Caribbean - Central America Weather

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Sun-7pmET Mon) for
Mon Jan 03 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.1C 90F (low 19.7C 68F)
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.8C 86F (low 20.2C 68F)
Crown Point, Tobago 30.3C 86F (low 21.0C 70F)

Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 84F (low 21.4C 70F)
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.8C 86F (low 21.4C 70F)
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.8C 86F 0.2mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.4C 85F 1.6mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 25.8C 78F 25.1mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.9C 86F 9.0mm ( rain to 8am)
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 23.6C 75F 47.0mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.0C 81F
VC Bird, Antigua 26.9C 80F 0.1mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 26.7C 80F 4.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 27.1C 81F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.8C 87F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 29.3C 85F 4.7mm
Havana, Cuba 26.4C 79F 0.2mm
Key West, Florida 23.9C 75F
Miami, Florida 26.7C 80F
Nassau, Bahamas 25.0C 77F
Hamilton, Bermuda 19.8C 68F 2.5mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 29.3C 85F 0.1mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.4C 86F
Flamingo, Bonaire 29.4C 85F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST MON JAN 3 2011

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPEAR OFFSHORE IN THE
ATLANTIC MOVING SOUTHWEST...BUT SO FAR HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN
SPRINKLES. MOIST LAYER IS LESS THAN 4 THOUSAND FEET THICK AND
CANNOT SUPPORT MUCH DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION A STABLE LAYER
EXISTS FROM 5 THOUSAND TO 10 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS DEEPEN THE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND THIS LAYER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREFORE RAISED POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ON
THE WINDWARD FLANKS OF THE LUQUILLO RANGE AND OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO IN GENERAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT ONLY BY A SMALL
AMOUNT...IN KEEPING WITH INCREMENTAL CHANGES TOWARD A FINAL
FORECAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...INCREASE FOR A SHORT WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH
UNTIL LARGER SWELL ENTER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. UPDATED GRIDS
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIOR GRIDS STILL HOLDING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHWRS ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST
04/12Z. NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 15K FEET. IN PUERTO RICO...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH 04/14Z.

[Macrocane]

The northerly winds brought a relief from the unusually high temperatures of the last few days in El Salvador and Honduras, here are today (January 3 2010) highs, better late than never :

Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.6°C/79.9°F
Belize city, Belize 28°C/82°F
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C/75.2°F
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.7°C/67.5°F
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C/88°F
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C/87.1°F
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.7°C/62.1°F
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.7°C/96.3°F
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C/66°F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C/79°F
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C/93°F
Estelí, Nicaragua 22.1°C/71.8°F
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C/88°F
San Jose, Costa Rica 22°C/71.6°F
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.6°C/49.3°F
Panama city, Panama 30.2°C/86.4°F

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers are expected today in the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST TUE JAN 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SURGE
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY...AS AN OLD BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA/VIEQUES AND THE VI.
AS A RESULT...AN INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THESE
AREAS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
SUSTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND...A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES FARTHER EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE
WEEK. IN ADDITION...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS MOST AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS...TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX...TJSJ WITH
PASSING SHOWERS. BROKEN STRATO-CU THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS OUTSIDE
OF RAIN 4-8KFT...AND CIGS NEAR 1500FT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 71 81 72 / 70 60 60 40
STT 84 72 83 74 / 70 50 50 30

[Gustywind]

Yesterday Guadeloupe has received nice amounts of rain reaching 80 to 100 millimeters in some areas.

[Macrocane]

Today is another windy day in Central America and this morning was cooler than yesterday morning in most of the countries (except for Nicaragua). These are the lows registered this morning:

Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.7°C/62.1°F
Belize city, Belize 18°C/64°F
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10.9°C/51.6°F
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.1°C/34.0°F
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.7°C/60.3°F
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.4°C/47.1°F
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.4°C/65.1°F
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C/50°F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C/57°F
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C/75°F
Estelí, Nicaragua 13.3°C/55.9°F
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C/73°F
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.5°C/58.1°F
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.8°C/37.0°F
Panama city, Panama 20.7°C

[cycloneye]

Climate 2010 Review in Puerto Rico / U.S Virgin Islands

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=2010_review

Annual Weather Summary:
2010 began with a period of unusually warm weather across the local islands. On January 2nd, 2010, the temperature soared to 89°F at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan, which surpassed the previous record of 87°F for the date (set back in 1996). Two days later, on January 4th, 2010, a new record high temperature for the date was also set when the temperature reached 88°F. However this warm weather did not last, and by the middle of the month, unseasonably cool temperatures were observed. On January 15th, 2010, the high temperature of 77°F at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan represented the coolest high temperature ever recorded for that date (the previous record was 78°F, which was recorded back in 1962). However, even with this cool period of weather over the middle portion of the month, January 2010 ended 1.4 degrees above normal in San Juan, while temperatures across the USVI ended very near normal. In terms of precipitation, January 2010 ended as the wettest January ever recorded at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan. By the end of the month, a total of 11.07 inches of rainfall accumulated at the airport, which was approximately 4 inches shy of the all time record of 15.47 inches for the San Juan Area, which was recorded in 1937.

Throughout the month of February, unusually warm and dry weather prevailed across the local islands. By the end of the month, February 2010 ranked as the warmest February since 1898 and the 11th driest February across the San Juan Area. The average temperature for the month was 80.0 degrees; which was 3.1 degrees above normal.

During the first week of March, a cold front stalled across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from the evening of March 5th through early March 8th. New daily record precipitation totals for both the airports in San Juan and on Saint Thomas were recorded with this event. In addition, during the same time frame, the high temperature of 74°F recorded March 7th, 2010, represented the second coolest high temperature ever recorded at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan.

April 2010 was above normal in terms of temperature, and slightly below normal, in terms of precipitation, across the local islands. The average temperature in San Juan was 1.7 degrees above normal, and the monthly rainfall was 0.25 inches below normal at the airport. Towards the end of the month, the mercury reached 93°F and 94°F in San Juan on April 27th and 28th, tying the previous records for those dates (recorded in 1992 and 1978 respectively). Additionally, the low temperature at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan fell to only 80°F early on the morning of April 23rd, 2010, which surpassed the previous record warm minimum temperature for the date of 78°F set back in 1987. In addition, April 23rd now marks the earliest date on record that the temperature has not fallen below 80°F in San Juan.

May 2010 was well above normal in terms of precipitation across much of the region, with the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport receiving 7.23 inches more rainfall than 30-year normal. This surplus in rainfall made May 2010 the 4th wettest May on record at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan.

By June, the first strong tropical wave of the season brought very heavy rainfall and cool temperatures to the region. Widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches were observed across eastern and southeastern sections of Puerto Rico during this event, while the heaviest rainfall accumulated across the US Virgin Islands, Culebra and Vieques. In addition, both the Cyril E. King airport on Saint Thomas and the Christiansted airport on Saint Croix recorded their wettest 3-day period ever for the month of June with this event. Moreover, the high temperatures of 82°F and 83°F on Saint Thomas for the 20th and 19th of the month respectively, were the coolest high temperatures ever recorded on those dates.

Days after, during the late afternoon of Thursday, July 1st, 2010, several reports of very strong winds in the vicinity of the Mayaguez Airport were received. An observer on duty at the airport reported that he had measured winds of approximately 40 knots (44 mph), with a sudden gust of 72 knots (80 mph), during this event. These strong winds were observed without the presence of a funnel cloud, tornado, or hail. Given the data available, and the reports from the field, this wind event could be classified as a wet mini-microburst.

August 30th-31st, the passage of Hurricane Earl to the northeast of the local islands broke several additional rainfall records across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For the 24-hour period ending at midnight on August 30th, new rainfall records were established at the airport in San Juan (3.52 inches), at the Christiansted Airport on Saint Croix (1.91 inches) and at the Cyril E. King Airport on Saint Thomas (3.02 inches).

This wetter pattern continued through October. Very impressive rainfall amounts accumulated across the islands during the five day period, which began on October 4th and ended on October 8th. This rainfall was associated with the passage of a tropical wave that eventually became Subtropical Depression Seventeen on the morning of Wednesday October 6th. This system then transitioned into Hurricane Otto on the afternoon of October 8th. Although the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico remained well to the southeast and south of the tropical storm wind field, the distant rain bands which formed Otto’s tail impacted the local area for many days, pulling moist and unstable tropical air northward across the islands. Thanks to the record rainfall that accumulated with the tail of moisture feeding into Hurricane Otto, October 2010 was the wettest October on record at the Cyril E. King Airport on Saint Thomas. In addition, the 16.20 inches of rainfall that accumulated over the month represented the 3rd wettest month on record at the airport since 1953.

By the end of 2010, a cool and drier air mass combined with clear skies and light winds, resulted in new record low temperatures across the U.S. Virgin Islands over the weekend of December 3rd, 2010. New record low temperatures were established at the Christiansted Airport on Saint Croix for the mornings of December 2nd – 5th, 2010. At the Cyril E. King Airport on Saint Thomas, new record low temperatures were established on both December 3rd and December 5th, 2010. Days after, a cold front brought persistent periods of light to moderate rainfall across much of northern Puerto Rico beginning the evening of December 14th, 2010 and continuing throughout the day of December 15th, 2010. Due to this persistent rainfall and thick cloud cover, the temperature peaked at only 76°F in San Juan on Wednesday, December 15th, 2010. This marked the coolest day in the San Juan Metro Area for December 15th since 1898, and the coolest day in San Juan since March 7th, 2010, when the temperature reached only 74°F at the airport. As a result of the impressive rainfall that accumulated over the course of the year, 2010 ended as the wettest year on record across the entire San Juan Metro Area and second wettest year at the Cyril E. King Airport on Saint Thomas. In the end, a total of 89.51 inches of rainfall accumulated at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan; approximately 2 inches more than the previous record for the metro area of 87.55 inches, that was recorded in 1931.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST TUE JAN 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL
MAINTAIN THE NERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN A MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INVADE PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERWARDS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC MIGRATES TO THE CENTRAL ATLC
ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTH
AMERICA/WESTERN ATLANTIC. CURRENT RUN OF THE HIGH RES MODEL(WRF)
SHOWS POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES FORMING AND DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES...WITH BKN
CLD DECK OF 4-6KFT AND BREEZY ENE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS...THROUGH AT
LEAST 05/16Z. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS TKPK AND TISX...WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES IN QUICK PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACH THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THAT
REASON...WE MAINTAIN IN EFFECT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH
OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 80 70 81 / 50 50 40 40
STT 71 82 73 84 / 50 50 40 30

[Macrocane]

That was a nice weather summary for 2010, I love climatology so I always enjoy those kind of readings

[tropicana]

That was a nice weather summary for 2010, I love climatology so I always enjoy those kind of readings

me too thanks!

im very sick tonite, so i cant do the report, but Le Raizet, Guadeloupe continues to be affected by a band of intense rainfall, today in the 12 hours to 7pmET, 75 mm fell, with several thunderstorms, and then combine that with the 114mm in the 24 hours previous to 7amET.
Incredible

[cycloneye]

That was a nice weather summary for 2010, I love climatology so I always enjoy those kind of readings

me too thanks!

im very sick tonite, so i cant do the report, but Le Raizet, Guadeloupe continues to be affected by a band of intense rainfall, today in the 12 hours to 7pmET, 75 mm fell, with several thunderstorms, and then combine that with the 114mm in the 24 hours previous to 7amET.
Incredible

Justin,be well very soon. The northern part of that disturbance may reach parts of Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST TUE JAN 4 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCREASING TONIGHT...AS THE REMNANT OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT SOME
AFFECTED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AFFECTS MAINLY THE SOUTH
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. MADE CHANGE TO FORECAST GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES...WITH BKN
CLOUD DECK OF 4-6KFT AND BREEZY ENE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS UP TO 10
KFT...THROUGH AT LEAST 05/06Z. AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE INCREASING AS
INVERTED TROUGH PASSES SOUTH OF AREA AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...ESPCLY TISX...TNCM AND TKPK.
BUT ALSO TJSJ AND TJBQ AND TJMZ AFT 05/10Z. MOST MTNS OBSCURED
THROUGH 06/00Z IN PR AND USVI.

[Gustywind]

That was a nice weather summary for 2010, I love climatology so I always enjoy those kind of readings

me too thanks!

im very sick tonite, so i cant do the report, but Le Raizet, Guadeloupe continues to be affected by a band of intense rainfall, today in the 12 hours to 7pmET, 75 mm fell, with several thunderstorms, and then combine that with the 114mm in the 24 hours previous to 7amET.
Incredible

Justin,be well very soon. The northern part of that disturbance may reach parts of Puerto Rico.

Absolutely! Numerous floodings have been reported, and citizens are shocked by the poor job of our Pro Mets of Meteo-France GUADELOUPE. Maybe a lack of clear and pertinent informations from the medias and METEO-FRANCE... have created confusion on the island! 180millimeters have reported at Sainte-ROSE between yesterday8AM from today 8AM.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A wet day here. Gustywind,how are things weatherwise this morning in the butterfly island?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST WED JAN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...

ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE MID ATLANTIC AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD MID
LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK FOR PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.

SOUTHERN PORTION OF COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PASS SAFELY NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES
WITH A SHEAR LINE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AT LEAST THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA START THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AS
YESTERDAYS FORECASTER POINTED OUT...LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
SHOWING POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES FORMING AS LOCAL AREA STUCK IN THE
COL. WITH WINDS VEERING IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND A DEEP WESTERLY
WIND FLOW...SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PAN OUT IT WILL BE A REVERSAL OF
NORMAL DEVELOPMENT SINCE ANY DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEK WILL OCCUR ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE ISLANDS.
JET DOES TAKE A DIP LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND CLOSER TO REGION
LATE THIS WEEK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK PVA DOES EXIST...BUT
AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT SEE ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING...
HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE AS THE EVENT EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECK BTW 3-6KFT...AND GENERAL ENE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS UP
TO 10K FT THROUGH AT LEAST 05/12Z. BRIEF AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO PASSING
CLDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THROUGH 05/15Z AS INVERTED
TROUGH AND WITH ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LVL CLOUDINESS MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
TIL 05/11Z AT TJSJ...TISX...TIST... TNCM AND TKPK. MTN TOP OBSCR
PSBL DUE TO PASSING SHRA OVR ERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AT LEAST
TIL 05/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. STILL SEEING BORDERLINE REPORTS THAT MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SO WILL EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 70 81 71 / 60 40 40 10
STT 82 73 84 75 / 50 30 30 20

[Macrocane]

Good morning! I hope that tropicana is better today and friends from the islands are dry.

In the last 4 days El Salvador has experienced 1 earthquake per day fortunately they have been moderate and have not caused any damage. A summary of the earthquakes with date, time and magnitude:

January 2 08:11 Magnitude 4.0
January 3 18:49 Magnitude 5.3
January 4 20:10 Magnitude 4.4
January 5 02:59 Magnitude 4.3

[Gustywind]

Good morning. A wet day here. Gustywind,how are things weatherwise this morning in the butterfly island?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST WED JAN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...

ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE MID ATLANTIC AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD MID
LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK FOR PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.

SOUTHERN PORTION OF COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PASS SAFELY NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES
WITH A SHEAR LINE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AT LEAST THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA START THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AS
YESTERDAYS FORECASTER POINTED OUT...LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
SHOWING POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES FORMING AS LOCAL AREA STUCK IN THE
COL. WITH WINDS VEERING IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND A DEEP WESTERLY
WIND FLOW...SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PAN OUT IT WILL BE A REVERSAL OF
NORMAL DEVELOPMENT SINCE ANY DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEK WILL OCCUR ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE ISLANDS.
JET DOES TAKE A DIP LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND CLOSER TO REGION
LATE THIS WEEK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK PVA DOES EXIST...BUT
AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT SEE ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING...
HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE AS THE EVENT EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECK BTW 3-6KFT...AND GENERAL ENE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS UP
TO 10K FT THROUGH AT LEAST 05/12Z. BRIEF AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO PASSING
CLDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THROUGH 05/15Z AS INVERTED
TROUGH AND WITH ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LVL CLOUDINESS MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
TIL 05/11Z AT TJSJ...TISX...TIST... TNCM AND TKPK. MTN TOP OBSCR
PSBL DUE TO PASSING SHRA OVR ERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AT LEAST
TIL 05/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. STILL SEEING BORDERLINE REPORTS THAT MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SO WILL EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 70 81 71 / 60 40 40 10
STT 82 73 84 75 / 50 30 30 20

Hi Luis thanks for this wink, but things are worrrying and saying pretty sad is purely an euphemisma! Yesterday was a nightmare for many reasons...
Guadeloupe has suffered from these nasty floodings yesterday afternoon! Impressive values of rain have been reported since Sunday in some areas. Orange code have been requiered since this morning, schools are closed in some localities of the island Guadeloupe (Pointe-A-Pitre, Abymes, Moule, Sainte-Rose, Le Moule, Gosier). But that's was awfull to have this info at only 6am (from the radio) when pupills are already waiting for theirs teachers at school!
Troubles between the authority, the medias, and the poor job of Meteo-France gaved a stupid and crazy issue.
With values of rain 180 millimeters in some areas of the island (already Tuesday morning at Sainte-Rose§), the best thing to do were to protect life of the citizens by putting Guadeloupe on Orange code at 12am even at 5PM.... but the authority and Meteo-France decided to don't do it meanwhile Guadeloupe was dealing with the worst of this very bad weather between 3 and 5PM ! I'm shocked!
Here are some articles describing how sad the situation is.... as 4 people dead in their car (not a small one:a pickup!) during a big flooding . One people is also missing during this flood event! People are confused, stressed, upset. Let's hope that this event will end today very quickly without any climb of the death tool
Here are the complete and latests updates my carib friends

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 107741.php

Four dead, one missing
André-Jean VIDAL franceantilles.fr 05.01.2011

Violent rains killed since yesterday on the Department have been victims. Yesterday evening, a 4 x 4 was reported by the waters, les Abymes, section Chazeau Doubs. Relief were immediately dispatched on-site by colonel Gilles Bazir, the Département, at the demand of the Prefecture.
Since the early evening, Prefecture and service roads of Guadeloupe had warned through Guadeloupe, ROI that needed to be careful pop-up water climbs are always possible.
Later, RCI listeners reported a 4 x 4 in a flooded ravine fall and the disappearance of two people wore to the rescue of passengers of the vehicle.
Quickly, three bodies were found in the 4 x 4 - Harry Bernis Jean-Bart, his brother, Villard Jean-Bart, and wife, Huguette Jean-Bart-, searches were interrupted to resume this morning at dawn. Another body was found, that of Mr Félicianne, one of the two persons who had tried to intervene within a few hours earlier. A missing was always wanted Mr. Noyon.
During the night, informed by the prefect Jean Fabre, Marie - Luce Penchard, Delegate Minister for overseas, warned it the head of State. In Council of Ministers, it was the point of the situation. The decision was taken his immediate departure to leading a team of civil security to demonstrate, said, "the solidarity of the head of State and Government."
She indicated to go in the most affected municipalities soon arriving at Pointe-à-Pitre.
She had just before his departure, joined two Presidents of local communities, Jacques Gillot and Victorin Lurel, to initiate a working soon landed in Guadeloupe emergency meeting.
Guadeloupe was vigilance orange and the pointoise region schools remained closed. Prefect Fabre went on the scene, in les Abymes, join Eric Jalton, Mayor of this municipality, and Deputy Mayor responsible for the security team Clovis Popotte on war footing for the night.

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 107744.php
WEATHER
Marie-Luce Penchard arrived this afternoon
franceantilles.fr 05.01.2011

Marie-Luce Penchard, Minister of the overseas.
During the night, informed by the prefect Jean Fabre, Marie - Luce Penchard, Delegate Minister for overseas, warned it the head of State. In Council of Ministers, it was the point of the situation. The decision was taken his immediate departure to leading a team of civil security to demonstrate, said, "the solidarity of the head of State and Government."
She indicated to go in the most affected municipalities soon arriving at Pointe-à-Pitre this afternoon.
She had just before his departure, joined two Presidents of local communities, Jacques Gillot and Victorin Lurel, to initiate a working soon landed in Guadeloupe emergency meeting.

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 107748.php

"National solidarity" will speak, says Minister
A.-J CPVO franceantilles.fr 05.01.2011

Shortly before his departure from Paris, the delegate Minister attached to the overseas, Marie - Luce Penchard, made a brief statement.

"The prefect's mission to organize on-site different relief and early meetings." He is currently doing point the situation so that I am informed more quickly. I talked with jacques Gillot, President of the General Council, and Eric Jalton, Abymes, spontaneously responded to my request is to harmonize the various services to be effective. Civil security means been pre-positioned in Martinique and French Guiana. A hundred civil security men are ready to intervene from paris. The head of State requested that any means to be implemented to come to the rescue of Guadeloupe, so it appears cloudy front is still active and violent rains seem to expected late morning... »
Ms. Penchard is expected at around 17 hours (time of Guadeloupe). Eklle immediately held a meeting with the different services of the State, regional and General of the municipality of les Abymes advice.

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 107751.php
Guadeloupe in vigilance orange
franceantilles.fr 05.01.2011

Weather France services found alertness level from yellow to orange, because rain are again expected late morning.

Despite the alcalmie and the apparent Sun, weather France services found alertness level from yellow to orange, because rain are again expected end of the morning. Although showers should be less intensity, with the accumulation of rain and largely waterlogged soils, water new climbs waters are feared. Officials call for vigilance in the coming hours. An improvement is expected late in the day...

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 107752.php
Schools closed in les Abymes, Morne-to - water and Pointe-à-Pitre
franceantilles.fr 05.01.2011

After heavy rains of the night and yesterday Prefecture took the decision to schools in the affected municipalities: Abymes, Morne-to-l'Eau, Pointe-à-Pitre.

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 107756.php
Restored circulation, but cautiously recommended
franceantilles.fr 05.01.2011

Roads of Guadeloupe indicates that traffic is restored for 8 hours, this morning. Teams are currently conducting clean pavement in most affected areas: Grand-Fonds, the crossing route, greater pointoise... RD23-route des mamelles is reopened for 6 hours. However, given that announce the return of a rainy front end morning weather forecast, routes of Guadeloupe invites users to caution due to the saturation of the pavement.

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 107741.php
Four dead, one missing
André-Jean VIDAL franceantilles.fr 05.01.2011

Harry Bernis Jean-Bart, his brother, Villard Jean-Bart, and wife, Huguette Jean-Bart, born Guicheron and Judes Félicianne have lost their lives. Robert Noyon is missing...

Violent rains killed since yesterday on the Department have been victims. Yesterday evening, a 4 x 4 was reported by the waters, les Abymes, section Chazeau Doubs. Relief were immediately dispatched on-site by colonel Gilles Bazir, the Département, at the demand of the Prefecture.
Since the early evening, Prefecture and service roads of Guadeloupe had warned through Guadeloupe, ROI that needed to be careful pop-up water climbs are always possible.
Later, RCI listeners reported a 4 x 4 in a flooded ravine fall and the disappearance of two people wore to the rescue of passengers of the vehicle.
Quickly, three bodies were found in the 4 x 4 - Harry Bernis Jean-Bart, his brother, Villard Jean-Bart, and wife, Huguette Jean-Bart, born Guicheron - searches were interrupted to resume this morning at dawn. Another body was recovered, the Judes Félicianne, one of the two persons who had tried to intervene within a few hours earlier. A missing was always wanted Robert Noyon.
During the night, informed by the prefect Jean Fabre, Marie - Luce Penchard, Delegate Minister for overseas, warned it the head of State. In Council of Ministers, it was the point of the situation. The decision was taken his immediate departure to leading a team of civil security to demonstrate, said, "the solidarity of the head of State and Government."
She indicated to go in the most affected municipalities soon arriving at Pointe-à-Pitre.
She had just before his departure, joined two Presidents of local communities, Jacques Gillot and Victorin Lurel, to initiate a working soon landed in Guadeloupe emergency meeting.
Guadeloupe was vigilance orange and the pointoise region schools remained closed. Prefect Fabre went on the scene, in les Abymes, join Eric Jalton, Mayor of this municipality, and Deputy Mayor responsible for the security team Clovis Popotte on war footing for the night.

[Gustywind]

From the radio (RCI Guadeloupe), latest news: death toll clim to five, the one missing have been found dead The firemans confirm the dead .
1St Guadeloupe \ info (tv media)
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 42731.html

Guadeloupe
Today - 12: 45
By Maité KODA

Vigilance is still required
New rain expected today on the Department placed in orange alert by weather France. Four victims are already at.

Many motorists are found themselves trapped by the water and 1st Guadeloupe While the Department is already overshadowed by weather, new precipitation is expected. Will less strong than the previous, they speak nevertheless already waterlogged soil. Where new risks of rising waters, warns weather France tilted Department orange alert. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the day, with a slight improvement in the evening.

Difficult traffic
Rated traffic, there also caution is, as Jean-Gabriel Quillin, Deputy Director of roads of Guadeloupe 1st Guadeloupe microphone. "Our teams spent the night in signaling and deviations." There are still some points which remain difficult, particularly in Morne-to-l'eau, the mould and les Abymes. "RD106 between Abymes and Vieux-Bourg, Perrin remains impassable," says.
Highway crossing closed as a precautionary measure was reopened after inspection. However, remaining potentially responsible for materials and gravel roads, reduced speed and fields of preventive care remain recommended for motorists.

A first drama in les Abymes
During the night, many people found themselves stranded several hours in their vehicle.
Les Abymes, two cyclists, clinging to a tree branches have rescued by firefighters. Unfortunately others did not have this opportunity. It is always in les Abymes, in section Doubs, four people died and other scope disappeared on the night, according to a provisional record, updated at 08: 45 pm (local time). Three body recovered to an hour in the morning (local time) by firefighters are those of the occupants of a 4WD swept away by the waves: two brothers, aged 40 year and the wife of one of them. According to 1st Guadeloupe, two others missing, of which one was found in the morning, had tried to rescue the occupants of the vehicle.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php

The time for the next few hours on Guadeloupe
Animated radar is updated every 15 minutes, the satellite animation is updated hourly and forecast bulletin at least every 3 hours during the day.

Weather-France Guadeloupe Hello!
09 H 45 the level of vigilance is: Orange for heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Currently, only: Grande Terre, South is Basse-Terre de Baie-Mahault at Trois-Rivières and Marie-Galante temporarily spared by the rain.
In the next three hours, sometimes intense showers will continue to scroll down on the archipelago, alternating with a few lulls.
No area is protected, but the region of Morne-to - water and Grans-funds would remain extremely vulnerable.
These observations and their immediate evolution will be handed over to day to 12: 45.

[Gustywind]