Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Lane]

[Ivanhater]

Check out the 12z GFS.....Nothing but cold and stormy throughout the run.

January is going to have ample opportunities for snow events in the Deep south. This warm dry winter that was forecasted this La Nina is going to bust big time IMO.

[Ivanhater]

06 DGEX



You certainly don't see this every day

[Brent]

06 DGEX

LOL, the southeast would be shutdown til March if that happened.

From BMX(same storm the DGEX goes insane with there).

THE OTHER (POTENTIALLY MORE IMPORTANT) ASPECT OF THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS THAT IS PROVIDES A COLD AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY BEFORE THE
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR NOW IN THE PLACEMENT...
TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN OF MOISTURE
SPREADING INLAND. WHILE A PURELY THICKNESS-BASED CURSORY LOOK AT
THINGS MIGHT SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR
ANYTHING BUT RAIN...A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEALS A THERMAL
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW IN (AT LEAST) THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

NOW THAT THE ECMWF HAS JOINED THE GFS IN THE SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM...WE CAN START TO HONE IN ON SUNDAY AS THE PERIOD OF
HIGHEST POPS. AND GIVEN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND EERIE MODEL
AGREEMENT...I THINK WE HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO ADD AT LEAST
THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST. IF THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS
CONTINUES THE THOUGHT...THEN WE MAY ADD A LOW CONFIDENCE MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL.

[Brent]

From Oklahoma City this morning:

GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS... A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

[Ivanhater]

From Oklahoma City this morning:

GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS... A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

WOW

Something big is coming...Extreme cold looks to be a lock. A major snowstorm is on the table.

[northjaxpro]

Hello everyone! Yeah Ivanhater I glanced at the model guidance as well earlier today and folks, we may be in for a rude awakening in the coming days!

It appears that some of the most bitterly cold arctic air is poised to dive southward into the Eastern CONUS, possibly colder than the ones we experienced in December 2010. I think it looks very plausible that another major snowstorm/blizzard could be in the works within the next 7-10 days.

So it looks as though the negative AO and NAO will hold strong deep into January, therefore, it appears that the typical La Nina winter we all were expecting may not be realized for us here in the Deep South. We shall see. It is amazing how the weather flutuates, which makes it so fascintaing to montior of course.

[Portastorm]

Hey gang ... just as an fyi, we're going to try and discuss the general threat of next week's Arctic Outbreak to the "Siberian Express" thread below:

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=110199

Employing this switch, we we can have a discussion with members from all our states. When the event gets closer and we start looking at local impacts and local perspectives, then we can start to re-populate the Deep South/Texas winter thread/Southern Plains thread and others.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming ...

[Ivanhater]

Thanks for the heads up Porta!

This extreme and possible historic cold outbreak will not be regional...it grips almost the entire U.S!

We will continue to discuss the regional issues with this insane pattern coming up in this thread

Wow!

12z Euro out ...The cold air is just ridiculous I mean my God!

1065-1070 High sliding down from Canada

[Ivanhater]

Something that should be pointed out. The extreme cold air that is likely to spill into the U.S looks to be locked in. In other words, this is not a short-lived event with it warming up afterward.

As you can imagine, with cold air locked in place, and the models showing an active storm pattern across the South, the probability of snow across the south, and even along the Gulf coast is much higher than average.

I have a feeling some unusual places will be seeing snow this January. Looking at the pattern unfolding here, January could be one for the books folks.

[Snowluvr]

This is an exiting time for snow lovers all across Texas and the Southeast. I've been a cold weather freak for as long as I can remember and all my friends and family think I'm crazy for it. I remember the arctic outbreak of '89 and the superstorm of '93. I never thought I'd ever see anything like those two events again and now it seems like it's possible to see something similar to both in the next ten days! Man, I hope this thing plays out. Oh yeah, Thanks Ivan for the maps and updates. Keep em coming.

[Ivanhater]

The latest from James Spann and the ABC 33/40 blog:

NEXT WEEK: Our eyes are focused on the massive 1060 mb high the GFS develops over the Yukon next week. This represents the center of a brutally cold airmass that will move south in one way or another during the January 10-20 period. Combine that with an active southern stream that stays in place, and the door is certainly open for some winter weather mischief for parts of the Deep South along the way. Absolutely no way of resolving details right now, but be aware the pattern looks very cold and unsettled for the middle part of January.. so stay tuned.

[MississippiWx]

Ivan, I hope all of this works out. All of that cold air combined with an active Southern Stream has Deep South Snowstorm written all over it. I wouldn't mind experiencing that brutal cold being shown for a few days. After that, I might not be so thrilled! Very exciting stuff, though.

[LAwxrgal]

Not sure I can handle brutal cold. My pipes burst LAST YEAR with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens... and these temps are forecast to be colder??? In New Orleans, how much colder?

[Dean4Storms]

Going to be much model watching over the next couple of weeks for sure. Still not indicating the extreme cold digging as deep once east of the Miss. River. Looks like to this point the deeper cold heads toward TX. and modifies to the east.

[Brent]

Well lookie here, before the real cold gets here.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Ivanhater]

Tallahassee AFD..mentions coldest air of the season, which is pretty remarkable considering how cold it has been so far

THE
FCST FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK (WHICH IS BEYOND THE
TIMETABLE OF OUR CURRENT FCST) WILL BECOME VERY CHALLENGING...AS
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING WHAT WOULD LIKELY BE THE
STRONGEST AND COLDEST CANADIAN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH
MAY CROSS THE U.S BORDER AS A 1055-1065 MB RIDGE...AND THEN PLUNGE
SE THROUGH MONTANA THEN DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL HEADING (WHICH IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO
PROGNOSTICATE AT THIS POINT WHETHER IT WILL BE S...SSE...OR MORE
SE)...THIS AIR MASS COULD END UP BEING OUR COLDEST OF THE
SEASON...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

[Ivanhater]

Wow!

[Stormcenter]

So if this all pans out what kind of temperatures (highs and lows) are we "possibly" looking at for the deep south from the upper TX to AL coastline during this outbreak?

[Ntxw]

So if this all pans out what kind of temperatures (highs and lows) are we "possibly" looking at for the deep south from the upper TX to AL coastline during this outbreak?

Worst case scenario, 20s/30s for highs teens for lows for a day or two via the GFS, maybe longer.