Texas Winter 2010-2011

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amawea
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#701 Postby amawea » Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:35 am

Don't give up hope. The record low here in Arkansas was as late as the 13th of February. A whopping -29 below zero at Pond, Ar.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#702 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:42 am

I'm still putting my resources on this weekend's storm. I am not convinced it will play out as models currently depict. We are currently in that timeframe that models starts shifting back, which it is doing so. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#703 Postby Tejas89 » Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:43 am

FW office is tapping the brakes a little more this morning..

STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS
TROUGH LEAVES ALASKA THIS WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING WILL
TAKE ITS PLACE. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO
TRANSPORT SIBERIAN AIR ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN INTO NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...STRENGTHENING THE POLAR LOW OVER NUNAVUT. THIS WOULD
LIKELY ALLOW THIS POLAR VORTEX TO INTENSIFY DRAMATICALLY NEXT WEEK
NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES (60 DEGREES
LATITUDE). AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...THE ALASKAN RIDGE
HAS BEEN PROGGED TO BE TOO FAR WEST FOR A SEVERE ARCTIC INTRUSION
INTO THE PLAINS. IF THE RIDGE IS OVER THE BERING STRAIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DOWNSTREAM KINK WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS DISCONNECT WITH THE DEEPENING POLAR LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT SPILLS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER. NEW 06Z GFS HAS ALASKAN RIDGE FURTHER EAST...
BUT CHAOTIC SPAGHETTI PLOTS CONFIRM THE UNAVOIDABLE UNCERTAINTY.
A COLD SPELL NEXT WEEK IS LIKELY...BUT THAT MAY BE THE EXTENT OF
THIS EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS.

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#704 Postby DonWrk » Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:20 am

Cold air coming earlier now it seems. Does this make the snow chances greater?
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Re:

#705 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:21 am

northtxboy wrote:I know some of you are wanting to put the brakes on what is going to happen next week,,but,,I think we are in for it here in North Texas. I think we are going to be super cold highs in the 20s and teens and lows in the single digits. As far as snow/ice goes I think we will see some mix sunday night and snow monday, I think this cold air will come down just alittle bit early than what most mets are saying. If you live near the red river like I do you really need to keep an eye on this cause I think its going to get nasty. :froze:

With most of the models backing off some what makes you think that you guys will still see the extreme cold?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#706 Postby iorange55 » Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:37 am

I'm excited for this weekend and for the cold. There is still time for the models to switch back and forth, but even if they don't the 12z is still showing us being below freezing for a good chunk of next week. Which if we get some type of snow this weekend maybe it'll stick around.

Still some positive signs, and like wxman said it'll be interesting when we can actually see everything happening.


Oh and also if it happens to be it holds some of the cold back, that is not so bad. We have some winter to go :lol: needs to even out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#707 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:44 am

iorange55 wrote:I'm excited for this weekend and for the cold. There is still time for the models to switch back and forth, but even if they don't the 12z is still showing us being below freezing for a good chunk of next week. Which if we get some type of snow this weekend maybe it'll stick around.

Still some positive signs, and like wxman said it'll be interesting when we can actually see everything happening.


Oh and also if it happens to be it holds some of the cold back, that is not so bad. We have some winter to go :lol: needs to even out.


I can't even bare to look at the GFS beyond 300 hours :lol: the GOA low returns and La Nina retakes control. Lets hope it's just lala land, hate that look.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#708 Postby iorange55 » Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:46 am

Ntxw wrote: I can't even bare to look at the GFS beyond 300 hours :lol: the GOA returns and La Nina retakes control. Lets hope it's just lala land, hate that look.




Lol, but I don't trust these dirty models now. It'll probably be below zero here with a foot of snow then. If not....let's hope we get snow this weekend.
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Re: Re:

#709 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:57 am

vbhoutex wrote:With most of the models backing off some what makes you think that you guys will still see the extreme cold?


When an event loses model support it doesn't give one much confidence in forecasting an extreme event. I'd say that a period of extended sub-freezing temps remains a possibility (less than 50% chance of occurring) along the Gulf Coast, but I certainly wouldn't put such temps in a deterministic forecast just yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#710 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:03 pm

Wxmannn! I think your warm January's revenge is in Jeopardy :P . Haven't seen you post much lately, nice seeing you back in action from the bunker!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#711 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:12 pm

I'd keep an eye on the weekend, folks. Both the GFS and CMC suggest some stormy weather across TX prior to the cold front. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#712 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:26 pm

Ntxw wrote:Wxmannn! I think your warm January's revenge is in Jeopardy :P . Haven't seen you post much lately, nice seeing you back in action from the bunker!


We're only 0.9F below normal here in Houston this January, but the month it young. I have my Arctic front voodoo doll out and am sticking pins in it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#713 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:30 pm

The one big risk in all of this was the potential for there to be a disconnect from the Alaska ridge with the West Coast Pacific Ridge. And sure enough it appears that is coming to fruition. Not a good turn of events if you're a winter weather lover. But the one good thing is we might be able to get a good storm out of the tail end of the cold spell coming early next week.

I think we'll probably look back on this as one big tease
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#714 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:50 pm

Once again, and as I posted earlier today, I would caution anyone from getting too hung up over the GFS runs for next week. I see huge differences alone at 240 hrs between last night's 0z and today's 12z. Lots of volatility.

Heck, the weekend forecast is changing as we speak and that's a lot closer in weather model-land than next week. In looking at south Texas, for example, in just 24 hours we've gone from a good shot at showers and maybe a few storms to now a decent shot at severe weather, especially in east and southeast Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#715 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:51 pm

Portastorm wrote:Once again, and as I posted earlier today, I would caution anyone from getting too hung up over the GFS runs for next week. I see huge differences alone at 240 hrs between last night's 0z and today's 12z. Lots of volatility.

Heck, the weekend forecast is changing as we speak and that's a lot closer in weather model-land than next week. In looking at south Texas, for example, in just 24 hours we've gone from a good shot at showers and maybe a few storms to now a decent shot at severe weather, especially in east and southeast Texas.


Don't even look at the Canadian... :cheesy:
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#716 Postby txagwxman » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:52 pm

Why was Frank Billing yesterday forecasting lows in the teens in Houston 10 days out?

I am at best 25F for a low at IAH. But should be a chilly week next week. Interestingly Sunday looking colder for SE TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#717 Postby TigerCraig » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:53 pm

Where can one see this Canadian? I'm a glutton for punishment!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#718 Postby txagwxman » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:58 pm

TigerCraig wrote:Where can one see this Canadian? I'm a glutton for punishment!

Canadian isn't as cold.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#719 Postby Kelarie » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:59 pm

Porta is Lucy yanking the football with the Canadian? :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#720 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 05, 2011 1:00 pm

Canadian is faster though, which is more typical of a dense air mass.
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