Texas Winter 2010-2011

[HockeyTx82]

I have heard that the models sometimes do not latch onto cold very well in terms of temps and usually temps are colder then what models sometimes say. Anyone think that might be the case with this system? I guess really the only way to know is when it starts moving down.

[Ntxw]

I have heard that the models sometimes do not latch onto cold very well in terms of temps and usually temps are colder then what models sometimes say. Anyone think that might be the case with this system? I guess really the only way to know is when it starts moving down.

We'll have to watch the air over Alaska and Canada. This won't be a one shot thing, it's going to come in waves so it will be difficult to pinpoint when the coldest air will be. As noted the ECWMF holds tremendous air in Canada in it's latest run even after the initial surge next week and where that goes has the potential to add on the assault. If things hold's true, it's not 1 or 2 days below freezing, FW mentioned it today, the duration could be the real killer.

BTW the 18z GFS shows post frontal snow much like the EURO. The cold air will squeeze what is left in NTX. If this verifies, the ingredients are coming together like glue!

[srainhoutx]

HGX just issued an update forecast for my area. They are suggesting a high 40 on Tuesday. Mind you, we are talking 7-8 days out. That is an impressive statement for our very conservative NWS office at that range.

[northtxboy]

well guys it look's like we will get the cold weather next week,,but,,I beleave north texas maybe looking at colder temps than what people are saying,,I can handle the cold but I want some snow!!!!!!!!!!

[DFW Stormwatcher]

LOL, no lacking for details in this afternoons FWD discussion. They wrote a book for next week, I love it.

[Metalicwx220]

Why don't yall choose the forecast model that is always the most accurate and go with that? One thing you can say is that it will be cold next week.

[DonWrk]

Just updated with a high of 31 on Tuesday here north of Dallas.

[Tireman4]

Why don't yall choose the forecast model that is always the most accurate and go with that? One thing you can say is that it will be cold next week.

Because they all have their moments of being right and being wrong....LOL

[iorange55]

Wow stronger high is building after the first. This looks fun.





After day 8 it doesn't look like it handles all the cold air well. Looks like it gets all funky, but the important part to me is the strong high's

[northtxboy]

I think this event is going to be colder than anyone is thinking

[HockeyTx82]

LOL, no lacking for details in this afternoons FWD discussion. They wrote a book for next week, I love it.

Dunn is awesome, that met who wrote the that writeup. I met him last Feb. up here in Denton at storm spoting class. He was teaching us how to read radar signatures. He was very cool to talk with after class. Of course it could be his wife but I don't think she signs her name like that, I think she uses a number instead. Either way both are awesome people.

[Turtle]

I live along I-20 East Texas. Take a look at this!!

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.

[ndale]

We all seem to agree the cold will be here but what about precipitation, the 18z gfs looks dry for Tx during most of the cold. Does anyone have any thoughts on what will happen with precipitation?

[orangeblood]

Wow stronger high is building after the first. This looks fun.





After day 8 it doesn't look like it handles all the cold air well. Looks like it gets all funky, but the important part to me is the strong high's

It could really get fun if we can get a shortwave to sneak in through that ridge on the west coast.

[southerngale]

NWS LCH afternoon mention (LCH covers extreme SE TX, btw... where I live)

MUCH COLDER AIR REMAINS PROGGED TO
RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER WITH
HIGHS JUST BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE 30S. STAY
TUNED...


It doesn't sound very impressive, but it's still pretty far out and they're usually quite conservative.

[orangeblood]

We all seem to agree the cold will be here but what about precipitation, the 18z gfs looks dry for Tx during most of the cold. Does anyone have any thoughts on what will happen with precipitation?

I think it will all depend on how strong that West Coast ridge ends up being. If it's not as strong as some models are depicting, then we won't be as cold but we'll have more opportunities for storms moving across with more moisture to work with. Now after looking over past analogs, I have noticed that it's usually the front end and the back end of outbreaks like this that you get you significant winter storms. Once that high pressure gets established, it's very hard to budge and is extremely dry. You would probably have to wait until you can get a strong enough system to cut underneath the high pressure, but usually that strong of a storm will take the cold air with it.

Those along the Gulf Coast and extreme South Texas can get storms out of this kind of setup because of two things: a) the storm track being shunted so far south and b) the close proximity to a very significant moisture source, the Gulf.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Frank just showed a nice graphic of what he thinks will happen.

Highs next friday and saturday near freezing with lows in the teens.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow stronger high is building after the first. This looks fun.


After day 8 it doesn't look like it handles all the cold air well. Looks like it gets all funky, but the important part to me is the strong high's

Took the words right out of my mouth, i just finished looking over the 18z and it looks like this is legit folks. After day 8 it basically 'loses' the high pressure over Western Canada. Not sure why since the snowpack wont go anywhere. I think the monster behind it will be the real deal as well. I think we should start pointing our attention to the moisture department now.

[Turtle]

From Austin/San Antonio NWS

BIG CHANGES TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING
VERY COLD AIR. LOWS WILL BE 20S MOST PLACES AND HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S.

&&

[txagwxman]

Frank just showed a nice graphic of what he thinks will happen.

Highs next friday and saturday near freezing with lows in the teens.

And so the hype begins...is that Frank Billingsley?