Texas Winter 2010-2011

[srainhoutx]

Where can one see this Canadian? I'm a glutton for punishment!

[txagwxman]

Porta is Lucy yanking the football with the Canadian?

Yea but it has sleet in Texarkana/Arkansas Sun.

[djmikey]

Wow..it seems like the models just stabbed everyone in the heart! I'll admit, I'm a little bit dissapointed aswell. I'm like a lot of you guys. If "anything" is going to happen, I want it to happen BIG whether it be winter, summer, spring or fall! Weather mets here in the HOU/BMT area I don't think have quite got the memo yet. Huge descrpancies between forecasts....

Anyway, again, this could just be a "moment" in the models. Tomorrow, they could jump on board as they were yesterday. We'll see..

[Portastorm]

Porta is Lucy yanking the football with the Canadian?

To me, the GFS in winter will always be Lucy. The Canadian? I believe Joe Bastardi from Accuweather calls it the "crazy uncle."

I just know that the Euro still consistently scores better than the GFS in 5-day forecasts, so I usually trust it more than the GFS.

[iorange55]

Euro the magic line is right on top of north texas on sunday. Keep on coming models.

[TigerCraig]

How is the Euro looking for next week in the deep south?

[txagwxman]

Euro the magic line is right on top of north texas on sunday. Keep on coming models.

Yea snow Texarkana Sunday, with cold rain in Houston. But this model seems to slow with the short-wave.

ECMWF has snow cover Dallas into TXK for Monday morning. Have to see it to believe though.

[Ntxw]

Slow is good! I'm still banking on the fact that the models are not aggressive enough with the cold air. I haven't given up on it yet, been paying attention closely to the ensembles the past few days for the particular system.

[orangeblood]

Anyone checked out the NOGAPS model for next Monday? It shows a Big winter storm breaking across the Northern half of Texas. Probably on the extreme side of the model suites but a trend is showing up none the less.

[Ntxw]

It is a bit extreme, but sure does look pretty. I usually only like the NOGAPS when it has at least one other model agreeing with it though.

[txagwxman]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/f144.gif
UKMET 1040 mb, but the coldest air of the season in Calgary Montana day 10 on the Euro.

[srainhoutx]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/f144.gif
UKMET 1040 mb, but the coldest air of the season in Calgary Montana day 10 on the Euro.

Much different look than the previous two runs of the Euro.

[iorange55]

It's almost looking like our chances of snow are going up and the bitter cold going down. Which is fine with me. I'll take 1 out of 2.

[Ntxw]

It's almost looking like our chances of snow are going up and the bitter cold going down. Which is fine with me. I'll take 1 out of 2.

They go hand in hand really. Without the snow, we won't likely have any chance of breaking record cold while it also deviates warming.

[WacoWx]

That NOGAPS looks like crack for a Waco weather junkie

[Kelarie]

With our luck, we will be out there kicking the ball with Lucy this weekend. It will be in the 80's and sunny. Yeah, thats it.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF best, GFS 2nd, UKMET suprising 3rd. Typically the UKMET out performs the GFS.

[Portastorm]

Wow ... after looking at the latest info on the Climate Prediction Center website, everything is lining up in terms of teleconnections by the middle of January for a stormy and very cold period for Texas. By mid January, the CPC progs:

AO -- very negative
NAO -- negative to neutral
PNA -- positive
MJO -- phases 7-8

It doesn't get better than this, folks, if you want cold and stormy winter weather.

[russham3]

Wow ... after looking at the latest info on the Climate Prediction Center website, everything is lining up in terms of teleconnections by the middle of January for a stormy and very cold period for Texas. By mid January, the CPC progs:

AO -- very negative
NAO -- negative to neutral
PNA -- positive
MJO -- phases 7-8

It doesn't get better than this, folks, if you want cold and stormy winter weather.

Talk about a post that went straight over my head!!!!!!!!!

[Portastorm]

Sorry russham3. My bad. Welcome to Storm 2k!

A poor man's explanation:

AO -- Arctic Oscillation. When it is negative, it means very cold Arctic air is pooled to the north of us and high pressure is over the Arctic regions and lower pressure in the middle latitudes. This tends to drain it southward towards us.

NAO -- North Atlantic Oscillation. When this is negative, it usually means a large trough is over the eastern (and maybe central) US. When it is neutral or positive, it can mean ridging over the east and a trough over the west or central US (troughs mean stormy weather). Neutral can also mean a zonal flow.

PNA -- Pacific/North American Teleconnection -- a positive PNA means ridging over Hawaii and the intermountain region of the western US and often means below normal temps for our area.

MJO -- Madden-Julian Oscillation -- involves areas of storminess and convection in the tropics. When the MJO is in Phase 7 or 8, it tends to average colder and wetter than normal in our area.

Anyone feel free to chime in or improve my rough explanation. I'm sure it can be improved!