SIO: Invest 97S

[wyq614]

Another low may form along the monsoon trough between 10S and 12S, 95E to 105E
during Wednesday or Thursday. This low is expected to move to the west and may
develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday before it crosses 90E.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Thursday :Low
Friday :Low
Saturday :Moderate

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 89.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 930 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. THE SYSTEM HAS
SHOWN IMPROVED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES SYSTEM CONVECTION IS NOW CONSOLIDATING
AND INTENSIFYING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
310030Z HI-RES VISUAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS
NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED, IT IS WELL DEFINED, WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. A 301557Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES
INCREASED WINDS THROUGH ALL QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE DIFFLUENT, WITH APPROXIMATELY 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW TO THE POLEWARD SIDE HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT IS STILL NOT WELL-
DEVELOPED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.



Clearly exposed:

[Chacor]

T 1.5 from KNES.

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better

[HURAKAN]

31/2100 UTC 12.1S 85.7E T2.0/2.0 97S -- Southwest Indian

30 knots

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3S
89.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 980 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
DEEPENING. A 311403Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT THE ACTUAL CENTER IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. ALSO EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS THAT
THE SYSTEM REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW (15-20KTS), AND
OUTFLOW HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
88.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE REGION OF DEEP, CONSISTENT CONVECTION WITH MODERATE WESTWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ORGANIZATION IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE INFRARED
IMAGERY, BUT A 011316Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION FORMING A FORMATIVE BAND
INTO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 011205Z PARTIAL
WINDSAT PASS SHOWS THAT WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED TO 25KTS ON THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS SUBJECT TO MODERATE (20KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE NOGAPS, ECMWF AND UKMO CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD AND KEEP IT IN THE REGION OF HIGHER VWS, GFS BRINGS
THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
INTO A REGION OF LOWER VWS AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[Chacor]

WTIO20 FMEE 020633
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/01/2011 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 1/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 02/01/2011 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7S / 80.9E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT
0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 80 NM FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN
THE WESTERN SECTOR.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEA WITHIN 60NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2011/01/02 AT 18 UTC:
11.6S / 80.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H, VALID 2011/01/03 AT 06 UTC:
12.2S / 79.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WEST OF THE POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTRE.
SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND TURN SOUTH-WESTWARD.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/3/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2011/01/02 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7S / 80.9E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/01/02 18 UTC: 11.6S/80.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/01/03 06 UTC: 12.2S/79.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/01/03 18 UTC: 12.7S/78.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2011/01/04 06 UTC: 13.1S/78.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2011/01/04 18 UTC: 13.4S/77.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/01/05 06 UTC: 13.6S/76.0E FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
CONVECTION EXISTS WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE ACCORDING TO A RATHER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
LLCC IS EXPOSED BUT POORLY DEFINED AND THE POSITION CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ACCURATELY.
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS NORTH-WEST WARD.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH POORLY MONSOON INFLOW.
SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND EAST-NORTH-EAST WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STRONG.
NWP MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TRACK SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.
SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE TO AN INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS.

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2011/01/02 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 80.9E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 180 SO: 150 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/01/03 00 UTC: 12.3S/80.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/01/03 12 UTC: 13.1S/79.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/01/04 00 UTC: 13.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2011/01/04 12 UTC: 14.2S/78.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2011/01/05 00 UTC: 14.7S/77.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/01/05 12 UTC: 15.4S/75.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATTERN HAS IMPROVED TEMPORARILY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE HAS BEEN RELOCATED SOUTH OF THE ANALIZED POSITION AT 06TU.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS STILL EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD POLEWARD BUT IS RATHER POOR EQUATORWARD.
SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOEDRATE EAST-NORTH-EAST UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER WIND SHEAR EFFECT IS LIMITED IN RELATION WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE IS ALSO LIMITED.

MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD RATHER SLOWLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD.

[KWT]

Yeah the system does look pretty sheared right now it has to be said on that Sat.image above...

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 239
WTIO30 FMEE 030020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/3/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
2.A POSITION 2011/01/03 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7S / 79.9E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 28 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: SO: 360 NO: 200
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/01/03 12 UTC: 12.0S/79.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/01/04 00 UTC: 12.4S/78.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/01/04 12 UTC: 12.8S/77.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2011/01/05 00 UTC: 13.1S/77.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2011/01/05 12 UTC: 13.3S/76.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/01/06 00 UTC: 13.4S/74.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+ CI=2.0+
CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING, AND IS ALWAYS SUFERING OF A MODERATE
EASTH NORTH-EAST UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS STILL EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD POLEWARD BUT IS RATHER POOR EQUATORWARD.
SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EAST-NORTH-EAST UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER WIND SHEAR EFFECT IS LIMITED IN RELATION WITH THE WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE IS
ALSO LIMITED.
MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD RATHER SLOWLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE WESTWARD NORTH TO
THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL BELT.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

really strong shear

[KWT]

Wow that shear is really strong, the convection is a long way away from any center of circulation.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

6 hours, meet poofy the cloud! lol

[KWT]

Yep another invest in this region meets its death, seems nothing is getting going down there at the moment...