Texas Winter 2010-2011

[HockeyTx82]

They must have made some new hires over here in Fort Worth. Their discussions have been much more informative compared to years past.

Maybe, but even the guys that have been there are being more detailed in their discussions at FWD. I think they just got their butts kicked pretty bad last year during the winter, so they're trying to give us a more detailed explanation of their forecasts so we at least are aware of the worst case scenario rather than being blindsided. And anyone who wasn't paying attention to this forum last year in DFW was blindsided a couple of times.

Thats the reason I signed up for this forum in the first place last year. FWD was producing vague and erroneous forecasts during the previous couple of winters. Before this I depended more on the Oklahoma City office for accurate winter weather advisories, but Fort Worth has improved alot.

You all should go over and visit the office. They do tours of the facility and you can meet all of them, at least the ones who are working at that time. I have to say after taking one myself I have a whole new level of respect for what they do over there, even more so than I did before. Weather forecasting is not a perfect science as we all know, especially in Texas, and while the big snow season of 2010 may have caught some of us off guard can you imagine the backlash if they had forecasted 12+" of snow and we got nothing!!! Just saying they have to have some sense of responsibility because when they hit the "panic" button in their office the whole area gets alerted and it is for real vs. what we talk about on here. I asked them about last winter and you should do so as well. I think we all learned quite a lot from it. I am not trying to call anyone out with my post, just putting up how I feel. Hope no one takes it the wrong way.

[DonWrk]

Finally I can join the discussion. Been looking for a place like this for a good while. Can't wait to see what progresses today.

[Portastorm]

After reading this mornings discussion out of Fort Worth, it would appear that the scenario they're depicting would bring more energy/moisture into the picture with the Pacific Coast ridge not being as strong. In order for the positively tilted SW US trough to get established, you would need a fairly strong Pacific Coast ridge to be intact. With the weaker ridge, more energy/moisture can come out of the Pacific thus bringing more chances of snow/ice (still cold but not bitterly cold) compared to just bitterly cold/dry conditions. Which of the scenarios do you want - snow/ice storms or a prolonged severe cold event ?? and please correct me if I'm wrong in my interpretation of this mornings discussion.

Orangeblood, as I understand it, I think you're spot on with your analysis. Personally I would prefer the former and not the latter. Why have sub-freezing cold and no snow or sleet?!

[Portastorm]

Finally I can join the discussion. Been looking for a place like this for a good while. Can't wait to see what progresses today.

Welcome to S2K and feel free to chime in as appropriate!

[DonWrk]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2011


OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A MASSIVE BUILD-UP OF ARCTIC AIR WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN CANADA
LATER THIS WEEK AND WILL EXPAND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE ARCTIC COLD OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE INITIAL BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE THE START
OF A PROLONGED STRETCH OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT MAY LAST
THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK. RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BEGIN PREPARING NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD WEATHER... THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.


Nothing too new here but one of the most extreme reports so far.

[natlib]

Good stuff from the San Angelo NWS this morning:

THE MAJORITY OF MY ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO WEST
CENTRAL TX. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND RESEMBLES THAT OF
PATTERNS PRECEDING OTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAPS ACROSS THE THE STATE
OF TX /MCFARLAND/. THE RIDGE OVER THE STATE OF AK WILL PROVIDE A
CROSS POLAR COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WHICH WILL TAP INTO VERY COLD
SIBERIAN AIR. THIS WILL RENDER MOS TEMPS ESSENTIALLY USELESS FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS OF THE PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL RELY HEAVILY
ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE PRESENCE OF ANY LOW CLOUD
COVER. I CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND
THAT COULD BE RATHER GENEROUS IF THE FRONT ARRIVES BY 12Z. BY
TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S IN MOST
AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS AIRMASS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED COLD SNAP AS THE
MODELS KEEP H85 TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THROUGH PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST/SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AS FAST AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ANY PRECIP
WOULD NOT LAST LONG. OF COURSE...WE ARE STILL LOOKING OUT BEYOND DAY
5 AND THE FORECAST COULD UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
FOR SEVERAL DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH EACH RUN.

[iorange55]

So I have been glued to the models for a long time now and I'm not anywhere close to knowing what I am actually talking about but I'll give out my opinion anyways.

It looks to me that no real record cold will happen, nothing below zero here. However I think it will be stronger than they think now. Possibly low teens or maybe even single digits for North Texas. Highs in the 20's for a couple days. Also I think we'll get snow sometime within the next two weeks It's hard to say when because it seems it hasn't locked on this far out, but i think we'll end up getting some fun out of this.

[gboudx]

Here's jeff's update as it pertains to this arctic weather:

Potential Arctic Outbreak:

Very cold air mass will be building over NW Canada late this week with potential delivery into the US late this weekend.

Upper level pattern will undergo significant amplification with a building ridge over Alaska and NW Canada and high latitude blocking downstream over eastern and central Canada. Extremely cold air mass now over northern Siberia (-60F to -80F) will begin to slide across the north pole and southward into NW Canada where building surface pressures will begin to brew a massive arctic high pressure cell. Models continue to advertise at least a 1060mb+ arctic high over NW Canada by late this weekend with a favorable upper level delivery pattern southward. Will taper the severity of this potential outbreak at least for the initial shot early next week. Bitter cold should enter the US via Montana Saturday and surge rapidly southward down the plains as the cold and dense air mass dams up against the Rockies. Shallow arctic air masses tend to move southward faster than models predict and this will need to be watched for a faster arrival than currently expected. Arctic boundary should reach TX Monday and clear the coast Tuesday with very cold air spreading across the entire state. Expect lows well into the 20’s by Wednesday morning and highs only in the 30’s and 40’s for the middle of next week. Appears that moisture may make an attempt at spreading into the cold air mass toward the end of next week or the following weekend. GFS shows a secondary strong surge arriving around the 16th of the month with several days at or below freezing. In fact the GFS guidance for DFW shows temperatures below freezing from the 12th to the 20th during the entire period. At this point this does not appear to be a historic outbreak (such as Dec 1983 or Dec 1989), but possibly as severe as last January. The real bad outbreaks in the past have come in waves with each surge building on the previous surge and keeping sub-freezing temperatures locked in place for days and days. The models are showing this “surge” type pattern in the extended ranges…the questions remain as to how much cold air comes southward and does it all dump at once for a quick hit or do we get front after front keeping the cold air locked in place for several days.

[txagwxman]

I don't see below 0F DFW...maybe 14-15F.

[gboudx]

They must have made some new hires over here in Fort Worth. Their discussions have been much more informative compared to years past.

I'm pretty sure the Cavanaugh guy is new(within last year). His discussions are always very detailed and informative.

[WacoWx]

about what time can we expect the new round of models to come out?

[iorange55]

about what time can we expect the new round of models to come out?

GFS 12z is coming in right now. It shows a 1052 so far out to the 126hr and also a weaker storm beforehand which I have been told is a good thing.

[srainhoutx]

about what time can we expect the new round of models to come out?

GFS 12z is coming in right now. It shows a 1052 so far out to the 126hr and also a weaker storm beforehand which I have been told is a good thing.

N Pacific charts show 1055+ heading down.

[DonWrk]

Could someone tell me which models are are best for temps and precip?

[iorange55]

Definitely looks like the one thing that is just about a lock is the first surge of cold coming in Monday. Next on the list is trying to figure out how cold it will get.



12z looks mighty Chilly.

[Ntxw]

1060mb in Alberta With yet another big high behind it.

[iorange55]

1060mb in Alberta With yet another big high behind it.

Lol, this 12z run sure likes to spoil us

[Ntxw]

Wow, 12z is definitely puttin 0 degrees at play again lol

GFS puts north Texas at 180+ hours at or below freezing. That's almost an entire week.

[orangeblood]

Wow, 12z is definitely puttin 0 degrees at play again lol

GFS puts north Texas at 180+ hours at or below freezing. That's almost an entire week.

This is now several runs in a row (minus what appears to be a bogus January 3rd/18Z run) depicting temps below freezing for several days in north Texas. The AFD's put out this afternoon should have a different tone to them across South Texas. They were still fairly conservative this morning. With the magnitude of the high pressure forecasted to come down the lee side of the Rockies and the fresh snow cover laid down this weekend across the central plains, I don't think low single digits are out of the realm of possibilities across the DFW area.

[iorange55]

Now we just need a little bit snow to fall so we have something nice to look at for a week.