Texas Winter 2010-2011

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#421 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:22 am

I'm going to look like such a tool after I told everybody I know about how there's no way it's going to snow this winter.

Granted, we'll see.... I echo the sentiments already posted in the past few pages, this had better be the real deal. I don't want a glancing blow sliding off to the east, I don't want one day of teens or twenties before bouncing back into the sixties....I want the real deal. I didn't have a camera when I saw White Rock Lake frozen over last winter, and I want another chance at that image!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#422 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:30 am

From Fort Worth this morning:

/AND NOW A DISSERTATION ON A LIKELY COLD SPELL NEXT WEEK/

ALL THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN LATITUDES...WITH BLOCKED
UPPER FLOW SETTING UP AND PERSISTING ACROSS CANADA.
MODELS FORECAST
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVER WESTERN CANADA TO BREAK DOWN AND BE
REPLACED BY A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE TEMPS COOL AND PRESSURES GRADUALLY RISE. IN SHORT
THIS MEANS WESTERN CANADA WILL BE THE GENESIS REGION OF THE COLD
AIR MASS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN 7 TO 8 DAYS.

THE ASTUTE OBSERVER WOULD NOTICE TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
ALASKA ARE NOT THAT COLD NOW. I KNOW IT IS A HABIT FOR MANY OF US
TO THROW A MAP OF SURFACE TEMPS UP AND TRY TO SEE WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS AND WHERE IT IS COMING FROM. BUT THIS IS SORT OF A RULE OF
THUMB AND IS PARTIALLY FLAWED THINKING FOR A COUPLE REASON. FIRST
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS NOT A CONSERVED QUANTITY...IT DEVELOPS
AND IS ALSO DESTROYED BY COMPLEX DYNAMIC MOTIONS ALOFT. THE SECOND
REASON IS AN ANALYSIS OF WHERE OUR PAST BIG ARCTIC OUTBREAKS
ORIGINATE USING BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES SHOWS US THAT THE NORTH POLE
REGION IS PREFERRED...BUT OUR SURFACE PARCELS HERE ACTUALLY
ORIGINATE AT LEVELS BETWEEN 500MB-700MB. THUS AN ANALYSIS OF
500MB-700MB TEMPS AND ANOMALIES IN THE NORTHERN LATITUDES CAN GIVE
US A GOOD PROXY TO COMPARE AND JUDGE THE STRENGTH OF FUTURE ARCTIC
EPISODES. THESE CURRENT MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPS ARE CHILLY...BUT NOT
TOO UNUSUAL. SO THE FRONT THAT ARRIVES IN A WEEK MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING...AT LEAST NOT INITIALLY.

WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THE FORECAST UPPER PATTERN IS THAT BY
7-10 DAYS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER ALASKA...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA. THESE POLAR LOWS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAKS WHEN THEY MOVE SOUTH...AND THAT IS WHAT THE GFS
HAS BEEN FORECASTING TO OCCUR IN THE 10-15 DAY TIME RANGE.
WHETHER
THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. REGARDLESS...THE BLOCKING
UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP A PROLONGED FETCH OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR
COMING INTO THE REGION FOR THE 2ND WEEK OF JANUARY. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHETHER ANY MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT NONETHELESS ITS
SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING WEEK WEATHER-WISE
.

TR.92
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#423 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Mon Jan 03, 2011 6:46 am

I really appreciate how FWD is putting much more detailed long range forecasts in the winter than they used to. The above is hefty talk compared to what they were doing 10 days out a couple of years ago. Of course SRain called this a couple of days ago, little backup from txagwxman and we're ready to go right? Bring on the moisture we're going to have a skating rink all over Texas.

Just seeing that high temp of 5 on MLK day from that link Iorange posted. That goes back a ways since we've seen anything like that. But if memory serves thats happened before in a la nina winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#424 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 03, 2011 7:23 am

Morning peeps! I see the chatter was active last night. :lol: Pattern change, indeed!

Here is a selection of snippets from AFDs this morning from Texas-based NWSFOs. Thanks to Texas Snowman for posting the great discussion out of Fort Worth.


Amarillo:

THE ECMWF
IS ALSO MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAVOR THE COLDER ECMWF
SOLUTION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
BOTH MODELS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

San Angelo:

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE INITIAL SURGE OF
MUCH COLDER/ARCTIC AIR WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. HAVE
NOT COOLED TEMPERATURES OFF TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME AS THE COLDEST AIR
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS
EVENT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AND KEEP TRACK OF IN THE COMING
WEEK.

Austin/San Antonio:

STARTING TO SEE INDICATIONS OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. DID
NUDGE DOWN MIN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE CATEGORIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT STILL IN LINE WITH ADJACENT OFFICES.

Corpus Christi:

THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INDICATING ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 1050MB PLUS
HIGH PRESSURE.

Lubbock:

JUST BEYOND...SOMEWHERE PERHAPS BETWEEN LATE NEXT SUNDAY AND MAYBE
TUESDAY APPEARS TO LOOM THE ARRIVAL OF A POLAR AIRMASS. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO ALASKA SHOULD FAVOR
DELIVERY OF SUCH A SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR
RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#425 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:15 am

And my favorite as well as others, Dodge City...

SUNDAY ONWARDS MARKS THE MOST INTERESTING SYNOPTIC CHANGE WITH
FRIGID WEATHER BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN. OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO,
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GIVING NOT SO SUBTLE HINTS AT AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS INTRUSION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. BY NEXT WEEKEND, BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LARGE RIDGE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 HPA
HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER ALASKA. A LARGE POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS CROSS POLAR
FLOW AND A NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS CANADA. THIS FLOW WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER AIR CLOSER (SURFACE FORECAST TEMPERATURES OF -10F TO
-30F). THIS AIR MASS WILL THEN HIT THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND THEN
GRAVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SEND THIS DENSE AIR MASS SOUTH INTO THE
UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT TIMING AS
NOW THE GFS IS SLOWER THEN ECMWF. I SIDED WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION
AND BROUGHT THE ARCTIC AIR IN BY NEXT SUNDAY. I HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE
ON THE DOWNWARD SPIRAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT LESS ABOUT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND IF THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES DO VERIFY THEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY SO I MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD POPS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT IT WILL GET VERY
COLD AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A WHILE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN
ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW.
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#426 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:56 am

If that Gulf low could wait just a few days... :)

The high seems to be centered a bit further west than an optimum event, but either way, after Jan 10 seems to be brutal. A series of arctic fronts coming down, im sure some of us will have a winter weather event out of this if it pans out. Need the MJO to feed us some moisture.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#427 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Mon Jan 03, 2011 10:39 am

Portastorm wrote:Morning peeps! I see the chatter was active last night. :lol: Pattern change, indeed!

Here is a selection of snippets from AFDs this morning from Texas-based NWSFOs. Thanks to Texas Snowman for posting the great discussion out of Fort Worth.


Amarillo:

THE ECMWF
IS ALSO MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAVOR THE COLDER ECMWF
SOLUTION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
BOTH MODELS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

San Angelo:

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE INITIAL SURGE OF
MUCH COLDER/ARCTIC AIR WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. HAVE
NOT COOLED TEMPERATURES OFF TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME AS THE COLDEST AIR
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS
EVENT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AND KEEP TRACK OF IN THE COMING
WEEK.

Austin/San Antonio:

STARTING TO SEE INDICATIONS OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. DID
NUDGE DOWN MIN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE CATEGORIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT STILL IN LINE WITH ADJACENT OFFICES.

Corpus Christi:

THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INDICATING ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 1050MB PLUS
HIGH PRESSURE.

Lubbock:

JUST BEYOND...SOMEWHERE PERHAPS BETWEEN LATE NEXT SUNDAY AND MAYBE
TUESDAY APPEARS TO LOOM THE ARRIVAL OF A POLAR AIRMASS. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO ALASKA SHOULD FAVOR
DELIVERY OF SUCH A SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR
RIGHT NOW.



I wonder if one of the oldtimers from NWS Brownsville might come in and write a discussion for the newbies at the office down there. Time for one of those guys to put down the golf clubs at Rancho Viejo and get back to work! :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#428 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Mon Jan 03, 2011 10:41 am

What is JB saying about all this? He has a bunch of clients in the Ag and energy industry in Texas. This should have him shouting from his mountain top. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#429 Postby natlib » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:14 am

Our friend Larry C. is forecasting the bad cold to affect mainly north and east Texas. I guess that would leave me out of the cold and maybe Austin---San Antonio as well.
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#430 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:17 am

Accuweather had an article last week talking about a severe cold outbreak coming mid- January. He hasnt said anything this am, but did post his monday morning ice update. I think he is saving the juicy details for hi clients. Nat Gas prices are up 4% on the futures market though. Expect it to go much higher
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#431 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:21 am

Couple of quick responses:

1) While I'm no longer an Accuwx Pro subscriber, I have been told by others that JB has been bullish on the Arctic Outbreak for the Plains next week (including Texas). So he is allegedly on board.

2) LC in his discussion last night did indicate the potential for Arctic air next week for south Texas but downplayed its role in this weekend's weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#432 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:25 am

Portastorm wrote:Couple of quick responses:


2) LC in his discussion last night did indicate the potential for Arctic air next week for south Texas but downplayed its role in this weekend's weather.



I wonder if he is hedging his bets.....
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#433 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:25 am

Here are some notable La Nina Winters of the past and could shed some light on what may be ahead as well as what has happened in the past regarding these type events via NWS Austin/San Antonio...

The averages do not pick up the extremes that have occurred since the Fall of 1949 and Winter of 1950. For South Central Texas, although on average moderate to strong La Nina conditions favor increasing probabilities of warmer and drier periods from the Fall through the Winter, there have been a few exceptions in the sub tropical climate over South Central Texas. Even though the active wintertime jet stream is displaced north of South Central Texas, there have been cases since the Fall of 1949 and Winter of 1950 where sub tropical weather patterns linked with features over the Tropics and Mid Latitudes to bring occasional cold outbreaks and periods of heavy rain and precipitation to South Central Texas. A few significant Arctic Outbreaks have come during La Nina Events, including December 1950; late January to February 1951; January and February 1985; February 1989; and January and February of 1996. Another feature that shows up with La Nina winters is more extremes between warm and cold, especially with the dry winters. February of 1996 was an extreme example where it was very cold at the beginning of the month, then set all time February Highs on February 21st, followed by very cold conditions at the end of February 1996. The February monthly record high at Del Rio of 99 on February 21, 1996 was later tied, when the high was 99 on February 25, 2008. The high on February 21, 1996 at Austin Mueller Airport was 99, at Austin Bergstrom 101, and at San Antonio 100 on February 21, 1996. The Winter of 1964/1965 had rainfall wetter than usual for Austin and San Antonio. The winter of 1967/1968 was wetter than usual at Austin, Del Rio, and San Antonio. In January 1968, a slow moving cutoff low came across the area from the west and caused a January flood, similar to the December 1991 floods. The January 1968 case occurred during a weak La Nina period, while the December of 1991 case occurred during a moderate to strong El Nino. January 1968 was the wettest January at San Antonio and the 4th wettest January at Austin Mabry. In November of 1974, during a La Nina period, a heavy rain event came to Austin, and caused flooding. From the Fall of 1984 through the Winter of 1985, during a La Nina period, wetter than usual conditions came most of the time, as relief from the dry period in 1984 came in the Fall of 1984. There were also a number of cold outbreaks in January and February of 1985. This included the heavy snow event that came in January 1985, a record for San Antonio and Del Rio and the 7th heaviest snow for Austin. In January 1985 the first snow event came January 2nd followed by a 2nd snow event from January 11th to 13th, 1985. January 1985 holds the record for the most snow in a month at San Antonio, 15.9 inches of snow, and at Del Rio, with 9.8 inches of snow. For snowfall at Austin January 1985 comes in 2nd place with 7.5 inches of snow, after the record of 9.7 inches of snow in January 1937. Floods from a heavy rain event in October 1998 during La Nina were followed by very dry conditions from December 1998 through the Winter of 1999. In the La Nina period from the Fall of 2000 through the Spring of 2001, wetter than usual conditions came, accompanied by occasional cold outbreaks.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/wxev ... ntrltx.pdf
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#434 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:31 am

LC says in his weather statement that he expects a winter storm to develop in the western gulf as the cold air arrives. (Jan 12th and so on). Cold air that is that huge cant do much but head further south though right? Once it starts moving, whats to stop it? Am i missing something?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#435 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:46 am

The 12Z GFS also suggests a storm taking shape to our SW/W in the 240 hour time frame. With all the cold air in place via the GFS at that time, wintry weather breaks out and spreads across the Lone Star State.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#436 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:49 am

Just look at the cold pouring down

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#437 Postby southerngale » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:51 am

srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z GFS also suggests a storm taking shape to our SW/W in the 240 hour time frame. With all the cold air in place via the GFS at that time, wintry weather breaks out and spreads across the Lone Star State.


Oh you've done it now. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#438 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:53 am

Regarding the info from my local NWSFO (Austin/San Antonio) that srainhoutx posted ... and thanks for that great and timely piece of info, srain! ... the snow events in Jan/Feb 1985 in Austin were awesome. I remember it well as we had two separate 2-4 inch snowfalls which literally shuut down the town for several days. Happened in a La Nina winter. Could the same be ahead? :wink: :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#439 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:55 am

Portastorm wrote:Regarding the info from my local NWSFO (Austin/San Antonio) that srainhoutx posted ... and thanks for that great and timely piece of info, srain! ... the snow events in Jan/Feb 1985 in Austin were awesome. I remember it well as we had two separate 2-4 inch snowfalls which literally shuut down the town for several days. Happened in a La Nina winter. Could the same be ahead? :wink: :ggreen:

I recall the Jan 1985 event. We had an ice storm in the Rio Grande Valley! :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#440 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jan 03, 2011 12:05 pm

southerngale wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z GFS also suggests a storm taking shape to our SW/W in the 240 hour time frame. With all the cold air in place via the GFS at that time, wintry weather breaks out and spreads across the Lone Star State.


Oh you've done it now. :lol:



Oh man. Srain has now posted a maybe, could be, who knows wintery weather event according to the 12z GFS in the Lone Star State.
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