Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like we gave up on this weekend's storm too quickly. The GFS is MUCH colder, though not enough for snow yet, it is darn close. The 0c isotherm is at the red river while moisture is kicking up from the south Texas. Awfully close. It's still only Tuesday. We should be in the NAM's realm tomorrow for further analysis.

You know, the great Dec. 1983 cold invasion began with a good Red River Valley snowfall.

And it was a bit of a surprise if I remember correctly.

I was a senior in high school and had to work that night. I remember that there was only a small chance of light snow earlier in the day but for some reason I had "analyzed" things (even without models or this board, I was a weather geek even back then ) and thought otherwise.

I was so convinced that a big snow event was in front of us that I even asked my parents what I should do about driving home that night if it did snow (I had never driven in snow before).

Well, you know what happened. The radar blossomed that evening, the forecast changed quickly, and it actually ended up snowing 4-7" in much of the Red River counties that night.

After that, the cold ushered itself in, the frigid weather grabbed hold, and Elvis didn't leave the building until 295 hours later.

[orangeblood]

This cold air will being extremely dense and won't erode away very easily. With the way the GFS depicts several overrunning events for next week and beyond, the recipe for a major ice storm could in the making for a portion of Texas sometime during this arctic outbreak. Which doesn't appear to be anytime soon

[iorange55]

A little baffled by the two new GFS runs. I'm going to keep scratching my head till the Euro comes out and sleep it off.

[HockeyTx82]

What are you seeing that you don't like?

[iorange55]

:uarrow: What are you seeing that you don't like?

Well that is why I am baffled I'm not sure if I like it or not. The cold leaves a little faster with the first front and then it kind of leaves the cold just hanging for awhile and dissolves a bit, then lets the door open for a bunch of cold to come down.


Also it's now a lot colder for this Sunday as mentioned by Ntxw.

[orangeblood]

It also seems too slow with the Arctic Front on Monday. Very odd GFS run tonight!!

[BigB0882]

The GFS typically has an odd run here or there. Let's see if this one will be thrown out, the beginning of a trend or something in between.

[Texas Snowman]

If you hang onto EVERY run of the GFS, you'll eventually run out of hair.

Maybe that explains why I see chrome when I look in the mirror!!!

[HockeyTx82]

Well I am off to bed, looking forward to catching up in the morning.



That's all I want to read about!!!

[Texas Snowman]

This cold air will being extremely dense and won't erode away very easily. With the way the GFS depicts several overrunning events for next week and beyond, the recipe for a major ice storm could in the making for a portion of Texas sometime during this arctic outbreak. Which doesn't appear to be anytime soon

Yeah, if we get out of this pattern without an ice storm SOMEWHERE in the southern Great Plains, I'll be surprised.

Snow is great, ice not so much.

I still remember the big 1979 storm and the huge Dec. 25, 2000 "Silver Christmas" storm up here in the Red River Valley.

Memorable for sure, but not much fun.

Not to mention the fact that if you bring in a week or more of severe cold weather and then add ice-storm induced power disruptions, that can prove to be a deadly mix...

[iorange55]

If you hang onto EVERY run of the GFS, you'll eventually run out of hair.

Maybe that explains why I see chrome when I look in the mirror!!!

Yeah trying not to latch onto any run. I mean either way it's going to get cold, I just hope it doesn't push it back too far. Like the price is right just come on down.

[Ntxw]

Lets not overreact. This is still an event beyond 200 hours. We've had jet lag since there's been so much talk and consistencies as if it were about to happen in a few days and we forget it's still the longer range. Of course they are going to show faults. You can't take something that long out too deeply . We still haven't grasped at how cold it could be this weekend yet. Which less than 12 hours ago showed relatively warm.

[Texas Snowman]

Lets not overreact. This is still an event beyond 200 hours. We've had jet lag since there's been so much talk and consistencies as if it were about to happen in a few days and we forget it's still the longer range. Of course they are going to show faults. You can't take something that long out too deeply . We still haven't grasped at how cold it could be this weekend yet. Which less than 12 hours ago showed relatively warm.

Right you are Ntxw.

The 'book' on the cold wave (from where I sit, anyway) is as follows:

1. The cold is coming.
2. The cold is coming.
3. The cold is coming.
4. How strong and long the cold will be is yet to be determined.
5. Whether or not there is a winter storm or two attached to the cold is still yet to be determined.
6. And finally, the cold is coming.


Did I miss anything?

[orangeblood]

Not trying to overreact but tonights Canadian run just got posted and looks somewhat similar to the GFS for the middle of next week. It even shows more energy crashing into the Pacific coast ridge and flattening it out. This is exactly what the NWSFO in Fort Worth was discussing this morning. At least to me, it appears The strength of the Pacific coast ridge is the key for sustained cold around here. If the Euro starts the same trend, we might need to tap the breaks somewhat on a prolonged event.

[Ntxw]

Frank Strait of Accuwx seems to think there would be a good swath of snow from the southern plains (North, NW Texas) into the northeast by the system coming out early next week. It will depend on the timing of the SW system and the cold air.

[iorange55]

Frank Strait of Accuwx seems to think there would be a good swath of snow from the southern plains (North, NW Texas) into the northeast by the system coming out early next week. It will depend on the timing of the SW system and the cold air.

I used to listen to him all the time last winter. He was right a lot of the times, except when he would forget about us down here.

Lots of anticipation to come.

[Ntxw]

Bet there's some nervous people out there with tonight's Euro. Model trend has seemed to push back the extremity. Fun thing is we get to do this all over again tomorrow!

[iorange55]

Bet there's some nervous people out there with tonight's Euro

Pushing the big blast back like the gfs. Not as prolonged cold. If we shouldn't latch onto what the models were showing before these past few runs then we don't need to latch onto what they're showing now. Plus at least the Sunday event got a little more exciting today.


I think next week and a bit beyond should just read "Could be cold to cool or cold to really really cold"

[Ntxw]

We'll be ok I think. It's January, it will get colder eventually before it gets warm again. You're right about this weekend's storm. We're heading in the right direction towards our foot of snow it depicted a few days ago and took away!

Anyone notice lately it seems that the day runs provide fun while the night runs kills things off? I wonder if the agencies do this on purpose to draw us into
viewing their model data!

To bring some happiness back, the UKMET (though I don't have access to more detailed data sadly) does have a nice low swinging through Texas with snow possibly on the backside late this weekend.

[wall_cloud]

My thoughts on the 00z run of the GFS...

I believe that its too slow with the cold air. with this strong southwest upper low moving across West TX on Saturday, I think it makes its way south maybe 12-24 hrs faster than the GFS progs. After the cold air is in place, I think it is over zealous with the lee cyclogenesis that eventually erodes the cold air dome. I think the cold air will be a bit more difficult to displace than the GFS wants to suggest, especially given its dense, arctic/siberian origins. As for precip...still weighing those possibilities for now.