Texas Winter 2010-2011

[DonWrk]

Wow, 12z is definitely puttin 0 degrees at play again lol

GFS puts north Texas at 180+ hours at or below freezing. That's almost an entire week.

Could you explain to me how you read the model to know what the temps are going to be over a period of time? Thanks.

[Ntxw]

Wow, 12z is definitely puttin 0 degrees at play again lol

GFS puts north Texas at 180+ hours at or below freezing. That's almost an entire week.

Could you explain to me how you read the model to know what the temps are going to be over a period of time? Thanks.

At the 850 level charts, look at the lines. The blue lines (0 and -10, -20 etc) are celsius. Convert them. 0 = 32, -10 is about 14 or 15 degrees (850 isn't surface temps but generally gives you a good idea). The further you are behind the line the colder it is, and the more runs you are the longer it is based on the time between frames. Make a guestimate. I use a meteogram for precise raw numbers. There is a website called twisterdata if you want to see it visually but may take a bit longer for current data to load.

http://www.twisterdata.com/

Select the model you want to see, choose temperature > select surface temp, wind, mslp

[txagwxman]

DFW won't hit 0F next week...mark it down.

[Ntxw]

DFW won't hit 0F next week...mark it down.

That's not a fair bet!

The outer suburbs could certainly make a run at 5-10 . It'll be hard nowadays to get to 0 at DFW even in an event like 83 or 89 with all of the concrete around these days.

[txagwxman]

Ha ha...yep...DFW is a big concrete jungle, may never even get below 10F again.

[Tireman4]

Ha ha...yep...DFW is a big concrete jungle, may never even get below 10F again.

Shoot Houston may never see 5 degrees again...or for that matter 10....

[richtrav]

The easiest way to tell what temperatures are predicted is to go here:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=kdfw

Portastorm, thanks for posting the discussion from Ft Worth, that's one of the most useful discos I've seen in a long time.

And to the someone who posted a while back that the historical Arctic outbreaks occur in waves that's not always the case. It was true in 1899, 1983 and 1989 but not so in 1962 or 1951.

[Tireman4]

Ha ha...yep...DFW is a big concrete jungle, may never even get below 10F again.

Shoot Houston may never see 5 degrees again...or for that matter 10....

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This afternoon's AFD's from the NWS office accross the state will be very interesting. Maybe NWS Brownsville will finally get on board?

[Tejas89]

I live near DFW airport which was "outlying" 20 years ago. haha. Seems like it's consistently 5-7 deg's warmer in the mornings (regardless of time of year) than the "new" outlying areas - wherever that is now.

[Ntxw]

I live near DFW airport which was "outlying" 20 years ago. haha. Seems like it's consistently 5-7 deg's warmer in the mornings (regardless of time of year) than the "new" outlying areas - wherever that is now.

I live very close to it too. Sometimes I wonder if it's higher on purpose conspiracy maybe?! . Often times my thermometer is a good 2-5 degrees colder.

[txagwxman]

IAH has warmed up more. Was very rural in the 1970s and 1980s...now reads about 2-4F warmer. Tomball airport (DWH) is a better proxy on what Bush IAH used to be.

[Tireman4]

I live near DFW airport which was "outlying" 20 years ago. haha. Seems like it's consistently 5-7 deg's warmer in the mornings (regardless of time of year) than the "new" outlying areas - wherever that is now.

I live very close to it too. Sometimes I wonder if it's higher on purpose conspiracy maybe?! . Often times my thermometer is a good 2-5 degrees colder.

Yep, I agree with you two. I live 5-6 miles from IAH. Easily 2-3 degrees cooler than the airport at my location.

[cperez1594]

Brownsville NWS seems to know what is coming!

[Ntxw]

Btw the Canadian has sneaux for N TX, Red River to Waco around 156-180 time frame in the cold. 540 line well south into central Texas, maybe a good ratio snow.

[Kelarie]

Well I am in Texarkana and we just got a Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Here is part of it.

...

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR
STATE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK. A
COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPILL DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
AIRMASS PROMISES TO PROVIDE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE WINTER SEASON THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE
MADE IN ANTICIPATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

[Tireman4]

Btw the Canadian has sneaux for N TX, Red River to Waco around 156-180 time frame in the cold. 540 line well south into central Texas, maybe a good ratio snow.

Geaux Sneaux!!!

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Same deal with Addison airport. But it's been frequently referred to as the heat island right? More concrete and build up the warmer the area gets close to the ground. Temps out here in Frisco and Mckinney are always cooler than they are down in Addison or DFW. Check out the temps at Collin County Airport or Denton. Sometimes as much as a 5 degree difference. Particularly in the summer.

[Ntxw]

Same deal with Addison airport. But it's been frequently referred to as the heat island right. More concrete and build up the warmer the area gets close to the ground. Temps out here in Frisco and Mckinney are always cooler than they are down in Addison or DFW. Check out the temps at Collin County Airport or Denton. Sometimes as much as a 5 degree difference. Particularly in the summer.

I'm not surprised it's not a unison temperature all around, micro climates. It's just sometimes it doesn't make much sense. I remember once in the morning it was 32-33 both Dallas and Fort Worth proper but dfw was alone sitting at 36. That looks fishy to me. It hasn't been that bad lately but it has in the past.

[txagwxman]

Brownsville NWS seems to know what is coming!

BRO WAY TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT!