots of thunder & lightning, along with very heavy rain.

Edit: Getting a little crazy out there now. House shaking thunder several times now... *crossing fingers I don't lose power*

[srainhoutx]

Just busted an inch here and thunder again.

[southerngale]

On my Droid - dang storm! Knocked out my internet.

[vbhoutex]

Ended up with 1.38" from last nights storms.
Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner:

Dense fog blankets much of the area this morning behind the departing short wave from last night. Visibilities are running anywhere from 2 miles to 1/8th of a mile at most locations. Warm front is located along a line from Lake Charles to BUSH IAH to Victoria. Dense fog is widespread north of this boundary and then along the coast where sea fog is forming over the nearshore waters and bays. Surface wave over SE TX should progress eastward this morning allowing NW winds to develop and helping to clear out the drizzle and fog by late morning. A few showers are also noted on radar this morning over the coastal counties and these should be moving offshore and east of the area by mid morning.

Dry and seasonable weather for Thursday and Friday with lows in the 30’s and highs in the upper 60’s to near 70 by Friday.

Next big change arrives this weekend as the current cut-off low off of southern CA gets picked up by a trough moving into the Pacific NW and is then drug eastward across TX. Still dealing with model timing differences with this system, but looks like Saturday night into Sunday morning the area will be under the gun for widespread rainfall and possibly severe weather. Strong upper forcing from the upper level trough will develop surface low pressure late Saturday near Big Bend which will move ENE across TX Saturday night. A strong 35-40kt low level jet develops over the coastal bend Saturday afternoon transporting deep moisture northward into the region. Warm front will back northward toward the coast and likely move inland over SE TX allowing an unstable Gulf air mass to arrive just prior to the strong dynamics aloft. Numerous showers/thunderstorms are expected from Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday morning. There is a threat for severe weather along and south of the warm front…so its position will be important come Saturday evening. With a strong low level jet below a 120kt mid level jet streak…there will be lots of wind energy that could be transported to the surface in downdrafts so severe winds look most likely, but would not rule out a few tornadoes if enough instability is available. Favorable backed wind profiles in the lower levels may help enhance this risk near/along the warm frontal boundary.

Next Week:

Models have backed off on the strong arctic air event for next week in their 00Z and 06Z runs, but will not fully bite on this downplaying of the event. Models typically have a very hard time resolving these outbreaks due to their shallow nature east of the Rocky mountains and it is more surprising how much agreement they have had over the past 2-3 days on this event. With that said, all models do continue to show a favorable delivery pattern for arctic air to enter the US Saturday and reach the southern plains by Sunday. 1048mb high is progged just north of the Montana border early next week with 1040mb pressures building into WC TX by Tuesday. Note that these pressures are about 10mb lower than what we were looking at 2 days ago suggesting the intensity of the arctic high may not be as strong. Passing weekend southern plains/TX storm system should help grab the shallow arctic air mass over the central plains and sling it rapidly southward on Sunday. Will toss out the model guidance for Monday in favor of the arctic air mass pushing southward under its own density and arriving to the TX coast by Monday afternoon/evening. Typically once these air masses get moving there is little to stop them. Will need to undercut the GFS guidance from Tuesday onward by at least 10 degrees on the afternoon highs as the model is just not grasping this air mass today as in previous runs. Will go with highs in the 40’s on Tuesday under strong cold air advection and then highs in the 30’s on Wednesday as the arctic dome becomes fully entrenched. Not sure how much clearing will take place behind the front as there does look to be a period of post frontal low stratus and this will help temper the overnight lows…so low 30’s on Tuesday morning to upper 20’s on Wednesday morning. Should clouds clear out…overnight lows will be about 5-8 degrees colder.

GFS attempts to completely erode the arctic dome by Thursday and Friday of next week as it spins up low pressure in the lee of the Rockies inducing southerly flow over TX. Once in place arctic cold domes are hard to dislodge, and suspect the model is moving the cold air too quickly eastward. GFS then crashes a secondary surge down the plains next weekend arriving around the 16/17 of the month.

As mentioned before we are not looking at anything historic or record breaking from this pending event, but a prolonged period of well below normal cold with potential for hard freezes over multiple days still looks likely. It remains questionable on how intense this outbreak may be and how long it will last. Stay tuned.

[jasons2k]

.92 from the rain on Tuesday night, so I am racking it up for January!

Here is an update from Jeff:

Much to talk about this morning in the middle and extended portions of the period.

Cut-off upper low off the southern CA coast has pulled up stationary and will begin to move eastward later today. Massive plume of mid and high level moisture south of this system currently extending from the central Pacific to NC MX will swing eastward into NE MX and TX over the next 24-36 hours. Approaching upper level system will induce surface pressure falls over SW TX late Saturday afternoon with surface low pressure forming in the region from the Big Bend to Laredo. Strong warm air advection will ensue into this system with a warm front moving toward the coast and possibly inland Saturday evening. Large scale lift with the upper level storm will begin to affect the area by Saturday evening resulting in the formation of showers across the entire region and thunderstorms over the Rio Grande plains.

Big show appears to be in store Saturday night-Sunday as surface low deepens over SC TX and pushes over the upper TX coastal counties from Matagorda Bay to Galveston Bay Sunday. Appears the warm front will move just inland of the coast…possibly to US 59 ahead of the surface low. Forecasted low level winds south of this boundary are strongly backed to the E or ESE with rapid veering of the winds to the SW in the mid levels supporting strong low level wind shear favorable for updraft rotation and supercell storm structures. Current limiting factor for a significant severe weather/tornado outbreak appears to be the amount of instability with progged indices of around 1000J/kg south of the warm front. With all that said, still expect isolated severe weather along and south of the warm front early Sunday morning with potential for damaging winds and an isolated tornado.

North of the warm front a cold rain as low level NE winds wrap in cold air over NE TX and N LA into the system. Expect temperatures south of the warm front to rise into the 60’s while north of the boundary temperatures will remain in the 40’s all day Sunday with widespread rain. As the surface low deepens and moves east of the area strong offshore flow will develop drawing the cold air mass southward. Slower upper trough ejection will bring a chance of showers across the area behind the main surface low keeping rain chances into Sunday afternoon. Low level cold air advection will drive temperatures into the low to mid 30’s over our northern counties by Sunday evening, but at this time it appears the moisture will be east of the region before the onset of any freezing at the surface.

Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches appears likely with this system, although I am becoming a little concerned about the warm front placement as these features tend to focus and train excessive rainfall. Additionally, the placement of this boundary by early Sunday morning could be close to US 59 where excessive rainfall fell on the 29th of Dec resulting in heavy rainfall over wet/soggy grounds. A few locations near the warm front could see 3-4 inches of rainfall.

Early Next Week:

Much talked about arctic front still on tap to bring very cold air to the region starting late Monday. Suspect clouds will linger much of Monday behind the departing Sunday system keeping highs in the 40’s on Monday even prior to the arctic invasion. Large 1055mb arctic high will begin to surge down the plains Sunday reaching the TX coast late Monday. May need a faster timing with this boundary as such cold dense air masses tend to move very quickly southward. Very strong cold air advection will ensue post boundary by Monday night with NW winds of 20-30mph and possibly higher along the coast. Temperatures will rapidly fall from the 40’s into the 30’s and possibly upper 20’s by Tuesday morning. Models are bouncing around with the idea of keeping clouds in the area at times Tuesday and Wednesday and this will have big effects on overnight lows and afternoon highs in the post frontal air mass. Will continue the trend yesterday of undercutting the GFS guidance numbers by several degrees from Tuesday onward. Will go with lows in the upper 20’s for Tuesday morning (even with strong winds and clouds) and highs only in the low to mid 40’s. For Wednesday will go with lows again in the upper 20’s (could see lower 20’s if skies clear) and highs in the upper 30’s to near 40. Thursday will go with lows in the upper 20’s and highs in the low 40’s. GFS tries to generate some light precipitation by Thursday of next week in the cold air mass, but not confident that this will occur.

Possibly some warming Friday and Saturday of next week before another surge of very cold arctic air arrives late next weekend. Next week to week and a half will feature well below normal temperatures across the entire state. In fact highs may run 15-20 degrees below normal.