Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

How cold are we talking in Fort Worth? I hate when its brutaly cold with no snow!

IMHO, sub-freezing high temps for a day or two wouldn't be out of the question. Maybe more if this pattern delivers.

Wow! When was it last year, it got really cold, below freezing for two or three days, with no snow?

Early to mid January

[Texas Snowman]

Just stunning to see such consistency via guidance.

I know there is still a long way to go, but the way that Ft. Worth, OKC, and Dodge City all jumped on this, I belive this may be one of those once in a decade, once in a generation cold snaps that we talk about in hushed tones for years to come.

1983, 1989, etc.

One that reaches all the way to the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

Where are the Brownsville NWS old-timers when you need them (for their famous discussions on such cold air intrusions)?!?

[srainhoutx]

Just stunning to see such consistency via guidance.

I know there is still a long way to go, but the way that Ft. Worth, OKC, and Dodge City all jumped on this, I belive this may be one of those once in a decade, once in a generation cold snaps that we talk about in hushed tones for years to come.

1983, 1989, etc.

One that reaches all the way to the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

Where are the Brownsville NWS old-timers when you need them (for their famous discussions on such cold air intrusions)?!?

I still look daily for those infamous McFarland type discussions from KBRO.

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like the pattern is ripe lee side of the rockies. Nothing but barbed wire holding it back. Stunning how this La Nada is getting slapped around at times. Hopefully there will be a snowcover just before the arctic arrives. Fun stretch if there was. I'd be shocked if we go through the entire period unscathed, without wintry precipitation.

JB sure seems to think the battle zone is shifting south into TX, as far as storms go.

Yeah, wasn't it just a week ago that the huge Mid-Atlantic and NE blizzard was the first such mega N'Oreaster style snowstorm to hit (20+ inches in New Jersey anyone?) during a La Nada winter in a couple of decades or more?

[iorange55]

I'm still refraining my excitement. I obviously can see it's going to get cold, but when things happen I like them to happen big. So if it's just cold I want it to be really cold and historic. It'll be kind of disappointing if it's just kind of cold and no winter precip.

Things are looking good, though. Hopefully the models continue to show more and more cold pouring down and keep doing in the right direction. It's going to be fun to watch late this week into the weekend.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, wasn't it just a week ago that the huge Mid-Atlantic and NE blizzard was the first such mega N'Oreaster style snowstorm to hit (20+ inches in New Jersey anyone?) during a La Nada winter in a couple of decades or more?

Yes I believe so . Those Miller A's (correct me if it's B) are rather rare in La Nada.

[Texas Snowman]

but when things happen I like them to happen big. So if it's just cold I want it to be really cold and historic.

Totally agree. Now don't get me wrong, I'd love to see a big winter storm (except for a big ice storm. No thanks on that). Several inches of snow.

But if the cold is coming, then bring it on in:

(a) historic fashion (it's been a while since those cold snaps of the 1980s);

(b) make it severe (let's set a few records. Heck, let's set a lot of records!);

and (c) let it last a week or more (no need for a one or two day shot, then moderating back into the 50s and 60s. If we're going to get this, then let's get it right).

[txagwxman]

ECMWF day 10 looks extremely cold Texas---lows into the teens Dallas with snow...still a long ways out, but might as well hype it up.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF day 10 looks extremely cold Texas---lows into the teens Dallas with snow...still a long ways out, but might as well hype it up.

Portastorm was asking about you the other day. Good to see you back.

[Portastorm]

ECMWF day 10 looks extremely cold Texas---lows into the teens Dallas with snow...still a long ways out, but might as well hype it up.

Portastorm was asking about you the other day. Good to see you back.

Yes I was! Great to see you back, txagwxman. Your insights last winter were invaluable. I hope you'll be plugged in with us this week as we watch this event unfold.

Next up today are the afternoon AFDs out of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas (hello Dodge City!) and then the 18z GFS run to see where things might be headed.

[Sambucol]

If the models are right, will this cold air put SE Texas into the deep freeze? Any snow, sleet possible here?

[Snowluvr]

ECMWF day 10 looks extremely cold Texas---lows into the teens Dallas with snow...still a long ways out, but might as well hype it up.

Portastorm was asking about you the other day. Good to see you back.

Yes I was! Great to see you back, txagwxman. Your insights last winter were invaluable. I hope you'll be plugged in with us this week as we watch this event unfold.

Next up today are the afternoon AFDs out of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas (hello Dodge City!) and then the 18z GFS run to see where things might be headed.

I'm so glad I found this site. It's good to know that there are other people out there as passionate about snow in the south as I am. I've watched the weather since I was about 8 and I remember the arctic outbreak of '89 like it was yesterday. We had daytime highs in the 20s here in south Ms. and the cold hung around for several days. I don't think we've seen anything like that since. It seems now the cold shots only last a day or two. I really hope this event pans out and we see snow all over Texas and the deep south.

[southerngale]

Maybe I'm looking at this through snow-colored glasses ... but I think that is more an issue of the GFS not handling the Arctic air well. When you get those 1050-1060 mb highs sliding down into Western Canada, unless you have some kind of firehose jet stream from the Pacific holding the air at bay, that air is gonna come south along the leeside of the Rockies. Right now, the Pacific jet ain't all that strong!

As far as vorticity/storms go, yeah ... hard to say right now. It would be nice to see some disturbances roll through to maximize our "vodka cold" and give us some wintry fun. But I do feel more confident that we're going to see some major-league cold in the next 7-10 days.

One thing I remember Wxman57 teaching us a few winters back ... in situations like this, with the GFS, pay more attention to the source regions for the where the air is coming from and the progged 500mb flow. That will tell you more than the surface depictions from the GFS sometimes.

... as if there was any other way.

[txagwxman]

I don't know about snow yet...but it is possible 10 days out in Dallas.

But that is still a long ways out for me, and ECMWF deepest out of all the ECMWF ensemble members.

[Tireman4]

ECMWF day 10 looks extremely cold Texas---lows into the teens Dallas with snow...still a long ways out, but might as well hype it up.

Good to see you back as well. Missed ya

[Portastorm]

NWSFO Fort Worth snippet from their afternoon AFD:

PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED A CHANCE
OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH TX ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE 02/12Z GFS AND ECMWF
FAIL TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH TX AT THIS TIME. EVEN
IN THE 02/12Z CYCLE OF THE GEFS THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT SUPPORT A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING
THRU CENTRAL TX SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE NOW WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT THE GFS NOW BRINGS THE UPPER
LOW SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON NORTH TX WEATHER
WHILE THE ECMWF IS SIMPLY TOO WEAK TO WARRANT CHANGING POPS ANY AT
THIS TIME. NEITHER SOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH TX. TOMORROW THESE MODELS MAY BE ONCE
AGAIN BE FORECASTING A POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVING OVER CENTRAL
TX...SO WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING THAT A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A 1048 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW DAYS
OF TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH A DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THIS
ARCTIC AIRMASS...HOWEVER JUST THE FACT THAT THE GFS ADVERTISES A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THRU THE REGION IS A SIGN THAT
NEXT WEEK MAY START OFF QUITE COLD.

And here is a snippet from the AFD out of Dodge City, KS:

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MANY QUESTIONS EXIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FUTURE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE MILES APART WITH RESPECT TO
EVOLUTION OF THE VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE ECMWF
FAVORS A MAJOR COLD AIR OUTBREAK OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, THE 12Z GFS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY
MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. ENSEMBLE DATA IS OF
LITTLE HELP IN THIS TIME FRAME. EXISTING FORECAST IS AIMING FOR
COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND WILL OPT TO LEAVE THIS UNCHANGED UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY EXISTS
AMONG THE MODELS.

[Ntxw]

Cold seems to be a lock. But the snow chances keep getting pushed back and back. iorange said it, perhaps a tease of a winter.

CPC Look at all the pretty shades of Bleu

[iorange55]

Been awhile since I've seen the map look like that.

[Ntxw]

Been awhile since I've seen the map look like that.

The entire contiguous states is below average, and during the coldest part of the year too. That's sayin something. Historic cold snaps don't usually come in one big shot, but numerous ones that gradually take it down to the icebox. Perhaps that's what we're seeing with models showing several HP systems one behind another. There's always a major storm dragging the front end of it down, I wonder where and when it will be

[richtrav]

I'm still refraining my excitement. I obviously can see it's going to get cold, but when things happen I like them to happen big. So if it's just cold I want it to be really cold and historic. It'll be kind of disappointing if it's just kind of cold and no winter precip.

Things are looking good, though. Hopefully the models continue to show more and more cold pouring down and keep doing in the right direction. It's going to be fun to watch late this week into the weekend.

You can have your snow but please no '83 or '89 type cold, those events were true natural disasters and caused death, misery and much economic damage. Fortunately the models usually exaggerate such events this far out