Texas Winter 2010-2011

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Frank just showed a nice graphic of what he thinks will happen.

Highs next friday and saturday near freezing with lows in the teens.

And so the hype begins...is that Frank Billingsley?

Yep, Frank Billingsley. I believe he showed a graphic of the Mac Farland signature but i dont know too much about it. Actually have the article someone linked earlier on another tab

[Turtle]

At least one news station here in the arklatex is showing the super cold possibility.

[Ntxw]

We all seem to agree the cold will be here but what about precipitation, the 18z gfs looks dry for Tx during most of the cold. Does anyone have any thoughts on what will happen with precipitation?

I think it will all depend on how strong that West Coast ridge ends up being. If it's not as strong as some models are depicting, then we won't be as cold but we'll have more opportunities for storms moving across with more moisture to work with. Now after looking over past analogs, I have noticed that it's usually the front end and the back end of outbreaks like this that you get you significant winter storms. Once that high pressure gets established, it's very hard to budge and is extremely dry. You would probably have to wait until you can get a strong enough system to cut underneath the high pressure, but usually that strong of a storm will take the cold air with it.

Those along the Gulf Coast and extreme South Texas can get storms out of this kind of setup because of two things: a) the storm track being shunted so far south and b) the close proximity to a very significant moisture source, the Gulf.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Today's ECMWF and 18z GFS has a storm (of course not strong at this point too far out) gathering behind the cold front laying down snow cover in North Texas next Mon/Tues. UKMET does the same thing virtually. I know it's early but the hints are that there will be system bringing down this cold air.

[txagwxman]

Frank just showed a nice graphic of what he thinks will happen.

Highs next friday and saturday near freezing with lows in the teens.

And so the hype begins...is that Frank Billingsley?

Yep, Frank Billingsley. I believe he showed a graphic of the Mac Farland signature but i dont know too much about it. Actually have the article someone linked earlier on another tab

Well I am selling teens in Houston, it won't get to 19F at IAH.

[Turtle]

I found this on another forum. It's the 12gfs though, not 18gfs.


Much of Texas will see temps below freezing!

[txagwxman]

Day 7 Model consensus (GFS ens, GFS op, and the ECMWF) combined. Typically more accurate than any of the other three models. UKMET not included.

[Snowluvr]

Well I am selling teens in Houston, it won't get to 19F at IAH.[/quote]
Uh... is that a daytime high of 19F or an overnight low

[Ntxw]

Well I am selling teens in Houston, it won't get to 19F at IAH.
Uh... is that a daytime high of 19F or an overnight low

Low, if that were a high we'd all be in BIG trouble.

18Z dgex looks fun for next Monday.

[Portastorm]

Alex, I'll take the 18z dgex for twenty, please!

[jasons2k]

Well I am selling teens in Houston, it won't get to 19F at IAH.

I am confused - u think it will or not? Thanks

[Ntxw]

Well I am selling teens in Houston, it won't get to 19F at IAH.

I am confused - u think it will or not? Thanks

I don't know for sure, but I'm thinking he's saying teens for the Houston area, but not 19 for the record at IAH, guessing Houston proper.

[DonWrk]

Question. What has differed in the models from yesterday when this looked like it might be one for the ages? Or is that still the consensus but everyone is just staying quite now?

[txagwxman]

It won't get to 19F at IAH...>20F.

[jasons2k]

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/met ... 65898.html

Arctic blast set to blanket region
Houston area could soon see lows in the teens
By ERIC BERGER
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Jan. 4, 2011, 7:21PM

Texas may feel a lot like Alaska next week.

Forecasters say a blast of Arctic air should begin filtering into the Houston region by late Monday and continue doing so for several days. It should be the city's coldest spell of this winter, by far, likely bringing a hard freeze.

"Even though it's a little too early to predict overnight lows this far out, there is some potential that temperatures could fall as low as the low-to-mid 20s over the immediate coast," said Fred Schmude, a meteorologist with ImpactWeather, a private forecasting company in Houston.

"Just inland from the coast temperatures as low as the teens and low 20s will be possible."

The coldest days and nights should come between Jan. 12 through Jan. 17. Schmude said there's a chance of light snow or freezing rain during the cool down.

The coldest night of winter so far this year, Dec. 27, saw temperatures fall to just 29 degrees.

If temperatures fall into the low 20s the hard freeze could threaten more than plants and pets. Exposed pipes could be at risk as well.

Last January, when overnight lows dipped to 20 degrees, there were sporadic incidents of burst pipes around Houston.

It's too early to say whether temperatures will get quite that cold again.

eric.berger@chron.com

[srainhoutx]

Should be an interesting 00Z suite. I'm impressed with the signals (EPO/NAO/AO) as well as a pulse from the MJO. We have a lot of fine Pro Mets on our board. Perhaps they will chime in.

[southerngale]

It won't get to 19F at IAH...>20F.

Granted I'm not at IAH, but I had mid-20s just last week and have been in the 20s numerous times so far this winter, so low 20s, while obviously very cold, isn't crazy cold like I first thought this might be. I guess I could compare what IAH got down to on those mornings, though. It's always warmer down at the airport here, too. (BPT)


And my goal isn't breaking records... I just want it to be cold enough to get some snow and for it to stick around for a few days. That's my order and I will take all my business to whichever model can provide that.

[vbhoutex]

It won't get to 19F at IAH...>20F.

The problem with using iah as a comparison for most of metro Houston is that it is usually warmer than most other areas around it. I have seen more than one knowledgeable person say that the current placement of the instruments needs to be reevaluated/changed due to their proximity to heating sources and concrete. I am consistently 3 or more degrees colder than iah and it used to be the other way up until 5 or so years ago when additional runways were installed. I have already had temps down to 24f here at the house near I10 and Gessner.

[gboudx]

Larry Cosgrove's perspective.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ary-5-2011

[Ntxw]

Looks like we gave up on this weekend's storm too quickly. The GFS is MUCH colder, though not enough for snow yet, it is darn close. The 0c isotherm is at the red river while moisture is kicking up from the south Texas. Awfully close. It's still only Tuesday. We should be in the NAM's realm tomorrow for further analysis.

[Dustan78]

Looks like we gave up on this weekend's storm too quickly. The GFS is MUCH colder, though not enough for snow yet, it is darn close. The 0c isotherm is at the red river while moisture is kicking up from the south Texas. Awfully close. It's still only Tuesday. We should be in the NAM's realm tomorrow for further analysis.

That would be great to usher in the cold!! It seems like all the DFW local guys have bought into the cold next week, but they don't seem to be committed to how cold it could be, seems channel 11 is the closest to what is being said around here. I am keeping my fingers crossed that this will turn out for the greater good of all us winter lovers!