Texas Winter 2010-2011
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- amawea
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Don't give up hope. The record low here in Arkansas was as late as the 13th of February. A whopping -29 below zero at Pond, Ar.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
I'm still putting my resources on this weekend's storm. I am not convinced it will play out as models currently depict. We are currently in that timeframe that models starts shifting back, which it is doing so. 

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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
FW office is tapping the brakes a little more this morning..
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS
TROUGH LEAVES ALASKA THIS WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING WILL
TAKE ITS PLACE. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO
TRANSPORT SIBERIAN AIR ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN INTO NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...STRENGTHENING THE POLAR LOW OVER NUNAVUT. THIS WOULD
LIKELY ALLOW THIS POLAR VORTEX TO INTENSIFY DRAMATICALLY NEXT WEEK
NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES (60 DEGREES
LATITUDE). AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...THE ALASKAN RIDGE
HAS BEEN PROGGED TO BE TOO FAR WEST FOR A SEVERE ARCTIC INTRUSION
INTO THE PLAINS. IF THE RIDGE IS OVER THE BERING STRAIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DOWNSTREAM KINK WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS DISCONNECT WITH THE DEEPENING POLAR LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT SPILLS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER. NEW 06Z GFS HAS ALASKAN RIDGE FURTHER EAST...
BUT CHAOTIC SPAGHETTI PLOTS CONFIRM THE UNAVOIDABLE UNCERTAINTY.
A COLD SPELL NEXT WEEK IS LIKELY...BUT THAT MAY BE THE EXTENT OF
THIS EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS.
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- vbhoutex
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Re:
northtxboy wrote:I know some of you are wanting to put the brakes on what is going to happen next week,,but,,I think we are in for it here in North Texas. I think we are going to be super cold highs in the 20s and teens and lows in the single digits. As far as snow/ice goes I think we will see some mix sunday night and snow monday, I think this cold air will come down just alittle bit early than what most mets are saying. If you live near the red river like I do you really need to keep an eye on this cause I think its going to get nasty.
With most of the models backing off some what makes you think that you guys will still see the extreme cold?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
I'm excited for this weekend and for the cold. There is still time for the models to switch back and forth, but even if they don't the 12z is still showing us being below freezing for a good chunk of next week. Which if we get some type of snow this weekend maybe it'll stick around.
Still some positive signs, and like wxman said it'll be interesting when we can actually see everything happening.
Oh and also if it happens to be it holds some of the cold back, that is not so bad. We have some winter to go
needs to even out.
Still some positive signs, and like wxman said it'll be interesting when we can actually see everything happening.
Oh and also if it happens to be it holds some of the cold back, that is not so bad. We have some winter to go

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
iorange55 wrote:I'm excited for this weekend and for the cold. There is still time for the models to switch back and forth, but even if they don't the 12z is still showing us being below freezing for a good chunk of next week. Which if we get some type of snow this weekend maybe it'll stick around.
Still some positive signs, and like wxman said it'll be interesting when we can actually see everything happening.
Oh and also if it happens to be it holds some of the cold back, that is not so bad. We have some winter to goneeds to even out.
I can't even bare to look at the GFS beyond 300 hours

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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Ntxw wrote: I can't even bare to look at the GFS beyond 300 hoursthe GOA returns and La Nina retakes control. Lets hope it's just lala land, hate that look.
Lol, but I don't trust these dirty models now. It'll probably be below zero here with a foot of snow then. If not....let's hope we get snow this weekend.
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- wxman57
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Re: Re:
vbhoutex wrote:With most of the models backing off some what makes you think that you guys will still see the extreme cold?
When an event loses model support it doesn't give one much confidence in forecasting an extreme event. I'd say that a period of extended sub-freezing temps remains a possibility (less than 50% chance of occurring) along the Gulf Coast, but I certainly wouldn't put such temps in a deterministic forecast just yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Wxmannn! I think your warm January's revenge is in Jeopardy
. Haven't seen you post much lately, nice seeing you back in action from the bunker!

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- srainhoutx
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
I'd keep an eye on the weekend, folks. Both the GFS and CMC suggest some stormy weather across TX prior to the cold front. 

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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Ntxw wrote:Wxmannn! I think your warm January's revenge is in Jeopardy. Haven't seen you post much lately, nice seeing you back in action from the bunker!
We're only 0.9F below normal here in Houston this January, but the month it young. I have my Arctic front voodoo doll out and am sticking pins in it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
The one big risk in all of this was the potential for there to be a disconnect from the Alaska ridge with the West Coast Pacific Ridge. And sure enough it appears that is coming to fruition. Not a good turn of events if you're a winter weather lover. But the one good thing is we might be able to get a good storm out of the tail end of the cold spell coming early next week.
I think we'll probably look back on this as one big tease
I think we'll probably look back on this as one big tease
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Once again, and as I posted earlier today, I would caution anyone from getting too hung up over the GFS runs for next week. I see huge differences alone at 240 hrs between last night's 0z and today's 12z. Lots of volatility.
Heck, the weekend forecast is changing as we speak and that's a lot closer in weather model-land than next week. In looking at south Texas, for example, in just 24 hours we've gone from a good shot at showers and maybe a few storms to now a decent shot at severe weather, especially in east and southeast Texas.
Heck, the weekend forecast is changing as we speak and that's a lot closer in weather model-land than next week. In looking at south Texas, for example, in just 24 hours we've gone from a good shot at showers and maybe a few storms to now a decent shot at severe weather, especially in east and southeast Texas.
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- srainhoutx
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Portastorm wrote:Once again, and as I posted earlier today, I would caution anyone from getting too hung up over the GFS runs for next week. I see huge differences alone at 240 hrs between last night's 0z and today's 12z. Lots of volatility.
Heck, the weekend forecast is changing as we speak and that's a lot closer in weather model-land than next week. In looking at south Texas, for example, in just 24 hours we've gone from a good shot at showers and maybe a few storms to now a decent shot at severe weather, especially in east and southeast Texas.
Don't even look at the Canadian...

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
TigerCraig wrote:Where can one see this Canadian? I'm a glutton for punishment!
Canadian isn't as cold.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Canadian is faster though, which is more typical of a dense air mass.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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